The resource rich lands won't help him much if he can't sell them.
Politics being what it is, though, how long are those markets going to keep sanctions in place? And there are growing African markets which may or may not implement sanctions, and China appears to be sitting on the fence on this one at the moment - who have their own resources, but might see a benefit in buying Russian/Ukrainian stock just to show the West that they can.
Russia isn't short of resources anyway.
I'm not that up to speed on Russia's remaining stocks of things (I've only been reading in any depth about Ukraine's this week), but I'm given to understand that the Ukrainian resources are being gathered with up-to-date technology in a way that Russian supplies aren't? May well be wrong on that, though, just an impression I got from bits and pieces here and there.
You are right that this will help his image domestically, in the short term. However, the Russian economy is in the toilet and his people are already noticing. That's why he's doing this.
So he'll tighten their belts for them, and then blame it on the unfair sanctions imposed by Western forces trying to keep their historic lands from them... and, with the media in his pocket there, it'll probably work, at least for a while.
No, we have the Ukrainians. Do you think it's some tin pot little country? It's the seventh largest in Europe by population and the fourth largest geographically.
It is, some of that is the problem. There's an enormous border to spread those soldiers around, and it's a large country by population it isn't an enormously military country - they are outnumbered badly. Russian investment in military spending is significant, and although their equipment isn't top notch, it's geared towards an occupation, and it plays to Russia's strengths. Ukraine has been given/sold a fair amount in recent times, but they're both generally less experienced and not experienced in that weaponry.
And then there's the loyalty question - part of the problem in Eastern Ukraine is that there is a significant minority that favour returning to the Russian sphere of influence rather than cozying up to the West. How many of those are going to be in the military, how many of them are going to operate as a fifth column behind any Ukrainian front? That's a question that I've not seen many places even asking, let alone trying to come up with sensible answers.
If the conflict lasts a year or more, Putin is utterly screwed. The bodies will be piling up. The economy (already in the toilet) will be completely fucked.
And he knows that. He's going to push for an expanded occupation of the Eastern Ukrainian regions already disputed, rig elections there to justify his presence, then concede to demands for a ceasefire and see what he can keep hold of. The West, desperate to look like peacemakers, will concede for the headline of bringing the madman to heel, and he'll restock and then try it again in six or seven years time.
O.
