Arming the Ukrainians

[Spud]

I suppose one has to feel sorry for people like Spud who have been taken in by the EVIL Putin.

Can I try and explain again my view? I don't condone Russia invading Ukraine. But I'm not convinced that our response of arming Ukraine is right. Russia is not going to attack NATO, which has a much larger military, so it won't make us safer. What do we gain from pushing them back to the original border? To say that we've helped Ukraine? At a huge cost to our economies and the Ukrainian people. If we give Russia what it wants - Ukrainian neutrality, more freedom for Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine - everybody will be better off.
Here is an interesting take on Johnson's recent speech in Kiev:
https://youtu.be/GzNOXWjcLVs

[ad_orientem]

Can I try and explain again my view? I don't condone Russia invading Ukraine. But I'm not convinced that our response of arming Ukraine is right. Russia is not going to attack NATO, which has a much larger military, so it won't make us safer. What do we gain from pushing them back to the original border? To say that we've helped Ukraine? At a huge cost to our economies and the Ukrainian people. If we give Russia what it wants - Ukrainian neutrality, more freedom for Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine - everybody will be better off.
Here is an interesting take on Johnson's recent speech in Kiev:
https://youtu.be/GzNOXWjcLVs

Fuck off! Essentially your position is, it's not our problem so let's allow Russia to commit genocide in Ukraine, Russian oil and gas is more important to us than Ukrainian lives. There is only one morally right outcome here, Ukrainian victory. We have a moral obligation to make sure that happens. They are fighting for the same values we hold to. Russian "peace" only brings terror and death to the people they claim to be liberating.

[Dicky Underpants]

Can I try and explain again my view? I don't condone Russia invading Ukraine. But I'm not convinced that our response of arming Ukraine is right. Russia is not going to attack NATO, which has a much larger military, so it won't make us safer. What do we gain from pushing them back to the original border? To say that we've helped Ukraine? At a huge cost to our economies and the Ukrainian people. If we give Russia what it wants - Ukrainian neutrality, more freedom for Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine - everybody will be better off.
Here is an interesting take on Johnson's recent speech in Kiev:
https://youtu.be/GzNOXWjcLVs

According to a friend of mine, who lived in the Ukraine for two years, the 'Russian speakers' had pretty much all the freedoms of other Ukrainians (a very large number of whom also spoke Russian anyway).  The 'separatists' certainly didn't need liberating.

[jeremyp]

Maybe they do have the right to fight back, but as I've said earlier, on their own they would be better off making a peace treaty with Russia.

They had a peace treaty with Russia. Putin ignored it.

[jeremyp]

And if we'd done that, and sat down and talked with them as mature adults

They aren't mature adults.

[jeremyp]

Can I try and explain again my view? I don't condone Russia invading Ukraine. But I'm not convinced that our response of arming Ukraine is right. Russia is not going to attack NATO, which has a much larger military, so it won't make us safer.

It's already made us safer.

Think of the benefits of this invasion:

- Russia has revealed that its military is corrupt and inept
- Russia will take years to build its army back up into a credible force
- Several European countries that were dangerously reliant on Russian energy have seen the errors of their ways
- Russia will no longer be able to buy major sports events.

What do we gain from pushing them back to the original border?

Them not gaining from their violence

If we give Russia what it wants

Thy'll think they can take more just by rolling their tanks into other countries.

Ukrainian neutrality

Russia wants Ukrainian subjugation, not neutrality.

more freedom for Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine - everybody will be better off.

Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine were in a functioning democracy before Russia invaded. They aren't now.

[ad_orientem]

It amazes me how anyone could still think that if we just talked and gave Russia what it wants that we would have peace. There's absolutely no evidence for it. Neither can I see any evidence that Russia can be rehabilitated. People like Spud are essentially victim blamers. How dare Ukraine fight back! Wouldn't it be better if you just peacefully let Russia rape, torture and kill you. They're bullies and in some cases simply in the pocket of the Kremlin.

[jeremyp]

How many people have you ever heard of falling from a hospital window?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62750584

The chairman of Russia's Lukoil oil giant, Ravil Maganov, has died after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, reports say.

He was critical of the Ukraine war apparently.

[Udayana]

How many people have you ever heard of falling from a hospital window?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62750584

He was critical of the Ukraine war apparently.

.. Indeed .. but it so much faster and more convenient than leaving a trail of polonium through Moscow

[Spud]

Essentially your position is, it's not our problem so let's allow Russia to commit genocide in Ukraine, Russian oil and gas is more important to us than Ukrainian lives.

No: it's not our problem and the more we get involved, the more lives will be lost.

There is only one morally right outcome here, Ukrainian victory. We have a moral obligation to make sure that happens.

Don't forget Afghanistan. And while you're at it, Yemen, and the Tamils in Sri Lanka could have used some anti-tank equipment.

They are fighting for the same values we hold to. Russian "peace" only brings terror and death to the people they claim to be liberating.

Health is more important than possessions.

[ad_orientem]

No: it's not our problem and the more we get involved, the more lives will be lost.

Given Putin's history...fuck it! Given Russia's history, what evidence do you have that less lives will be lost? A country whose only real achievement is aggression and genocide against its neighbours.

Don't forget Afghanistan. And while you're at it, Yemen, and the Tamils in Sri Lanka could have used some anti-tank equipment.

Whatabout, whatabout, whatabout! Apart from the obvious attrocities Russia itself is committing, not only in Ukraine, but also Syria, Africa etc, there is only one correct response to that (see the meme below).

Health is more important than possessions.

Who the bloody hell was talking about possessions? What does rape, torture and murder have to do with possessions?

[Spud]

Given Putin's history...fuck it! Given Russia's history, what evidence do you have that less lives will be lost? A country whose only real achievement is aggression and genocide against its neighbours.

What happens if you give your son a knife? It's clear that those carrying knives get stabbed more than those who don't.

[Spud]

Whatabout, whatabout, whatabout! Apart from the obvious attrocities Russia itself is committing, not only in Ukraine, but also Syria, Africa etc, there is only one correct response to that.

Don't do business with them.

[ad_orientem]

Don't do business with them.

Yes, don't do business with Russia. Not only that, we need to make sure lthe RuSSian Federation breaks up.

[Gordon]

Moderator

Several posts have been removed that contained insults and were little more than a spat - so, gents (Spud and Ad-O), could we have less heat and more light please.

[jeremyp]

No: it's not our problem and the more we get involved, the more lives will be lost.

The only way the war is going to stop is if Russia withdraws its forces from Ukraine. We need to do everything possible to facilitate Russia's defeat (short of putting NATO boots on the ground).

[jeremyp]

What happens if you give your son a knife? It's clear that those carrying knives get stabbed more than those who don't.

Brilliant idea. Let's not give guns to our soldiers. That way, any wars we get involved in will end quickly with minimal loss of life.

Ukraine is fighting for its existence. It's not going to stop just because we don't give it weapons. There are two ways this war ends:

1. the total subjugation of Ukraine, including probably genocide

2. The defeat of Russia.

Be honest: which would you prefer to see?

Also, if you think Russia is going to win, I'm afraid you are probably wrong.

[ad_orientem]

RuSSia is beyond rehabilitation. I don't buy all the rubbish that this is just Putin's war. No! This is definitely RuSSia's war. RuSSians support this. People from Moskow and St. Petersburg aren't being sent to the front but they ignore what is happening there. Sanctions need to hit them for things to change. One of the reasons we need a visa ban.

[Nearly Sane]

RuSSia is beyond rehabilitation. I don't buy all the rubbish that this is just Putin's war. No! This is definitely RuSSia's war. RuSSians support this. People from Moskow and St. Petersburg aren't being sent to the front but they ignore what is happening there. Sanctions need to hit them for things to change. One of the reasons we need a visa ban.

What % of Russians would be affected by a visa ban, and for those unaffected what effect might it have on their motivations?

[Udayana]

What % of Russians would be affected by a visa ban, and for those unaffected what effect might it have on their motivations?

This was an interesting report:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/23/helsinki-airport-russian-tourists-europe-travel-finland

Clearly only a small % of Russians would be affected by a visa ban, as the mass of people don't travel abroad.

However. The control that Putin and the Kremlin has over Russia is manged through the middle classes. If they can continue living the lives (as well as possible) that they have slowly become accustomed too they won't actively challenge the government lies and propaganda that keeps the country suppressed.
 

[Maeght]

What happens if you give your son a knife? It's clear that those carrying knives get stabbed more than those who don't.

Do you have some data on that?

[ad_orientem]

This was an interesting report:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/23/helsinki-airport-russian-tourists-europe-travel-finland

Clearly only a small % of Russians would be affected by a visa ban, as the mass of people don't travel abroad.

However. The control that Putin and the Kremlin has over Russia is manged through the middle classes. If they can continue living the lives (as well as possible) that they have slowly become accustomed too they won't actively challenge the government lies and propaganda that keeps the country suppressed.

Exactly this. It is that middle class of Moscow and St. Peterburg Russians that can bring change...if they want to. A visa ban will hit them. I know the argument, expressed by Scholtz and Macron, that expossing them to Western values might change them, but they've already had 30 years to do so and it hasn't worked. As for the rest of Russia, a visa ban won't really affect them. There we need to support separatist groups like the Chechens (not the Putin supporting goat molesting Kadyrovites) and Buryats.

[Nearly Sane]

This was an interesting report:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/23/helsinki-airport-russian-tourists-europe-travel-finland

Clearly only a small % of Russians would be affected by a visa ban, as the mass of people don't travel abroad.

However. The control that Putin and the Kremlin has over Russia is manged through the middle classes. If they can continue living the lives (as well as possible) that they have slowly become accustomed too they won't actively challenge the government lies and propaganda that keeps the country suppressed.

Isn't this just another version of the financial restrictions in place. I'm not arguing against it but I doubt whether it will have the effect on those affected as is assumed, particularly given it's only ever going to be piecemeal. And I don't think those not affected are the sheep you seem to think.

The big question to me is whether the semi united front survives much longer. Public opinion in Austria is already moving towards a negotiated statement.

[jeremyp]

Do you have some data on that?

It seems plausible. In the UK, most people don't carry knives - it's illegal. If you are carrying a knife, it's probably because you are looking for trouble.

The analogy doesn't really work when you scale it up to nation states and one state shares a border with another state whose leader wants to reestablish its former empire.

[Udayana]

Exactly this. It is that middle class of Moscow and St. Peterburg Russians that can bring change...if they want to. A visa ban will hit them. I know the argument, expressed by Scholtz and Macron, that expossing them to Western values might change them, but they've already had 30 years to do so and it hasn't worked. As for the rest of Russia, a visa ban won't really affect them. There we need to support separatist groups like the Chechens (not the Putin supporting goat molesting Kadyrovites) and Buryats.

It would be great if the regions had honest democratic leaders to resist or fight back against Moscow, but they don't. The West (ie. us) have been actively helping Russia corrupt, exploit and rob them since Gorbachev was ousted.

All we could do now would be to arm them as we are doing for Ukraine - but I can't see billions being handed back to do this - even those in the oligarchs' secret accounts.