Arming the Ukrainians

[Udayana]

Isn't this just another version of the financial restrictions in place. I'm not arguing against it but I doubt whether it will have the effect on those affected as is assumed, particularly given it's only ever going to be piecemeal. And I don't think those not affected are the sheep you seem to think.

The big question to me is whether the semi united front survives much longer. Public opinion in Austria is already moving towards a negotiated statement.

Agreed, it is only piecemeal and not a solution. They are not sheep but powerless without access to information. Looking back over the way they have been dealt with since 1945 they may well choose to stay as far from trouble as they can?

[Udayana]

...
The big question to me is whether the semi united front survives much longer. Public opinion in Austria is already moving towards a negotiated statement.

Europe could go for a negotiated settlement - but it won't solve anything for longer than a winter. Putin will reinforce his position and then continue tweaking until he can prise loose another area, possibly a Baltic state, sufficiently so that it can be attacked without Nato putting in troops to fight directly.

Possibly a winter is enough for Europe to get to grips with the energy problems and arm up enough to confront Russia in the coming war?
 

[Nearly Sane]

Europe could go for a negotiated settlement - but it won't solve anything for longer than a winter. Putin will reinforce his position and then continue tweaking until he can prise loose another area, possibly a Baltic state, sufficiently so that it can be attacked without Nato putting in troops to fight directly.

Possibly a winter is enough for Europe to get to grips with the energy problems and arm up enough to confront Russia in the coming war?

I don't think there will be a negotiated settlement this side of winter but if there isn't unanimity then I think there will just be an aim to get through the winter. To get through that winter is likely to have major impacts on Getmany and how they regard themselves. The already huge changes in the Green Party in Germany show the difference this is making.

A lot will depend on the US midterms as well.

[Spud]

According to a friend of mine, who lived in the Ukraine for two years, the 'Russian speakers' had pretty much all the freedoms of other Ukrainians (a very large number of whom also spoke Russian anyway).  The 'separatists' certainly didn't need liberating.

Okay - good to have some first hand evidence. I had a read up about the history of the Russian language in Ukraine, and got the impression that there's been a lot of migration from Russia in the last century or two, so that in some areas Russian is the main language spoken.
I also read about Minsk and Minsk II. I can see how it appears to favour Russia in terms of giving them influence over Ukrainian foreign policy, if pro-Russian groups who could veto joining NATO are represented in central government. It seems similar to the N Ireland situation where the migration of English and Scottish people led to the creation of an independent territory. The difference being linguistic instead of religious.
The point is, if the population of a region within Ukraine has become so distinct as to speak a different language, shouldn't it be allowed to become independent? That's one way in which countries come and go, after all.

[Spud]

They had a peace treaty with Russia. Putin ignored it.

From what I've read, it's the Ukrainian government that ignored it?

[Spud]

Who the bloody hell was talking about possessions? What does rape, torture and murder have to do with possessions?

What I meant was that anyone can say they will fight for their home and land, but I just wonder what they are thinking the moment after a limb is ripped off and the real pain starts? Regret? I should have just gone far away?

[ad_orientem]

What I meant was that anyone can say they will fight for their home and land, but I just wonder what they are thinking the moment after a limb is ripped off and the real pain starts? Regret? I should have just gone far away?

But it seems it's a risk Ukrainians are willing to take. It's the price of freedom. Who are we to say they can't take it? Surely it's their choice? All they have done is ask for help doing that. We absolutely should do that. Stop victim blaming!

[Spud]

But it seems it's a risk Ukrainians are willing to take. It's the price of freedom. Who are we to say they can't take it? Surely it's their choice? All they have done is ask for help doing that. We absolutely should do that. Stop victim blaming!

Unless you've been seriously injured yourself, you won't understand. As someone who has experienced that, it's my responsibility to discourage anyone from taking a risk assuming the pain of injury will be worth it. It isn't worth it.

[Spud]

Not to mention inflicting such pain on someone else.

[ad_orientem]

So I was right, in your opinion Ukrainians should just let Russia rape, torture and kill them.

[Aruntraveller]

Unless you've been seriously injured yourself, you won't understand. As someone who has experienced that, it's my responsibility to discourage anyone from taking a risk assuming the pain of injury will be worth it. It isn't worth it.

Seriously injured in what context?

In the context of being beaten up on the street or in a car crash or in the context of being subjugated by a foreign power.

The pain of injury may not have been worth it for you in your context.

The pain of injury may well be worth it from Ukraine's pov due to their knowledge of what Russia is capable of. Something you are in no position to understand.

Finally, in WW2 was the pain suffered by people in the various resistance movements across Europe really not worth it?

[SteveH]

I'm sure the conflict isn't black and white, and I'm sure that the Ukrainians have behaved badly on occasion, because that's always the case in war, but in the final analysis Ukraine is the victim, Russia the aggressor. Spud seems to see it as black and white the other way round.

[Nearly Sane]

I'm sure the conflict isn't black and white, and I'm sure that the Ukrainians have behaved badly on occasion, because that's always the case in war, but in the final analysis Ukraine is the victim, Russia the aggressor. Spud seems to see it as black and white the other way round.

I mostly agree with this but I don't think Spud does see it as a black and white. He doesn't seem to be saying Russia is good but rather that the least worst option all round is some compromise that is more beneficial to Russia than most posters on here might want to accept.  There's an element of realpolitik in his approach, even if for me, an oddly naive one.

[jeremyp]

I don't think there will be a negotiated settlement this side of winter but if there isn't unanimity then I think there will just be an aim to get through the winter. To get through that winter is likely to have major impacts on Getmany and how they regard themselves. The already huge changes in the Green Party in Germany show the difference this is making.

A lot will depend on the US midterms as well.

An in depth analysis of the current economic situation with respect to the war, including how Europe will cope with the loss of Russian hydrocarbons

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce5TR-qWCk4

tl;dr is that Europe is going to be OK.

[jeremyp]

Unless you've been seriously injured yourself, you won't understand. As someone who has experienced that, it's my responsibility to discourage anyone from taking a risk assuming the pain of injury will be worth it. It isn't worth it.

It is if the alternative is death.

[Spud]

So I was right, in your opinion Ukrainians should just let Russia rape, torture and kill them.

That would not happen if they agreed to a peace treaty; one which might not suit them but at least saves them their lives.

[Spud]

Seriously injured in what context?

In the context of being beaten up on the street or in a car crash or in the context of being subjugated by a foreign power.

The pain of injury may not have been worth it for you in your context.

The pain of injury may well be worth it from Ukraine's pov due to their knowledge of what Russia is capable of. Something you are in no position to understand.

Finally, in WW2 was the pain suffered by people in the various resistance movements across Europe really not worth it?

The context for my injury was I slipped on the stairs, my thumb caught a strut of a stairlift rail, my momentum meant that I couldn't pull my hand away in time and the thumb was ripped backwards. Had to get it relocated in H. Ligament gone, now a year later I think an osteophyte is helping to restrict the movement to protect it.
The pain and loss of function was such that I would have traded everything
for it not to have happened. I would think the same in any other context.
Re: WW2, I don't think we know whether those who died considered it worth it when they were at the point of death.

[ad_orientem]

That would not happen if they agreed to a peace treaty; one which might not suit them but at least saves them their lives.

There you go thinking that they can be trusted. The word deluded comes to mind. Your world view is one where the bully always gets to win. Might is right and victim blaming.

[Spud]

Brilliant idea. Let's not give guns to our soldiers. That way, any wars we get involved in will end quickly with minimal loss of life.

But disarmament (nuclear) is something we once aimed for. I think the principle holds whether its kids with knives or countries with guns. The Bible mentions this too - don't amass horses (Moses; Solomon disobeyed this) don't take a census of your fighting men with some thought as to increasing the size of the army (as David did).

Ukraine is fighting for its existence. It's not going to stop just because we don't give it weapons. There are two ways this war ends:

1. the total subjugation of Ukraine, including probably genocide

2. The defeat of Russia.

Be honest: which would you prefer to see?

Also, if you think Russia is going to win, I'm afraid you are probably wrong.

The defeat of Russia would I think involve far more casualties. Where do you get the idea there would be genocide if Ukraine agreed to Russia's terms?

[Nearly Sane]

The context for my injury was I slipped on the stairs, my thumb caught a strut of a stairlift rail, my momentum meant that I couldn't pull my hand away in time and the thumb was ripped backwards. Had to get it relocated in H. Ligament gone, now a year later I think an osteophyte is helping to restrict the movement to protect it.
The pain and loss of function was such that I would have traded everything
for it not to have happened. I would think the same in any other context.
Re: WW2, I don't think we know whether those who died considered it worth it when they were at the point of death.

The way you have written this means you would have accepted the deaths of 6 million Jews to have avoided your injury.

[Spud]

I mostly agree with this but I don't think Spud does see it as a black and white. He doesn't seem to be saying Russia is good but rather that the least worst option all round is some compromise that is more beneficial to Russia than most posters on here might want to accept.  There's an element of realpolitik in his approach, even if for me, an oddly naive one.

Nearly Sane, thank you. I appreciate this comment.

[ad_orientem]

Where do you get the idea there would be genocide if Ukraine agreed to Russia's terms?

Just about everything it's ever said and done, not only in modern history but throughout its whole existence.

[Spud]

The way you have written this means you would have accepted the deaths of 6 million Jews to have avoided your injury.

It was supposed to mean I would have traded everything I owned to avoid it.

[jeremyp]

It was supposed to mean I would have traded everything I owned to avoid it.

You would have traded everything you own and then the Nazis would have killed all the Jews anyway. They were planning to do the same with the Slavic populations of Eastern Europe too after they beat Russia, by the way.

The death toll would have been much higher had we let Hitler do want he wants. Putin is not in thew same league but the same principle applies.

[Aruntraveller]

The context for my injury was I slipped on the stairs, my thumb caught a strut of a stairlift rail, my momentum meant that I couldn't pull my hand away in time and the thumb was ripped backwards. Had to get it relocated in H. Ligament gone, now a year later I think an osteophyte is helping to restrict the movement to protect it.
The pain and loss of function was such that I would have traded everything
for it not to have happened. I would think the same in any other context.
Re: WW2, I don't think we know whether those who died considered it worth it when they were at the point of death.

I'm sorry about your accident, but it is not analogous to an invasion.

I don't think it works. Accidents are random. This war is not random.

I don't know what kind of world you think we would live in if every country just bowed down to an aggressor. I would suggest it would be even worse than the current world we live in, and it's already pretty shitty.

The problem with pacifism, which is what you appear to be advocating, is that it only works if everyone is a pacifist. Whilst I agree with the central tenet of pacifism namely that disputes should be settled by peaceful means, I have to recognise that all too often that is not an option left open to people/countries due to the actions of others. Others include one Vladimir Putin.