Author Topic: Arming the Ukrainians  (Read 118861 times)

Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #575 on: September 26, 2022, 09:37:46 PM »
Of-course - but what on earth do you think it is? And how long do you think this has been going on?
It started when the
previous Ukrainian  President wouldn't sign an agreement initiating closer relations with the EU. There were people in Eastern and Southern Ukraine who wanted closer ties with Russia. There were demonstrations by both sides and the separatists took over government buildings, leading to the Ukrainian military going in and that's when the fighting started.  Russia began to support the DPR and LPR , which is where I think the situation got worse because then NATO began to side with Ukraine, so we now have a NATO v Russia proxy war.
If they had been left to fight it out I think Ukraine would have taken back control of these regions. But what would it take for them to allow them a referendum? 

Outrider

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #576 on: September 27, 2022, 11:29:29 AM »
Should we be looking at the initial cause of the conflict, though?

Putin's need for political capital and economic income as the corruption that's characterised his leadership and kept him in power starts to have sufficient impact that the populace are no longer as compliant as he needs them to be... you can look at it, I don't see how it helps.

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I understand that Russia perhaps wrongly stepped in in 2014 in support of the separatists

Perhaps wrongly?

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...but is there not a case for a genuine referendum on independence?

There's a case - is it a strong one? Well, did parties representing that point of view gather sufficient representation in the Ukrainian parliament to give a mandate for it? It would seem not.

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It doesn't seem that different from Scotland saying they want closer ties with the EU and to break away from UK.

Actually it's more akin to the Cornish independence movement - Scotland has its own partial legislature, and has established a political mandate to look at independence once, and there is a strong movement attempting to do so again. In Cornwall there are a few bolshy locals shouting into the darkness, there is no evidence of a popular movement, no political mandate and no evidence that there's any significant will in the region even for the discussion.

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Then the people could decide, and Russia and Ukraine would have to agree to respect the result.

Why waste the time and the money when there's no basis except for Putin's propoganda to think that this was ever really an issue?

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ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #577 on: September 27, 2022, 11:40:05 AM »
It never was an issue as far as I can make out. This was entirely of Russia's making, sending in FSB agents and mercenaries (Wagner) from the very beginning. Russia doesn't give a shit about the people of Donetsk and Luhansk, they're merely canon fodder. Just look at how the Russian's equip them.
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jeremyp

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #578 on: September 27, 2022, 11:41:04 AM »
Ok so it's completely different from the UK.
Still, why can't the pro-Russian regions in Ukraine have a referendum as long as it is done fairly?

Are there any pro-Russian regions in Ukraine?

There was a referendum in Ukraine in 1991 about leaving the USSR. Every region voted in favour of leaving. Yes, it was a long time ago, but recent events have probably hardened that attitude (assuming the Russians haven't murdered all the people who are not pro-Russia).
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Udayana

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #579 on: September 27, 2022, 11:53:28 AM »
It started when the
previous Ukrainian  President wouldn't sign an agreement initiating closer relations with the EU. There were people in Eastern and Southern Ukraine who wanted closer ties with Russia. There were demonstrations by both sides and the separatists took over government buildings, leading to the Ukrainian military going in and that's when the fighting started.  Russia began to support the DPR and LPR , which is where I think the situation got worse because then NATO began to side with Ukraine, so we now have a NATO v Russia proxy war.
If they had been left to fight it out I think Ukraine would have taken back control of these regions. But what would it take for them to allow them a referendum?

Nonsense. Did you decide on the view you would take before looking for evidence? Have you examined any of the history at all?
 
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Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #580 on: September 27, 2022, 05:22:53 PM »
Are there any pro-Russian regions in Ukraine?
Luhansk is further East than Moscow, does that count ;)
This photo shows a protest in Donetsk in 2014.

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There was a referendum in Ukraine in 1991 about leaving the USSR. Every region voted in favour of leaving. Yes, it was a long time ago, but recent events have probably hardened that attitude (assuming the Russians haven't murdered all the people who are not pro-Russia).
Maybe every region wasn't voting for what is now the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement. Good point though.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2022, 05:25:53 PM by Spud »

Dicky Underpants

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #581 on: September 27, 2022, 05:39:55 PM »
Are there any pro-Russian regions in Ukraine?

There was a referendum in Ukraine in 1991 about leaving the USSR. Every region voted in favour of leaving. Yes, it was a long time ago, but recent events have probably hardened that attitude (assuming the Russians haven't murdered all the people who are not pro-Russia).
According to my friend Alex, who lived there for two years, recent events have indeed hardened that attitude, including a number of people whose first language is Russian, and who previously might have equivocated over their stance somewhat.
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ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #582 on: September 27, 2022, 09:01:49 PM »
Btw, we all know that Russia loves to call everyone who opposes them Nazis, so we should shouldn't be surprised that Russia accuses Ukraine of this. Here is some evidence that Russia orchestrated the Nazi narrative against Ukraine.

https://novelscience.substack.com/p/stories-about-ukrainian-nazis-were
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ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #583 on: September 27, 2022, 10:05:27 PM »
Iranian women have more balls than Russian men.
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ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #584 on: September 28, 2022, 09:31:45 AM »
Yet another escalation by Russia. Time to call Putin's bluff!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63057966
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jeremyp

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #585 on: September 28, 2022, 10:02:38 AM »
Yet another escalation by Russia. Time to call Putin's bluff!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63057966

And if anybody thinks the referendums being carried out have any meaning whatsoever, there's this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63049386

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In September many families were forced to send their children to Russian-administered schools even though their children would be exposed to the Kremlin's propaganda.

"If you don't send your child to school, it's a litmus test for you - it means you have pro-Ukrainian views," explains Ms Kumok. "I know parents who had to tell their seven-year-old child not to talk about things discussed at home with anyone at school. Otherwise the child could be taken away. That was really awful."
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Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #586 on: September 28, 2022, 10:57:21 AM »
Yet another escalation by Russia. Time to call Putin's bluff!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63057966
Why would Russia blow them up when it could have just kept the taps closed, and when a group of US assault ships had been 30km away a few days before?
"Kearsarge and Gunston Hall completed port calls in Gdynia and Gdansk, respectively, last week."
https://news.usni.org/2022/09/26/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-sept-26-2022
« Last Edit: September 28, 2022, 11:06:27 AM by Spud »

Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #587 on: September 28, 2022, 11:25:54 AM »
Why would Russia blow them up when it could have just kept the taps closed, and when a group of US assault ships had been 30km away a few days before?
"Kearsarge and Gunston Hall completed port calls in Gdynia and Gdansk, respectively, last week."
https://news.usni.org/2022/09/26/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-sept-26-2022
Training to sabotage western infrastructure and a warning of intent. It should be obvious that Putin is prepared to sacrifice anything to try to gain the bigger advantage.

ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #588 on: September 28, 2022, 11:27:50 AM »
Why would Russia blow them up when it could have just kept the taps closed, and when a group of US assault ships had been 30km away a few days before?
"Kearsarge and Gunston Hall completed port calls in Gdynia and Gdansk, respectively, last week."
https://news.usni.org/2022/09/26/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-sept-26-2022

Good grief! Russia is doing what it always does, escalating. Yes, Russia can turn the taps off but then it can't blame anyone else if it does. Russia has always used energy as a weapon.
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jeremyp

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #589 on: September 28, 2022, 01:42:09 PM »
Why would Russia blow them up when it could have just kept the taps closed, and when a group of US assault ships had been 30km away a few days before?
"Kearsarge and Gunston Hall completed port calls in Gdynia and Gdansk, respectively, last week."
https://news.usni.org/2022/09/26/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-sept-26-2022

One of the pipelines belonged to Nordstream 2 which has already been cancelled. Nordstream 1 is probably finished too, now that Germany and other central European states have recognised the folly of relying on a corrupt gangster state for their energy needs.

Russia doesn't lose anything by blowing up the pipelines, but it does gain a propaganda victory.
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Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #590 on: September 28, 2022, 01:56:48 PM »
I agree it looks like Russia, but here is Joe Biden promising to end Nord Stream...
https://mobile.twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662

jeremyp

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #591 on: September 28, 2022, 02:52:42 PM »
I agree it looks like Russia, but here is Joe Biden promising to end Nord Stream...
https://mobile.twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662

The Tweet has been deleted. Some of the replies suggest it was fake, anyway.

It's re-appeared. My mistake.
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jeremyp

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #592 on: September 28, 2022, 02:56:30 PM »
I agree it looks like Russia, but here is Joe Biden promising to end Nord Stream...
https://mobile.twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662

He was talking about Nordstream 2. This is a pipeline that had not yet come on line at the start of the invasion. Sabotaging Nordstream 2 would have no effect on Europe in the short term because it didn't have any gas in it.

Germany withdrew from the project when Russia invaded Ukraine and it has subsequently folded.
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ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #593 on: September 29, 2022, 01:28:01 PM »
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63072113

Russia is set to illegally annex the four Ukrainian regions tomorrow. Here's hoping Ukraine arranges some special "fireworks" for the Russian troops there. HIMARS o'clock 3pm?
« Last Edit: September 30, 2022, 04:05:04 AM by ad_orientem »
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ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #594 on: September 30, 2022, 03:51:41 PM »
Ukraine is applying for NATO membership under an accelerated procedure. Given today, who can blame them? It should have happened eight years ago!
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ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #595 on: September 30, 2022, 04:29:59 PM »
Remember! Zelensky was a comedian. The timing couldn't be any better!

Ukraine is applying for NATO membership under an accelerated procedure. Given today, who can blame them? It should have happened eight years ago!
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Udayana

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #596 on: September 30, 2022, 05:01:30 PM »
Remember! Zelensky was a comedian. The timing couldn't be any better!

Something has to be done to counter Putin escalations. I really hope NATO have a solid plan as to reacting when he threatens to use nuclear weapons or deploys them.

Better than "reacting" might be to make clear what they will do in advance - to deter Putin from escalating in the first place.   

Ah, but I was so much older then ... I'm younger than that now

Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #597 on: September 30, 2022, 05:31:35 PM »
Will NATO accept their membership given that they have a pre-existing border dispute?

Something has to be done to counter Putin escalations. I really hope NATO have a solid plan as to reacting when he threatens to use nuclear weapons or deploys them.

Better than "reacting" might be to make clear what they will do in advance - to deter Putin from escalating in the first place.   


As I understand it, Russia will not use nuclear weapons unless they are used against them first.

jeremyp

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #598 on: September 30, 2022, 06:52:54 PM »
Will NATO accept their membership given that they have a pre-existing border dispute?
As I understand it, Russia will not use nuclear weapons unless they are used against them first.

But Putin has been threatening to use them. Is it your contention that Putin's threats are empty? I certainly hope they are.
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Maeght

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #599 on: September 30, 2022, 11:43:08 PM »
Will NATO accept their membership given that they have a pre-existing border dispute?
As I understand it, Russia will not use nuclear weapons unless they are used against them first.

Where does that understanding come from?