Arming the Ukrainians

[ad_orientem]

No. Ukraine is winning this war.

What Obama said in 2014 was probably true in 2014. But Ukraine spent most of the intervening time massively improving its armed forces.

Wasn't even true back then. Yes, Ukraine has improved but Russia always been corrupt to the bone. Much of the money meant to modernise the Russian army was siphoned off. I love it. Remember the Finnish verb: Ryssiä.

[jeremyp]

Wasn't even true back then. Yes, Ukraine has improved but Russia always been corrupt to the bone. Much of the money meant to modernise the Russian army was siphoned off. I love it. Remember the Finnish verb: Ryssiä.

Yes but prior to 2014, Ukraine also had a Soviet style army with similar levels of corruption.

[ad_orientem]

Yes but prior to 2014, Ukraine also had a Soviet style army with similar levels of corruption.

Probably. Nevertheless, we all know now Russian military might is a myth. I doubt most of their nuclear weapons even work. Laughing stock. We need to finish Russia off.

[jeremyp]

Probably. Nevertheless, we all know now Russian military might is a myth. I doubt most of their nuclear weapons even work. Laughing stock. We need to finish Russia off.

Unfortunately "most" doesn't cut it where nuclear weapons are concerned. "All" the the quantifier I'd be looking for.

Interesting point: Russia recently (in the last two weeks) took 300 MiG-29s out of mothball storage. They found that 200 were effectively complete write-offs and 80% were definitely not airworthy. The remaining 60 look OK, but a more in depth examination may reveal problems with them too. If this is something that can be extrapolated to all Russian military hardware that hasn't been used for ages, we may postulate that Putin dare not use his nuclear weapons in case it shows that Russia is no longer a nuclear power.

What would NATO do to Russia if they found out that the nuclear threat is fictional?

Unfortunately, you only need one nuclear war head to work to bring complete disaster down on human civilisation.

[ad_orientem]

Unfortunately "most" doesn't cut it where nuclear weapons are concerned. "All" the the quantifier I'd be looking for.

Interesting point: Russia recently (in the last two weeks) took 300 MiG-29s out of mothball storage. They found that 200 were effectively complete write-offs and 80% were definitely not airworthy. The remaining 60 look OK, but a more in depth examination may reveal problems with them too. If this is something that can be extrapolated to all Russian military hardware that hasn't been used for ages, we may postulate that Putin dare not use his nuclear weapons in case it shows that Russia is no longer a nuclear power.

What would NATO do to Russia if they found out that the nuclear threat is fictional?

Unfortunately, you only need one nuclear war head to work to bring complete disaster down on human civilisation.

I get your point. I still think we should call Putin's bluff though.

[jeremyp]

I get your point. I still think we should call Putin's bluff though.

We are calling his bluff. We are still supplying Ukraine with arms and we are not pressuring them to do a deal.

I think the biggest danger is not nuclear weapons but the Russians blowing the dam on the Dnipro above Kherson. There's a real possibility they will do that.

[ad_orientem]

We are calling his bluff. We are still supplying Ukraine with arms and we are not pressuring them to do a deal.

I think the biggest danger is not nuclear weapons but the Russians blowing the dam on the Dnipro above Kherson. There's a real possibility they will do that.

It's a distinct possibility that they will.

[Nearly Sane]

Joint UK, US, France statement


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/russian-war-in-ukraine-p3-statement

[Spud]

Unfortunately "most" doesn't cut it where nuclear weapons are concerned. "All" the the quantifier I'd be looking for.

Interesting point: Russia recently (in the last two weeks) took 300 MiG-29s out of mothball storage. They found that 200 were effectively complete write-offs and 80% were definitely not airworthy. The remaining 60 look OK, but a more in depth examination may reveal problems with them too. If this is something that can be extrapolated to all Russian military hardware that hasn't been used for ages, we may postulate that Putin dare not use his nuclear weapons in case it shows that Russia is no longer a nuclear power.

What would NATO do to Russia if they found out that the nuclear threat is fictional?

Unfortunately, you only need one nuclear war head to work to bring complete disaster down on human civilisation.

I just had a look at a list of active Russian military aircraft and counted 640 4th-Generation fighters in service (plus 5 Su-57s); not bad.

Joint UK, US, France statement


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/russian-war-in-ukraine-p3-statement

"(but no boots on the ground, ok)"

[ad_orientem]

Russians are almost certainly preparing an escalation. The dirty bomb thing is a joke, surely. No military value and as I understand it nuclear waste has a fingerprint which is easy to trace. If they do, they'll fuck it up some how (ryssiä) but still perpetuate the lie. Don't believe anything until the Kremlin denies it!

[Spud]

Russians are almost certainly preparing an escalation. The dirty bomb thing is a joke, surely. No military value and as I understand it nuclear waste has a fingerprint which is easy to trace. If they do, they'll fuck it up some how (ryssiä) but still perpetuate the lie. Don't believe anything until the Kremlin denies it!

Apparently Russia is accusing Ukraine of the same. I'm wondering if someone heard someone else talking about a dirty bum and that's what started the rumours?

[ad_orientem]

Apparently Russia is accusing Ukraine of the same. I'm wondering if someone heard someone else talking about a dirty bum and that's what started the rumours?

Well, yes! That's my point. It most likely means that's what the Ruskies are about to do. Straight out the handbook. I think they got it from Goebbels or someone. "Accuse the other side of that which you are guilty"

[jeremyp]

Apparently Russia is accusing Ukraine of the same. I'm wondering if someone heard someone else talking about a dirty bum and that's what started the rumours?

Send more toilet paper.

[Nearly Sane]

Send more toilet paper.

Chapeau!

[Spud]

If the dam were breached, this would lead to Russian pontoon bridges downstream being washed away, one reason why they would not bomb it?

[Aruntraveller]

If the dam were breached, this would lead to Russian pontoon bridges downstream being washed away, one reason why they would not bomb it?

I thought one of the plans posited was to bomb it after they had withdrawn from that area.

[Udayana]

I thought one of the plans posited was to bomb it after they had withdrawn from that area.

I read that destroying it would have only minimal effect on Ukrainian advance and also cut off a major water source for Crimea.
 

[ad_orientem]

I read that destroying it would have only minimal effect on Ukrainian advance and also cut off a major water source for Crimea.

Never underestimate the Russians to do something out of spite. That's one of the reasons they turned to stealing washing machines (even though many of them probably didn't have indoor plumbing back home) and stuff like that, because they were so incensed that Ukrainians have a better standard of living than they do.

[Spud]

I read that destroying it would have only minimal effect on Ukrainian advance and also cut off a major water source for Crimea.

The North Crimean canal begins just upstream of the dam. How would destroying it cut off the canal's supply, other than needing a short length of canal to be dug to reconnect it to the river?

[Udayana]

The North Crimean canal begins just upstream of the dam. How would destroying it cut off the canal's supply, other than needing a short length of canal to be dug to reconnect it to the river?

That is what is claimed by both Russian and Ukrainian sources:

https://tass.com/society/1525523

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3600896-danilov-crimea-will-have-no-water-supply-for-1015-years-if-russians-blow-kakhovka-hpp-up.html

So .. I don't think either will intentionally destroy the Kakhovka dam.
 

[jeremyp]

I read that destroying it would have only minimal effect on Ukrainian advance and also cut off a major water source for Crimea.

With the dam destroyed or not, the Dnipro represents a major military obstacle. If the Russians dug in on the South bank, having evacuated the Northern part of Kherson, I'd be extremely surprised if Ukraine could get across.

In fact, I think the only reason the Russians haven't done that already is the optics of abandoning the capital city of a region they have just claimed is part of Russia. i.e. it's politics, not tactics.

[jeremyp]

The North Crimean canal begins just upstream of the dam. How would destroying it cut off the canal's supply, other than needing a short length of canal to be dug to reconnect it to the river?

The water level upstream of the dam would drop significantly leaving the entrance to the canal high and dry.

[Spud]

The water level upstream of the dam would drop significantly leaving the entrance to the canal high and dry.

Of course! Well done. I forgot to think vertically

[ad_orientem]

N̶A̶T̶O̶
̶J̶e̶w̶i̶s̶h̶ ̶n̶a̶z̶i̶ ̶c̶o̶u̶p̶
̶W̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶a̶b̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶A̶z̶o̶v̶
̶P̶r̶o̶t̶e̶c̶t̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶R̶u̶s̶s̶i̶a̶n̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶a̶k̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶p̶o̶p̶
̶B̶i̶o̶l̶a̶b̶s̶
̶J̶e̶w̶i̶s̶h̶ ̶s̶p̶a̶c̶e̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶e̶r̶s̶
̶W̶e̶a̶p̶o̶n̶i̶z̶e̶d̶ ̶b̶i̶r̶d̶s̶
̶D̶i̶r̶t̶y̶ ̶b̶o̶m̶b̶s̶
Let’s try Satanism

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.com/amphtml/russias-security-council-claims-hundreds-144610842.html

[Dicky Underpants]

N̶A̶T̶O̶
̶J̶e̶w̶i̶s̶h̶ ̶n̶a̶z̶i̶ ̶c̶o̶u̶p̶
̶W̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶a̶b̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶A̶z̶o̶v̶
̶P̶r̶o̶t̶e̶c̶t̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶R̶u̶s̶s̶i̶a̶n̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶a̶k̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶p̶o̶p̶
̶B̶i̶o̶l̶a̶b̶s̶
̶J̶e̶w̶i̶s̶h̶ ̶s̶p̶a̶c̶e̶ ̶l̶a̶s̶e̶r̶s̶
̶W̶e̶a̶p̶o̶n̶i̶z̶e̶d̶ ̶b̶i̶r̶d̶s̶
̶D̶i̶r̶t̶y̶ ̶b̶o̶m̶b̶s̶
Let’s try Satanism

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.com/amphtml/russias-security-council-claims-hundreds-144610842.html

Have they suggested that Zelensky is head of a paedophile ring yet?

I noticed Sergei Lavrov in the photo. I believe it is claimed that he knows seven or eight languages. I wonder how he feels deep down when he is required to talk shit in all of them?