Author Topic: Arming the Ukrainians  (Read 118344 times)

ad_orientem

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7928
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #975 on: June 06, 2023, 12:49:25 PM »
RuSSia blows up the Nova Khakovka hydroelectric damn.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADYVikvpmOM

Also reports of ruSSians shelling Kherson whilst Ukraine evacuates civilians.
Peace through superior firepower.
Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.

jeremyp

  • Admin Support
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 32502
  • Blurb
    • Sincere Flattery: A blog about computing
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #976 on: June 07, 2023, 01:01:46 PM »
Blowing up dams is now considered a war crime. I wonder what Spud's view is.
This post and all of JeremyP's posts words certified 100% divinely inspired* -- signed God.
*Platinum infallibility package, terms and conditions may apply

Aruntraveller

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11079
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #977 on: June 08, 2023, 04:56:37 PM »
Blowing up dams is now considered a war crime. I wonder what Spud's view is.

Obvious innit? It'll be the Ukranians wot done it, even though it doesn't help them at all in this war, they just want to frame Putin.

Why I should even have to point out the obvious is beyond me!
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

ad_orientem

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7928
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #978 on: June 09, 2023, 12:16:14 AM »
I fucking hate ruSSia with every fibre of my being. It shouldn't exist. They are shelling people being evacuated.
Peace through superior firepower.
Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.

Spud

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7138
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #979 on: June 10, 2023, 11:12:24 AM »
Obvious innit? It'll be the Ukranians wot done it, even though it doesn't help them at all in this war, they just want to frame Putin.

Why I should even have to point out the obvious is beyond me!
Russia is saying that it does help the Ukrainians, as it enables them to redeploy thousands of troops from the Kherson region to Zaporozhye. I don't think there is any proof yet of who did it, though.

ad_orientem

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7928
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #980 on: June 10, 2023, 02:04:11 PM »
Russia is saying that it does help the Ukrainians, as it enables them to redeploy thousands of troops from the Kherson region to Zaporozhye. I don't think there is any proof yet of who did it, though.

The explosion came from within the dam. It was mined. It's been under ruSSian control for over a year. Did the Ukrainians teleport explosives in there? Fuck both sidesism! If your argument is that it affects the ruSSian's more then, yes, they are that fucking stupid. They don't give a fuck about the people they're supposedly trying to liberate, their own troops or their own citizens.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2023, 02:13:26 PM by ad_orientem »
Peace through superior firepower.
Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.

Aruntraveller

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11079
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #981 on: June 10, 2023, 02:15:29 PM »
Quote
I don't think there is any proof yet of who did it, though.

It depends on what you count as proof.

Dam under Russian control for over a year.

Recording of Russian soldiers admitting it was a Russian sabotage plan that went wrong.

Video evidence that it was a mine rather than a missile or other airborne strike (due to the way the plume of smoke acted).

No strategic gain for Ukraine.

There is more proof right there than there is for the whole of the fallacy that you call the truth in the Bible.
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Nearly Sane

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 64339
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #982 on: June 10, 2023, 02:26:31 PM »

Spud

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7138
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #983 on: June 10, 2023, 03:03:18 PM »
Video evidence that it was a mine rather than a missile or other airborne strike (due to the way the plume of smoke acted).
There is video footage showing explosions at the dam; this footage went viral, but it has emerged that it is actually from 2022.

Aruntraveller

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11079
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #984 on: June 10, 2023, 04:32:38 PM »
There is video footage showing explosions at the dam; this footage went viral, but it has emerged that it is actually from 2022.

I stand corrected, the last time I trust Sky News.

However, seismic data points to an explosion, who gains most?
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Spud

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7138
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #985 on: June 10, 2023, 05:03:18 PM »
I stand corrected, the last time I trust Sky News.

However, seismic data points to an explosion, who gains most?
I don't know. I do know that the Russians are no longer the main suspects for Nord Stream pipelines, which everyone said was them. Also that Ukraine has been shelling the Kakhovka dam previously.

Maeght

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5680
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #986 on: June 10, 2023, 06:02:42 PM »
I don't know. I do know that the Russians are no longer the main suspects for Nord Stream pipelines, which everyone said was them. Also that Ukraine has been shelling the Kakhovka dam previously.

Experts have said shelling wouldn't breach the dam.

ad_orientem

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7928
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #987 on: June 10, 2023, 06:58:07 PM »
I don't know. I do know that the Russians are no longer the main suspects for Nord Stream pipelines, which everyone said was them.

Yes they are.
Peace through superior firepower.
Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.

jeremyp

  • Admin Support
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 32502
  • Blurb
    • Sincere Flattery: A blog about computing
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #988 on: June 11, 2023, 12:32:38 PM »
I don't know. I do know that the Russians are no longer the main suspects for Nord Stream pipelines, which everyone said was them. Also that Ukraine has been shelling the Kakhovka dam previously.
The Nord Stream pipelines were there so Russia could sell gas to people in Europe. Blowing up the pipeline cuts off a revenue stream for Russia.

The dam is there to provide electricity and water to Ukraine. Blowing up the dam stops the electricity nd the water for Ukraine (including a nearby nuclear power station) as well as making it harder for military forces to get across the river down stream.

It's obvious the Russians blew the dam. Your tongue is so far up Putin's arse you can taste his tonsils.
This post and all of JeremyP's posts words certified 100% divinely inspired* -- signed God.
*Platinum infallibility package, terms and conditions may apply

Spud

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7138
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #989 on: June 11, 2023, 07:45:49 PM »
The Washington Post reports that three months before the Nord Stream explosions, US security agencies were informed of a plan by Kiev to harm the pipelines. A yacht linked to Ukraine that is said to have sailed around the two sites of the explosions is being examined. Seymore Hersche has a different story, implicating US divers, but the point is that if either story is true, Russia wasn't involved. This would mean that Russia is not in the business of carrying out large-scale acts of sabotage on non-military infrastructure that harm lots of innocent people.

Then we have the fact that the Ukrainians put three holes in the dam's floodgates using a Himars missile last year to test whether they could damage the dam enough to raise the level of the river and thus cut off Russian troops in Kherson. That would have been a last resort, if other options failed. So we know that Ukraine would have sabotaged the dam, though not necessarily with the intention of destroying it to such an extent, if they thought they had sufficient reason.

The dam was destroyed iirc two days after the beginning of the counter offensive. In those two days, Ukraine lost iirc 1,500 soldiers and 28 tanks. Russia didn't at this point have a need to raise the river level - they were not desperate. Plus, being in control of it, they could have just opened the floodgates if that was needed. So for me the evidence points away from Russia as the perpetrator.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2023, 07:49:57 PM by Spud »

ad_orientem

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7928
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #990 on: June 11, 2023, 08:52:08 PM »
Yeah, no form whatsoever! Neither could HIMARS do that damage to the dam. It was an internal explosion.
Peace through superior firepower.
Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.

ad_orientem

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7928
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #991 on: June 11, 2023, 09:03:25 PM »
Remember MH17? First they boasted about it on social media. Then they realised what they'd done. Then they denied. Exactly the same.
Peace through superior firepower.
Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.

Outrider

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14561
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #992 on: June 11, 2023, 11:11:36 PM »
The Nord Stream pipelines were there so Russia could sell gas to people in Europe. Blowing up the pipeline cuts off a revenue stream for Russia.

The dam is there to provide electricity and water to Ukraine. Blowing up the dam stops the electricity nd the water for Ukraine (including a nearby nuclear power station) as well as making it harder for military forces to get across the river down stream.

It's obvious the Russians blew the dam. Your tongue is so far up Putin's arse you can taste his tonsils.

More pertinently, with the Ukrainian counter-offensive due imminently, blowing the dam and flooding a huge swathe of the area downstream, the Russian's have temporarily restricted a significant section of the potential front from Ukrainian troop and materiel movements, allowing them to bolster their defences over the remainder of the battlefront.

O.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2023, 11:44:05 PM by Nearly Sane »
Universes are forever, not just for creation...

New Atheism - because, apparently, there's a use-by date on unanswered questions.

Eminent Pedant, Interpreter of Heretical Writings, Unwarranted Harvester of Trite Nomenclature, Church of Debatable Saints

jeremyp

  • Admin Support
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 32502
  • Blurb
    • Sincere Flattery: A blog about computing
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #993 on: June 12, 2023, 11:11:56 AM »
More pertinently, with the Ukrainian counter-offensive due imminently, blowing the dam and flooding a huge swathe of the area downstream, the Russian's have temporarily restricted a significant section of the potential front from Ukrainian troop and materiel movements, allowing them to bolster their defences over the remainder of the battlefront.

O.

Exactly. Ukraine has no motive. Russia has every motive.
This post and all of JeremyP's posts words certified 100% divinely inspired* -- signed God.
*Platinum infallibility package, terms and conditions may apply

Spud

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7138
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #994 on: June 13, 2023, 11:44:33 AM »
More pertinently, with the Ukrainian counter-offensive due imminently, blowing the dam and flooding a huge swathe of the area downstream, the Russian's have temporarily restricted a significant section of the potential front from Ukrainian troop and materiel movements, allowing them to bolster their defences over the remainder of the battlefront.

O.
I'm not sure exactly what movements you mean, but I just don't think it would make sense for Russia to flood its own fortifications. It even warned the UN late last year of Ukrainian plans to blow the dam, and evacuated some areas in case it happened.
Conversely to what you said, Ukraine has been able to move troops from Kherson region to Zaporozhye to bolster the counter-offensive, as it's no longer possible for Russia to attack Kherson.
But the main reason they are unlikely to have done it is that the water supply to Crimea. I read that water could be seen leaking through the floodgates days before June 6. It was already damaged. Also Ukraine had released dangerous amounts of water upstream at another dam, putting excessive stress on the kakhovka dam. It could have happened due to a combination of this and previous damage from Ukrainian shelling.

ad_orientem

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7928
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #995 on: June 13, 2023, 12:04:58 PM »
Good grief! You really lap up that ruSSian propaganda. Firstly, the ruSSian's "warned" the UN last year means absolutely bugger all given their history of being compulsive liars. It's textbook false flag stuff on their part. Secondly, Norwegian seismologists have already confirmed that data shows it's highly likely the dam breached due to an explosion consistent with the dam having been packed with explosives, compared to it having been shelled or otherwise.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2023, 12:07:56 PM by ad_orientem »
Peace through superior firepower.
Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.

Outrider

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14561
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #996 on: June 13, 2023, 12:24:40 PM »
I'm not sure exactly what movements you mean, but I just don't think it would make sense for Russia to flood its own fortifications.

They haven't flooded the fortifications, they've flooded the extensive area downstream of the dam where they didn't have fortifications and now, for the short-term at least, do not need to have any.

Quote
It even warned the UN late last year of Ukrainian plans to blow the dam, and evacuated some areas in case it happened.

Funny how in that particular instance they're concerned enough to mention something to the UN? Funny how they were worried about Ukraine somehow getting inside a dam they occupy to plant charges that blow the dam out. And as to the 'evacuation', they moved the native population on to create further disruption and add to the ongoing humanitarian burden on Ukraine's infrastructure because they are a barbaric invading force.
 
Quote
Conversely to what you said, Ukraine has been able to move troops from Kherson region to Zaporozhye to bolster the counter-offensive, as it's no longer possible for Russia to attack Kherson.

Both of which are on the northeast side of the flood-waters - whether the Russians hoped for more extensive flooding in Kherson isn't clear, but it's the occupied areas south and west of the flood-plain that are being protected by it, currently.

Quote
But the main reason they are unlikely to have done it is that the water supply to Crimea.

Russia chose to damage Crimea in the short term - not a great impact, given that it's militarily and economically largely inactive during the current conflict - in the hope that they'll still occupy it in the long-term, against the threat of their forces capitulating entirely and Ukraine reclaiming the illegally occupied territory. The flood-waters can't mutiny, fail to adequately comply with orders or be so fundamentally corrupt that they're ineffective in the same manner as it seems significant portions of the Russian military are.

Quote
I read that water could be seen leaking through the floodgates days before June 6. It was already damaged.

Yes, that's how you sabotage large concrete structures, you make holes in them and then wedge explosives into key stress areas - that way you reduce the quantity of explosives that you need. You can also close the outflow valves and build up an unnecessary head of water behind the dam to add stress and, as a bonus piece of shithousery, increase the indiscriminate damage downstream to civilian centres.

Quote
Also Ukraine had released dangerous amounts of water upstream at another dam, putting excessive stress on the kakhovka dam.

Do you have a reliable source for that? I've seen it mentioned once, and the source for that was the entirely reliable Russian state media agency.

Quote
It could have happened due to a combination of this and previous damage from Ukrainian shelling.

Given the pattern of damage in the structure, that's unlikely. Given who gains from the flooding, the damage pattern to the dam itself reported by people (Ukrainian and independent) who've seen it, the prior activity such as weakening the dam's integrity, the occupation by Russian forces and the increase in the reservoir's water level, it seems likely that it was a deliberate Russian act.

Are you going to suggest, as well, that it was the Ukrainian's who were shelling the refugees trying to evacuate through the floods when their boats were fired upon?

O.
[/quote]
Universes are forever, not just for creation...

New Atheism - because, apparently, there's a use-by date on unanswered questions.

Eminent Pedant, Interpreter of Heretical Writings, Unwarranted Harvester of Trite Nomenclature, Church of Debatable Saints

Spud

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7138
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #997 on: June 14, 2023, 09:50:00 AM »
They haven't flooded the fortifications, they've flooded the extensive area downstream of the dam where they didn't have fortifications and now, for the short-term at least, do not need to have any.
They had defenses and troops stationed downstream, whom they didn't warn or evacuate beforehand.

Quote
Funny how in that particular instance they're concerned enough to mention something to the UN? Funny how they were worried about Ukraine somehow getting inside a dam they occupy to plant charges that blow the dam out. And as to the 'evacuation', they moved the native population on to create further disruption and add to the ongoing humanitarian burden on Ukraine's infrastructure because they are a barbaric invading force.

Both of which are on the northeast side of the flood-waters - whether the Russians hoped for more extensive flooding in Kherson isn't clear, but it's the occupied areas south and west of the flood-plain that are being protected by it, currently.

Russia chose to damage Crimea in the short term - not a great impact, given that it's militarily and economically largely inactive during the current conflict - in the hope that they'll still occupy it in the long-term, against the threat of their forces capitulating entirely and Ukraine reclaiming the illegally occupied territory. The flood-waters can't mutiny, fail to adequately comply with orders or be so fundamentally corrupt that they're ineffective in the same manner as it seems significant portions of the Russian military are.

Yes, that's how you sabotage large concrete structures, you make holes in them and then wedge explosives into key stress areas - that way you reduce the quantity of explosives that you need. You can also close the outflow valves and build up an unnecessary head of water behind the dam to add stress and, as a bonus piece of shithousery, increase the indiscriminate damage downstream to civilian centres.

Do you have a reliable source for that? I've seen it mentioned once, and the source for that was the entirely reliable Russian state media agency.
Here is an unbiased (from what I can make out) article that explains what I've been saying a lot better:

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/portmortem-analysis-on-kakhovka-dam

It gives a chart showing that the water in the reservoir had reached a critical level at the beginning of May, then plateaued. He cites a tweeter who said on May 4 that the Russians could not get the gates of the dam to open, then on 6 May that they had managed to.

The general picture is either of damage from repeated Ukrainian shelling causing difficulty letting water out and consequentially a build up of water in the reservoir, followed by a breach (visible on June 1-2).

Or, of excessive water being let in through dams further upstream, causing critical water levels. The chart in the link shows that the level is higher than the previous 6 years, so this must have been caused by more than just rainfall.

Quote
Given the pattern of damage in the structure, that's unlikely.
It was already damaged, as shown by satellite image of leaking before 6 June. What caused this, do you think?

Quote
Given who gains from the flooding,
Nobody, imo

Quote
the damage pattern to the dam itself reported by people (Ukrainian and independent) who've seen it, the prior activity such as weakening the dam's integrity,
Ukrainian shelling trying to disrupt Russian activity on the bridge.

Quote
the occupation by Russian forces and the increase in the reservoir's water level, it seems likely that it was a deliberate Russian act.
The Russian forces might have deliberately kept the gates closed to increase the reservoir's water level and maximize the flooding, but just because they could have done it doesn't make it likely that they did.

Quote
Are you going to suggest, as well, that it was the Ukrainian's who were shelling the refugees trying to evacuate through the floods when their boats were fired upon?

O.
I don't know. The firing came from "across the river" according to one report from a civilian on the Russian side.

Spud

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7138
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #998 on: June 14, 2023, 10:07:55 AM »
Good grief! You really lap up that ruSSian propaganda. Firstly, the ruSSian's "warned" the UN last year means absolutely bugger all given their history of being compulsive liars. It's textbook false flag stuff on their part. Secondly, Norwegian seismologists have already confirmed that data shows it's highly likely the dam breached due to an explosion consistent with the dam having been packed with explosives, compared to it having been shelled or otherwise.

Here is the chart of the seismic activity: https://www.jordskjelv.no/getfile.php/1318632-1686207416/jordskjelv.no/meldinger/dam.png%20%28content_full_width%29.png

It looks as though the bang lasted about 20 seconds. Could it have been caused by the collapse itself? It is not that great compared with the background activity before and after.

Outrider

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14561
Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #999 on: June 14, 2023, 10:57:53 AM »
They had defenses and troops stationed downstream, whom they didn't warn or evacuate beforehand.

They had conscript and released convicts downstream who are, for the Russian military, not merely acceptable losses but a logistics drain now removed and a media bonus back home.

Quote
It gives a chart showing that the water in the reservoir had reached a critical level at the beginning of May, then plateaued. He cites a tweeter who said on May 4 that the Russians could not get the gates of the dam to open, then on 6 May that they had managed to.

How convenient that the Russians occupy the dam and SUDDENLY it starts malfunctioning.

Quote
The general picture is either of damage from repeated Ukrainian shelling causing difficulty letting water out and consequentially a build up of water in the reservoir, followed by a breach (visible on June 1-2).

Multiple close-up drone camera sweeps of the dam show no significant signs of impact damage from outside - there is no evidence the dam was shelled by anyone.

Quote
Or, of excessive water being let in through dams further upstream, causing critical water levels. The chart in the link shows that the level is higher than the previous 6 years, so this must have been caused by more than just rainfall.

Water throughput from all the dams on river varies at all sorts of times, this is usual. There is no evidence of any significant increase in the flow of water from dams upstream beyond the normal fluctuations - yes the water flow increased, the water flow increases and decreases regularly. The Russians took control of this dam, and it stopped responding to those entirely usual fluctuations, building up the water level.

Quote
It was already damaged, as shown by satellite image of leaking before 6 June. What caused this, do you think?

Russian invaders with a plan to blow the dam would be my best guess.

Quote
Ukrainian shelling trying to disrupt Russian activity on the bridge.

For which there is no evidence.

Quote
The Russian forces might have deliberately kept the gates closed to increase the reservoir's water level and maximize the flooding, but just because they could have done it doesn't make it likely that they did.

It's not like anyone else could have done it. It could, potentially, have just been that the Russian troops occupying the dam were as incompetent at operating the dam as they have been at everything else in this illegal invasion and occupation, but it seems a little too convenient.

Quote
I don't know. The firing came from "across the river" according to one report from a civilian on the Russian side.

Well that's proven it, one random civilian can accurately pin-point the particular launch point of the one shell amongst hundreds fired off in the area which not only hit the dam but managed to leave no impact trace but still penetrate far enough into the concrete to blow it out in multiple places to look like it had been mined from the inside.

O.
Universes are forever, not just for creation...

New Atheism - because, apparently, there's a use-by date on unanswered questions.

Eminent Pedant, Interpreter of Heretical Writings, Unwarranted Harvester of Trite Nomenclature, Church of Debatable Saints