Author Topic: Arming the Ukrainians  (Read 118185 times)

Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1125 on: July 31, 2023, 01:03:55 PM »
What coup in Ukraine are you referring to? Are you referring to the Maidan Uprising/Revolution of Dignity when the duly-elected regime reneged on its campaign promises as a result of Russian pressure and bribery, and prompted a popular revolt to throw them out and RUN FURTHER DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS as the Russians invaded the country? That's not a coup, even in Russian.

O.
Bribery? I thought Yanukovych was unhappy with the EU deal because of the financial problems it left unresolved, and that Russia made a better offer?


Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1126 on: July 31, 2023, 01:06:48 PM »
What is a threat to Russian interests, currently, is the lack of a defensible land border.
Not sure what you mean?

Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1127 on: July 31, 2023, 01:08:20 PM »
Did it initiate the conflict?
The Revolution seems to have done, yes

Maeght

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1128 on: July 31, 2023, 01:38:08 PM »
The Revolution seems to have done, yes

Didn't Putin initiate the conflict?

Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1129 on: July 31, 2023, 01:38:22 PM »
It should have been obvious: NATO is pulling Ukraine in because Russia invaded. Is he some kind of idiot?

In 2014, NATO was not "pulling Ukraine in". Nor was it in 2022 until Russia invaded.

Putin is lying. He is a liar.
Agreed - Yanukovych shelved plans for NATO membership (from 2008) in 2010 when he was elected. The revolution initiated a border conflict, so Ukraine is not eligible anyway. The whole idea of it joining is a non-starter.

The falsehood seems to me to be this:

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Steven Myers, an Air Force veteran who served on the State Department's Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy under two secretaries of State, told USA TODAY that one of the West’s narratives is that Putin planned to conquer Ukraine and continue west if not stopped. But Myers argues that Russia's military tactics have been "completely inconsistent with conquest." The agenda was, is and will always be to keep Ukraine out of NATO at all costs, he said.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2023, 01:40:37 PM by Spud »

ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1130 on: July 31, 2023, 02:09:38 PM »
LOL! Then why sacrifice a column trying to take Kyiv? Don't tell me, it was a feint!🤣
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Outrider

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1131 on: July 31, 2023, 02:50:15 PM »
Bribery? I thought Yanukovych was unhappy with the EU deal because of the financial problems it left unresolved, and that Russia made a better offer?

Did you? You thought that a nation could make financial arrangements with the endemically corrupt Russians as a counter to uncertainty about the extent of financial guarantees with arrangements with the EU? You bought that as an excuse, and you still want to post here with any sort of credibility?

Regardless, what Yanukovych was or was not unhappy with wasn't the point, he was constitutionally obliged to follow through on the express will of the people, and for whatever bribery reasons he took it upon himself to overturn that and try to implement his personal will over the country.

O.
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Outrider

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1132 on: July 31, 2023, 03:00:15 PM »
Agreed - Yanukovych shelved plans for NATO membership (from 2008) in 2010 when he was elected.

Well, no, what he shelved was a commitment to closer ties with the EU - it wasn't military concerns that exacerbated Putin's first illegal invasion, it was the financial cost of losing preferred access to warm-water ports, Ukrainian crops and markets.

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The revolution initiated a border conflict, so Ukraine is not eligible anyway.

The revolution initiated INTERNAL conflict. Putin and Russian initiated a border conflict when they invaded.

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The whole idea of it joining is a non-starter.

In theory NATO could change its Articles, but I'd agree that seems unlikely, so this conflict will probably need to be resolved before Ukraine joining NATO can be arranged; however, it's not a non-starter, it's just going to be something that happens later rather than now.

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The falsehood seems to me to be this:

Ukraine militarily evicting the entirety of the Russian forces in any sort of short order was never going to happen, and anyone suggesting that it was is either lying or fooling themselves. What Ukraine has, though, is far more developed and deeper logistics provision - it can keep going, and it remains to be seen if Russia can and will. Unrest within Russia appears to be, although still at a low level, growing, and that's only likely to get worse as Ukraine starts to target facilities deeper within the country. Eventually, it will be internal political forces or economic problems that render Russia incapable of maintaining their occupation: Kyiv appears to be focussed on speeding that up and making that more severe in the hope that it will put them in a better position to negotiate for the return of all their illegally occupied territory as well as reparations.

O.
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jeremyp

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1133 on: July 31, 2023, 05:06:10 PM »
Agreed - Yanukovych shelved plans for NATO membership (from 2008) in 2010 when he was elected. The revolution initiated a border conflict, so Ukraine is not eligible anyway. The whole idea of it joining is a non-starter.
No. Russia initiated the "border conflict". Although you are correct to say that NATO membership is currently a non starter due to Ukraine being at war with Russia.
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The falsehood seems to me to be this:

Stephen Myers is an idiot. He's completely forgotten how the war started. Putin started with an attack directed at Kyiv. It's pretty obvious he intended to capture Kyiv, depose the government and replace it with a puppet ruler. He's only involved in a war of attrition now because his initial plan failed utterly.

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SteveH

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1134 on: July 31, 2023, 05:32:36 PM »
A good article on ruSSian imperialism.
I do wish you'd drop this childish habit of writing "Russia[n]" with capital s's; it's getting very tiresome. If you want to capitalise anything, do it to the R: country names take an initial capital.
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ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1135 on: July 31, 2023, 05:40:37 PM »
I do wish you'd drop this childish habit of writing "Russia[n]" with capital s's; it's getting very tiresome. If you want to capitalise anything, do it to the R: country names take an initial capital.

If it vexes you, you're cleaely concentrating on the wrong thing. Concentrate on the message. It's just my little way of showing I believe ruSSia is a Nazi state. Or am I wrong? Anyway, let's not argue about this, please. We're clearly on the same page regarding this war except, perhaps, my hatred goes much deeper.
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Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1136 on: July 31, 2023, 06:23:46 PM »
LOL! Then why sacrifice a column trying to take Kyiv? Don't tell me, it was a feint!🤣
They didn't expect such a strong resistance. Assuming their goal was regime change to keep Ukraine out of NATO, that's not the same as conquest.

Maeght

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1137 on: July 31, 2023, 06:57:49 PM »
They didn't expect such a strong resistance. Assuming their goal was regime change to keep Ukraine out of NATO, that's not the same as conquest.

Putting a puppet government in charge who do what Russia says, by military force, is conquest.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/conquering

1: to gain or acquire by force of arms : SUBJUGATE
conquer territory
2: to overcome by force of arms : VANQUISH
conquered the enemy
3: to gain mastery over or win by overcoming obstacles or opposition
conquered the mountain
4: to overcome by mental or moral power : SURMOUNT
conquered her fear

Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1138 on: July 31, 2023, 08:02:05 PM »
Putting a puppet government in charge who do what Russia says, by military force, is conquest.
Even if it is preemptive? Anyway, the point is that the, imo false, western narrative is "Putin planned to conquer Ukraine and continue west if not stopped".
« Last Edit: July 31, 2023, 08:07:04 PM by Spud »

Aruntraveller

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1139 on: July 31, 2023, 08:16:42 PM »
Even if it is preemptive? Anyway, the point is that the, imo false, western narrative is "Putin planned to conquer Ukraine and continue west if not stopped".

imo?

Iyio more like.

(In your imagination only)

Russia invaded Ukraine. Another country. It really is that simple. You can retro fit how you want but you cannot change the central fact. They invaded. (And remember you never thought they would at the beginning of all this) They killed people. And you try to justify it. You a supposed Christian.

I can't help but:
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Outrider

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1140 on: July 31, 2023, 11:17:57 PM »
Even if it is preemptive?

Pre-empting what... Russian aggression? That was coming already, Russia had already invaded one neighbour to implement a puppet regime, and sponsored a puppet regime in another. Ukraine had ample evidence of Russian propoganda attempting to influence regional unrest, and then their elected officials started suspiciously reversing the course they were voted in for and started adopting pro-Russian positions.

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Anyway, the point is that the, imo false, western narrative is "Putin planned to conquer Ukraine and continue west if not stopped".

Based on his historic pattern of invading places and taking them over, making settlements and then reneging on those and invading again. Putin might not be attempting that, but you can't trust that he isn't lying now when he says that's not the plan, and that he won't change his mind in eighteen months time when he has a fresh load of convicts he needs to clear out of the over-populated prisons by conscripting them into his meat-grinder.

O.
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Maeght

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1141 on: August 01, 2023, 07:36:55 AM »
Even if it is preemptive? Anyway, the point is that the, imo false, western narrative is "Putin planned to conquer Ukraine and continue west if not stopped".

Preemptive of what exactly?

I wouldn't necessarily agree with the idea that Putin intends marching further West (but he may if allowed to) but rather that he wants to expand Russian control westward and to create a buffer zone between The West and Mother Russia. This involves conquering Sovereign nations and is illegal.

Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1142 on: August 01, 2023, 09:47:23 AM »
Pre-empting what... Russian aggression?
No, putting a non-hostile (to Russia and to ethnic Russians in Ukraine) government in place both to preempt the country from joining NATO as well as to prevent the Donbas region being compelled to Ukrainize.

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Based on his historic pattern of invading places and taking them over, making settlements and then reneging on those and invading again. Putin might not be attempting that, but you can't trust that he isn't lying now when he says that's not the plan, and that he won't change his mind
It struck me that the same can be said of NATO if you look at its history of attempting to force liberal democracy on countries such as Afghanistan. Why should Russia believe that with Ukraine in NATO, the US will not attempt to block Russia's black sea interests? It seems that both superpowers want hegemony over the territory in between. In Russia's case, you can understand it's desire for freedom to access the black sea. Maybe in future it will agree that it's wrong for it to force its way to it, I don't think the way to achieve that is blockading it though.

jeremyp

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1143 on: August 01, 2023, 09:47:44 AM »
Even if it is preemptive? Anyway, the point is that the, imo false, western narrative is "Putin planned to conquer Ukraine and continue west if not stopped".
I don't recall anybody in the West saying that. Certainly there were fears about his attempt to rebuild the Russian empire, which would have continued.

Moldova is to the West of Ukraine, so I think that would have been eaten up. Romania is next but it is in NATO.  I think he would have stopped heading West at that point and started looking at other former parts of the USSR not in NATO and maybe also Finland (which explains Ad Orientum's position on this).
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jeremyp

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1144 on: August 01, 2023, 09:57:23 AM »
No, putting a non-hostile (to Russia and to ethnic Russians in Ukraine) government in place both to preempt the country from joining NATO as well as to prevent the Donbas region being compelled to Ukrainize.

In the referendum, Donbas voted for independence from Russia just like all the other regions. Donbas is part of Ukraine. It does not need to "Ukrainise".
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It struck me that the same can be said of NATO if you look at its history of attempting to force liberal democracy on countries such as Afghanistan.
Well you can't deny that Afghanistan was a better place to live for many people, especially women, before the USA pulled out.

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Why should Russia believe that with Ukraine in NATO, the US will not attempt to block Russia's black sea interests?
Can I remind you that Ukraine was not going to join NATO. It's only Russia's actions since February last year that have put it on the table. It's called shooting yourself in the foot.

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It seems that both superpowers want hegemony over the territory in between. In Russia's case, you can understand its desire for freedom to access the black sea. Maybe in future it will agree that it's wrong for it to force its way to it, I don't think the way to achieve that is blockading it though.
Have you looked at a map of the Eastern Mediterranean? Access to the Black Sea is already completely controlled by an existing NATO member.
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Outrider

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1145 on: August 01, 2023, 11:39:03 PM »
No, putting a non-hostile (to Russia and to ethnic Russians in Ukraine) government in place both to preempt the country from joining NATO as well as to prevent the Donbas region being compelled to Ukrainize.

A pro-EU government is not inherently 'hostile to Russia', unless you're the sort of paranoid ex-KGB tool who still thinks that Russia is a world force standing against the delinquencies of the West. Ukraine was pro-EU because it was entirely ambivalent about Russia which had little to nothing to offer it - it was approaching the EU because it's successful and developed and progressing, whilst Russia lags further and further behind on virtually every metric.

Ukraine owed no duty to Russia to be 'non-hostile' to an expansionist neighbour with an established history of invading countries, and it also has the freedom to seek to join NATO if it wishes.

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It struck me that the same can be said of NATO if you look at its history of attempting to force liberal democracy on countries such as Afghanistan. Why should Russia believe that with Ukraine in NATO, the US will not attempt to block Russia's black sea interests?

Why would the US want to block Russia's black sea interests? With the possible exception of seeing it as a competitor for oil exports, the majority of recent US administrations could really give two figs what Russia is up to, it's an irrelevance on the global scale. It exports cheap, two-generation old weapons systems to African dictators in a desperate grab for any half-way decent currency it can find because the Rouble is roughly equivalent to toilet-paper, and single-ply toilet paper at that. The exception, of course was Trump's administration which was actively in favour of building up Russia as a competeitive near-neighbour to China without the wit or sense to adequately manage either of those relationships, let alone any conflict between them.

Whether it's an incapacity of Russian leadership to accept that or to see it in the first place doesn't really matter.

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It seems that both superpowers want hegemony over the territory in between.

It seems you and Russia still think that Russia is a superpower; that's indicative of your failure to realise what's actually happening.

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In Russia's case, you can understand it's desire for freedom to access the black sea.

Russia already has Black Sea Ports, already has the Black Sea Fleet (for the good it's doing). Russia didn't need Black Sea access, it needed to try to eliminate competition in the Black Sea region because it can't compete on an even playing field against a Scout Troop, let alone another country.

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Maybe in future it will agree that it's wrong for it to force its way to it, I don't think the way to achieve that is blockading it though.

Ukraine, and more broadly the West, attempted to make diplomatic agreements with Putin and Russia following both his invasions of Chechnya, his overt interference with Byelorussia's politics, his first invasion of Ukraine, his barely less overt interference in European Elections and his blatant interference in the American elections. He has consistently either lied, or subsequently changed his mind and reneged on deals. Economic and political sanctions against him, his allies and his country are the next step, let's hope it doesn't get to the point where further countries need to get dragged into open conflict, for the sake of the Russian people who will suffer the worst of it.

O.
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Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1146 on: August 02, 2023, 09:12:57 AM »
Preemptive of what exactly?

I wouldn't necessarily agree with the idea that Putin intends marching further West (but he may if allowed to) but rather that he wants to expand Russian control westward and to create a buffer zone between The West and Mother Russia. This involves conquering Sovereign nations and is illegal.
I didn't see this yesterday, sorry. Yes, but I think the context of Steven Myers' use of the word 'conquest' clarifies that it doesn't mean invading other countries than Ukraine. Russia's strategy is inconsistent with this, but I've seen British news articles in which Zelensky claims Russia could start bombing London if they aren't stopped in Ukraine. So it's ok for him to exaggerate but Russia isn't allowed to want security guarantees?

What the invasion was preemptive of seems to have been the US eventually having the capability of launching nukes at Moscow that would reach it within a minute. If the US navy had access to Crimea this is closer than Cuba is to Washington. It seems Russia needs control over the black sea in order to prevent this - not so much as for access to the Mediterranean.

As well as this, the news website Tass reports daily on the shelling of residential areas well being the line of engagement in DPR. It says that since Feb last year, 4600 civilians have been killed and 4900 wounded by AFU shelling.

https://tass.com/society/1654987
« Last Edit: August 02, 2023, 09:17:23 AM by Spud »

Outrider

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1147 on: August 02, 2023, 09:37:10 AM »
Yes, but I think the context of Steven Myers' use of the word 'conquest' clarifies that it doesn't mean invading other countries than Ukraine.

And Chechnya. And he has troops massing close to the borders of Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. All three are NATO members, which you'd hope would be a deterrent to Putin, but his internal politics is being tested and his decision making doesn't always appear to conform to the sort of rationale that we in the West would expect.

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Russia's strategy is inconsistent with this,

Russia's strategy is inconsistent in general.

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...but I've seen British news articles in which Zelensky claims Russia could start bombing London if they aren't stopped in Ukraine. So it's ok for him to exaggerate but Russia isn't allowed to want security guarantees?

Russia has an established history of state-sponsored terrorism in the UK - the Skripal poisoning, the Litvinenko poisoning, interference in various electoral activities. The idea that they'd sponsor a terrorist attack in London is far from radical. Whilst NATO's involvement in Afghanistan does undermine their stated purpose of being a defensive alliance, it would take either delusion or deliberate mendacity to claim that gave Russia justification to think that NATO was a threat of military aggression.

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What the invasion was preemptive of seems to have been the US eventually having the capability of launching nukes at Moscow that would reach it within a minute.

The US has that now, it can put submarines in the Arctic Sea, North Pacific or Mediterranean with no reailstic prospect of Russia being able to do anything about it. Russia's invasion was a combination of an attempt to shore up internal political rumblings, an opportunity to improve economic security through the Black Sea, and an attempt to gain control of valuable resources. The timing was influenced by Ukraine's increased leanings towards NATO, because Putin seems to be aware that invading a NATO territory would result in the end of his political career.

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If the US navy had access to Crimea this is closer than Cuba is to Washington. It seems Russia needs control over the black sea in order to prevent this - not so much as for access to the Mediterranean.

Russia already had the capacity to keep the US out of the Black Sea, via Turkey's gatekeeping role in the Bosphorous which they take very seriously. Occupying further ports in the Black Sea doesn't prevent any NATO forces accessing the region any more than before - they have more of their own shipping in the Sea but that naval forces is largely obsolete and as stripped of effective personnel and equipment by corruption and ineptitude as the rest of Russia's military.

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As well as this, the news website Tass reports daily on the shelling of residential areas well being the line of engagement in DPR. It says that since Feb last year, 4600 civilians have been killed and 4900 wounded by AFU shelling.

You mean civilian sites which are being occupied by a hostile invading force using the locals as a human shield in contravention of the conventions of warfare? If Russia's that worried about civilians being killed, perhaps they should fuck off back to Russia?

O.
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jeremyp

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1148 on: August 02, 2023, 10:25:45 AM »
I didn't see this yesterday, sorry. Yes, but I think the context of Steven Myers' use of the word 'conquest' clarifies that it doesn't mean invading other countries than Ukraine.
As we discussed before, Steven Myers is clearly an idiot who doesn't remember back to March last year.

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Russia's strategy is inconsistent with this
Russia's strategy makes no sense to anybody who doesn't understand that it is driven entirely by internal politics. This is all about Putin keeping power in Moscow. Initially, it was a "look a squirrel" tactic and now it's just about him not taking a walk out of a nearby sixth storey window.

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but I've seen British news articles in which Zelensky claims Russia could start bombing London if they aren't stopped in Ukraine. So it's ok for him to exaggerate but Russia isn't allowed to want security guarantees?
Come on, you live in a NATO country. was there ever any realistic chance that NATO would invade Russia? NATO was set up as a defensive pact. There is no danger of NATO launching an invasion of Russia. So why is Putin nervous about NATO forces close to his border? Because it stops him from launching invasions of his neighbours and he wants to launch invasions of his neighbours because he wants to be the new Peter the Great and it distracts Russians from their problems at home.

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As well as this, the news website Tass reports daily on the shelling of residential areas well being the line of engagement in DPR. It says that since Feb last year, 4600 civilians have been killed and 4900 wounded by AFU shelling.

https://tass.com/society/1654987

The shelling will stop when there are no longer Russian soldiers in Donbas to be shelled. Also, take the numbers with a pinch of salt. TASS is a Russian news agency. It's lying.
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Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #1149 on: August 02, 2023, 10:28:20 AM »
"The idea that they'd sponsor a terrorist attack in London is far from radical."
Zelensky was implying bombing like that of WWII, Outrider.