Arming the Ukrainians

[ad_orientem]

There's a significant amount of butthurt about this from the ruskies, but that's only because they fucked themselves. Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine. If only ruSSia had existed peacefully within its own borders many countries might not have joined Nato. But they couldn't help themselves, could they, starting with Transnistria and Abkhazia; then committing a bit more genocide on Chechens; then South Ossetia, Crimea and Donbas. A nice little list of reasons ruSSia's neighbours want to join Nato.

[jeremyp]

It's indiscriminate shelling of non-military, civilian areas

You think the Russians army has set aside civilian areas that they don't go into?

Patrick Lancaster

Russian propagandist. Don't believe anything he says.

If Ukraine was attacking military targets it would without doubt be posting footage of the attacks online

They don't necessarily have footage of everything they hit.

as it does when it hits a Russian tank or ammo depot.

So it is attacking military targets.

[ad_orientem]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rusich_Group

From Rusich's Telegram channel.

[Maeght]

This is cleverly done - comparing Hitler and Putin's justification for war.

https://twitter.com/BossCat1980/status/1697270144035401946

[Spud]

Kostiantynivka, where a missile landed in a shopping area yesterday. This was likely a false flag, watch first six minutes of this:

https://youtu.be/M4tFAsEqMbk?si=SFSxKYanqxN8mM8O

[jeremyp]

Kostiantynivka, where a missile landed in a shopping area yesterday. This was likely a false flag, watch first six minutes of this:

https://youtu.be/M4tFAsEqMbk?si=SFSxKYanqxN8mM8O

Yes, because the lying Russian liars can absolutely be trusted.

Wait, no they can't. That was a Russian missile designed to terrorise Ukrainians.

[Spud]

Yes, because the lying Russian liars can absolutely be trusted.

Wait, no they can't. That was a Russian missile designed to terrorise Ukrainians.

To summarise, in case you haven't watched it:
Two pedestrians turn to look behind them the moment the sound of the projectile occurs. They look towards ukrainian-held Druzhkivka.
A reflection of the projectile is seen on a car roof, confirming the latter trajectory of the projectile.
Russians claimed to detect the launch of a missile at the same time.

[ad_orientem]

Musk is a cunt, pass it on! He has blood on his hands.

https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-musk-turned-off-starlink-near-crimea-to-prevent-ukraines-strike-against-russian-fleet/

[Outrider]

First impressions, presuming that the link is actually from where it's claimed on the basis that I've not seen anything suggesting it isn't.

Two pedestrians turn to look behind them the moment the sound of the projectile occurs.

There's a strange noise in an established conflict zone - of course they turn to look.

They look towards ukrainian-held Druzhkivka.

They look towards the noise; given the timing, the object is relatively close already at the time they turn, and they turn towards where the explosion is. That's dependent upon where the destination is in relation to them, not the launch point. If it was a guided munition then the direction it arrived from isn't that relevant. If it's an unguided munition then it's on a high trajectory and the approach direction is pretty much vertical at that point, where they perceive the sound to come from (not considering the echo effect of built up areas) isn't a good indicator of the direction of fire.

A reflection of the projectile is seen on a car roof, confirming the latter trajectory of the projectile.

As above, a facet more of the direction of facing of the camera in relation to the impact point than any reliable indicator of the incoming trajectory.

Russians claimed to detect the launch of a missile at the same time.

The same Russians that claim this isn't an illegal invasion, and that Ukraine is riddled with Nazis. Do they have a bridge for sale?

O.

[jeremyp]

To summarise, in case you haven't watched it:
Two pedestrians turn to look behind them the moment the sound of the projectile occurs. They look towards ukrainian-held Druzhkivka.
A reflection of the projectile is seen on a car roof, confirming the latter trajectory of the projectile.
Russians claimed to detect the launch of a missile at the same time.

The Russians are liars. When you get confirmation from a reliable source, let me know.

[jeremyp]

Musk is a cunt, pass it on! He has blood on his hands.

https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-musk-turned-off-starlink-near-crimea-to-prevent-ukraines-strike-against-russian-fleet/

Putin's got something on him.

[Spud]

First impressions, presuming that the link is actually from where it's claimed on the basis that I've not seen anything suggesting it isn't.

There's a strange noise in an established conflict zone - of course they turn to look.

They look towards the noise; given the timing, the object is relatively close already at the time they turn, and they turn towards where the explosion is. That's dependent upon where the destination is in relation to them, not the launch point. If it was a guided munition then the direction it arrived from isn't that relevant. If it's an unguided munition then it's on a high trajectory and the approach direction is pretty much vertical at that point, where they perceive the sound to come from (not considering the echo effect of built up areas) isn't a good indicator of the direction of fire.

As above, a facet more of the direction of facing of the camera in relation to the impact point than any reliable indicator of the incoming trajectory.

The same Russians that claim this isn't an illegal invasion, and that Ukraine is riddled with Nazis. Do they have a bridge for sale?

O.

There's a sort of double bang, which sounds like a rocket or shell being launched, then a second later a screeching noise and the explosion. If you look at the man, he turns to look behind him straight after the bang, and the woman copies him.

This suggests that the launch is behind them, unless the acoustics of the street changed the direction it would be perceived to be coming from. Here's a link to the recording, with sound (and interestingly, the reflection on the car roof can't be seen):

https://youtu.be/gAP_7MA6DiI?si=RDdY2i1XSIhlTJa7

[Outrider]

There's a sort of double bang, which sounds like a rocket or shell being launched, then a second later a screeching noise and the explosion. If you look at the man, he turns to look behind him straight after the bang, and the woman copies him.

The distance from the purported launch point in Druzhkivka is about 20km. For the first noise to be the launch and the second to be the impact, you'd have to have a) the loudest munitions launcher in history by orders of magnitude and, b) a munition that covers 20km in less than 2 seconds which is somewhere above 20,000 mph - about Mach 20. That's preposterous. Far more likely are either multiple munitions (one out of shot that they respond to, and then one closer), or an impact followed by a delayed detonation (doesn't look like that on the film, but it's not great quality and the detonation is at the edge of the frame).

This suggests that the launch is behind them, unless the acoustics of the street changed the direction it would be perceived to be coming from.

If that was launch then impact the launch point would have be within earshot - within a built-up area, with traffic noise and people, that's perhaps a mile or two at most.

O.

[ad_orientem]

Putin's got something on him.

Defo! He has American security clearance and talks freely with ruSSian officials? RuSSian tool!

[Spud]

The distance from the purported launch point in Druzhkivka is about 20km. For the first noise to be the launch and the second to be the impact, you'd have to have a) the loudest munitions launcher in history by orders of magnitude and, b) a munition that covers 20km in less than 2 seconds which is somewhere above 20,000 mph - about Mach 20. That's preposterous. Far more likely are either multiple munitions (one out of shot that they respond to, and then one closer), or an impact followed by a delayed detonation (doesn't look like that on the film, but it's not great quality and the detonation is at the edge of the frame).

If that was launch then impact the launch point would have be within earshot - within a built-up area, with traffic noise and people, that's perhaps a mile or two at most.

O.

This rules out the Russian side launching it, as the front line is also over 20km away.

[ad_orientem]

This rules out the Russian side launching it, as the front line is also over 20km away.

Are you saying ruSSian missles or artillery can't reach twenty miles? Pretty crap then.

[jeremyp]

interestingly, the reflection on the car roof can't be seen

The reflection on the car roof occurred two frames after the explosion. It's not the missile.

The people who looked the wrong way may have heard an echo of the sound.

https://ryanmcbeth.substack.com/p/analyzing-deceptive-imagery-from

[Spud]

Are you saying ruSSian missles or artillery can't reach twenty miles? Pretty crap then.

Outrider did the maths. If it was fired from 20km away, it would have to be travelling at Mach 20 to reach the target 2 seconds after the launch is heard at the target. It must have been launched from a few km away.

[jeremyp]

For the first noise to be the launch and the second to be the impact, you'd have to have a) the loudest munitions launcher in history by orders of magnitude and, b) a munition that covers 20km in less than 2 seconds which is somewhere above 20,000 mph - about Mach 20.

You have made a fundamental mistake. Think about the fact that any missile travelling at more than Mach 1 will arrive at its target before the sound of its launch.

If the launch had been 20km away and the impact came two seconds after the sound of the launch, the missile must have been travelling at slightly less than 340m/s depending on atmospheric conditions.

[Spud]

You have made a fundamental mistake. Think about the fact that any missile travelling at more than Mach 1 will arrive at its target before the sound of its launch.

If the launch had been 20km away and the impact came two seconds after the sound of the launch, the missile must have been travelling at slightly less than 340m/s depending on atmospheric conditions.

Thanks for pointing this out!

Storm shadow max speed is 323 m/s. But presumably there wouldn't be a bang when it was launched.

[Spud]

The reflection on the car roof occurred two frames after the explosion. It's not the missile.

The people who looked the wrong way may have heard an echo of the sound.

https://ryanmcbeth.substack.com/p/analyzing-deceptive-imagery-from

If it was a mortar or howitzer that fired it, it would most likely be closer than the front line. Some travel at speeds lower than the speed of sound, so it's possible that the 2 second delay between the sound of the launch and the explosion is achievable given the right muzzle velocity. It would have been launched upwards to shoot into the town, so even if it was travelling nearer the speed of sound, the projectile would have had further to travel than the sound (travelling horizontally) so could still cause a 2 second delay.

[Nearly Sane]

Ukraine not happy with G20 statement. Russia happy.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-66716544

[jeremyp]

If it was a mortar or howitzer that fired it, it would most likely be closer than the front line. Some travel at speeds lower than the speed of sound, so it's possible that the 2 second delay between the sound of the launch and the explosion is achievable given the right muzzle velocity. It would have been launched upwards to shoot into the town, so even if it was travelling nearer the speed of sound, the projectile would have had further to travel than the sound (travelling horizontally) so could still cause a 2 second delay.

Whatever it was, I'm sceptical that the first sound was the launch of the missile/shell.

[Spud]

Whatever it was, I'm sceptical that the first sound was the launch of the missile/shell.

What makes you skeptical? What else would make that sound?
There are two other people who turn to look - they are between the red and the yellow umbrellas.

[jeremyp]

What makes you skeptical? What else would make that sound?
There are two other people who turn to look - they are between the red and the yellow umbrellas.

If it was a missile, its launch would not have sounded like that and it would very likely have been launched a long way away.

If it was a shell, I'd expect it to be supersonic, so the sound would reach us after the shell.