Author Topic: Arming the Ukrainians  (Read 160032 times)

Outrider

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2125 on: February 11, 2025, 04:04:06 PM »
That is what you are saying. I want to hear Russia's side of the story too.

Are there any reliable Russian sources?

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As it happens, Ukraine shelled a market place in Horlivka near the city of Donetsk 5 days ago with cluster rounds and killed five civilians.

The report I've seen - which is not verified by any media outlet I'd particularly trust - talks of conventional shelling and a follow-up drone attack, it doesn't mention cluster rounds.

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This type of attack over 10 years is what Russia says justifies its special military operation.

Over 10 years since the illegal Russian occupation of Crimea 11 years ago...

I would like to say I am neutral - I totally accept that Russia has committed many war crimes.

You'd like to, fine - but you don't come across as neutral. Your complete inability to accept that Russia's 'justifications' for the repeated invasions of neighbouring countries are fundamentally flawed is telling.

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However, AFU attacks on civilians in Donbas started long before 2022, during the time before Russia got heavily involved.

RUSSIA HAS BEEN OCCUPYING UKRAINIAN TERRITORY SINCE 2014! Russia invaded over a decade ago.

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It began when the Eastern Ukrainians refused to accept the new government after the Maidan protests and riots: that government was not democratically elected.

Lie.

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They wanted to remain part of Ukraine, but also wanted to maintain the military neutrality that Ukraine had had since its independence from the Soviet Union.

Even if that were true, and it's not clear that there was any great movement in favour of that, they're part of a broader country, and have to accept the broader electoral will.

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So they declared independence, and formed militia to defend against the new regime.

Which was an illegal, but internal matter for Ukraine to deal with.

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Russia sent them weapons to enable them to do this, while at the same time recognizing the Poroshenko government in Kiev.

It's not Russia's place to supply arms to a military uprising in a neighbouring democracy - if they feel they want to support separatists, there are political avenues for that.

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The Minsk Agreements were supposed to result in the Donbas being an autonomous region of Ukraine.

The agreements that were forced on Ukraine to stem the violence of the original Russian invasion, you mean?

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The Separatist militia only needed about 10,000 combat-ready troops for defensive purposes, because the Minsk agreements were meant to prevent offensives. For that reason they didn't mobilize more than that number. There came a point in November 2021 when they suspected that Kiev was not intending to keep to the agreements, and were ultimately intending to retake Donbas.

And why shouldn't they?

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Kiev denied this, but we now know, from Merkel and Hollande, that France and Germany secretly intended the agreements to allow Kiev time to build up its military. I've seen a document online, outlining the reasons why Ukraine wanted to prepare for conflict with Russia. Their objective appears to have been to deter Russia from attacking. It could be that they were actually preparing to retake Donbas and Crimea, and anticipating a Russian response.

Actually, it's likely they were preparing for further Russian aggression, given that the 'autonomous' region wasn't being as forthcoming to Russian demands as they'd expected, and it seemed likely Russia would invade again.

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In November 2021 the separatists appealed to Russia to send 30,000 troops to help defend against a potential AFU offensive.

There is nothing outside of Russian propoganda to suggest that anyone asked Russia to send troops.

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They did this because they didn't have enough troops ready in case of such an offensive. Again, this is because, with the Minsk agreements in place, they only needed 10,000 troops to keep the front line stable.

Regardless of the Minsk agreements, they were struggling to support that many armed personnel on their population anyway.

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At the same time, Russia was trying to get security guarantees from the West; the Biden administration refused these and as I recall, NATO carried out massive exercises near Russia's borders.

The border that Russia was already massing troops at? As to 'security guarantees', Russia was not in any danger. Nobody, not even the Russians, wants Russia. Russia's oligarchs want a warm-water port and ready access - it's not 'security guarantees' Russia wanted, it was easy targets.

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This led to Russia massing over 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, whose purpose was to secure the autonomy of Donbas and to install a pro-Russian government in Kiev.

The purpose was to create a land corridor to the Crimean Peninsula for logistical and economic reasons.

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So the tipping point appears to have been the breakdown of the Minsk agreements, at which point the Separatists realized that resuming of the conflict was inevitable, and their appeal to Russia for help because they were not prepared for the coming AFU offensive. Notably, the Russians had told the Separatists that they would not occupy the territories. But the Separatists said that this would lead to the AFU coming back in again, and asked the Russians to keep troops there.

No, the tipping point was Russia's initial invasion in 2014, and their illegal annexation of Crimea. Did Ukraine lie about accepting the Minsk accords - it seems so, I'm pretty sure I would have done the same thing. Did Russia also like about the Minsk Accords - it seems so. Just like they've lied about their other half-dozen invasions of foreign territories over the last twenty or thirty years.

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I hope that sounds at least a little bit unbiased?

If you're not biased, then you're deluded - up to you which of those you think is preferable.

O.
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Maeght

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2126 on: February 11, 2025, 04:21:12 PM »
I would like to say I am neutral - I totally accept that Russia has committed many war crimes. However, AFU attacks on civilians in Donbas started long before 2022, during the time before Russia got heavily involved. It began when the Eastern Ukrainians refused to accept the new government after the Maidan protests and riots: that government was not democratically elected. They wanted to remain part of Ukraine, but also wanted to maintain the military neutrality that Ukraine had had since its independence from the Soviet Union. So they declared independence, and formed militia to defend against the new regime. Russia sent them weapons to enable them to do this, while at the same time recognizing the Poroshenko government in Kiev.
The Minsk Agreements were supposed to result in the Donbas being an autonomous region of Ukraine. The Separatist militia only needed about 10,000 combat-ready troops for defensive purposes, because the Minsk agreements were meant to prevent offensives. For that reason they didn't mobilize more than that number.
There came a point in November 2021 when they suspected that Kiev was not intending to keep to the agreements, and were ultimately intending to retake Donbas. Kiev denied this, but we now know, from Merkel and Hollande, that France and Germany secretly intended the agreements to allow Kiev time to build up its military. I've seen a document online, outlining the reasons why Ukraine wanted to prepare for conflict with Russia. Their objective appears to have been to deter Russia from attacking. It could be that they were actually preparing to retake Donbas and Crimea, and anticipating a Russian response.
In November 2021 the separatists appealed to Russia to send 30,000 troops to help defend against a potential AFU offensive. They did this because they didn't have enough troops ready in case of such an offensive. Again, this is because, with the Minsk agreements in place, they only needed 10,000 troops to keep the front line stable.
At the same time, Russia was trying to get security guarantees from the West; the Biden administration refused these and as I recall, NATO carried out massive exercises near Russia's borders. This led to Russia massing over 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, whose purpose was to secure the autonomy of Donbas and to install a pro-Russian government in Kiev.
So the tipping point appears to have been the breakdown of the Minsk agreements, at which point the Separatists realized that resuming of the conflict was inevitable, and their appeal to Russia for help because they were not prepared for the coming AFU offensive. Notably, the Russians had told the Separatists that they would not occupy the territories. But the Separatists said that this would lead to the AFU coming back in again, and asked the Russians to keep troops there.

On the subject of cluster ammunition, I read that Ukraine had a lot of this left over from Soviet times, which it had started destroying. Last year it had almost run out of shells altogether: does that suggest that it had used up those old cluster rounds? And also, Russia being a more powerful country, of course it is going to use more of a type of weapon than Ukraine, whether artillery or whatever.

I hope that sounds at least a little bit unbiased?

It doesn't sound unbiased, no. You have presented the Russian case/position with nothing from the Ukrainian view.

ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2127 on: February 13, 2025, 10:22:45 AM »
Trump's art of the deal: say you'll give russia everything it wants before a single negotiation has taken place. As long as you're willing to massage his ego, he'll suck you off and even pay you for the privilege.

Fuck Trump and fuck America! Oh! And btw, bomb moscow and Mar-a-Lago!
« Last Edit: February 13, 2025, 10:24:52 AM by ad_orientem »
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Aruntraveller

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2128 on: February 13, 2025, 10:25:46 AM »
Trump's art of the deal: say you'll give russia everything it wants before a single negotiation has taken the place. As long as you're willing to massage his ego, he'll suck you off and even pay you for the privilege.

Fuck Trump and fuck America! Oh! And btw, bomb moscow and Mar-a-Lago!

That's a little bombastic, even if it is essentially bang on the money.
If a man lies with a male as with a woman, both of them have committed an abomination; they shall surely be put to death; their blood is upon them. - God is Love.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2129 on: February 13, 2025, 10:28:51 AM »
That's a little bombastic, even if it is essentially bang on the money.
and bombtastic

ETA  because of Aruntraveller',since remarkable, silver got this going round in my head with Trump singing it.

https://youtu.be/6W5pq4bIzIw?si=Wvqas0kxwHXZW2jx
« Last Edit: February 13, 2025, 10:34:00 AM by Nearly Sane »

Nearly Sane

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2130 on: February 13, 2025, 10:39:13 AM »
and bombtastic

ETA  because of Aruntraveller',since remarkable, silver got this going round in my head with Trump singing it.

https://youtu.be/6W5pq4bIzIw?si=Wvqas0kxwHXZW2jx
  And, damn you Aruntraveller and Shaggy, this would be the obvious follow up

https://youtu.be/2g5Hz17C4is?si=BW-mEjdTqAdNWbYK

Sassy

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2131 on: February 14, 2025, 08:04:46 AM »
Trump's art of the deal: say you'll give russia everything it wants before a single negotiation has taken place. As long as you're willing to massage his ego, he'll suck you off and even pay you for the privilege.

Fuck Trump and fuck America! Oh! And btw, bomb Moscow and Mar-a-Lago!

Not worthy of you, AO. :)

If, I thought for one minute, it was as you write above I would be worried to.
You know enough about God and history, so why worry when you know the truth that God has a purpose for all who come to power. Trump too hands on.  He is always determined to say " Do as I say, or this will happen to you". I believe Trump tells them what will happen if they don't come to an agreement. They have a choice to make behind the eye covering wall of the press/public and if they don't heed to his threats then suffer the consequences.

We know how it ends. As humans we are responsible for not following pack mentality but the human way of doing things right and good. The people put them in power they can bring them out of their power too.
We know we have to work together to abolish war and terrorism to create a compassionate  world in which Justice and peace prevail. Love ;D   Einstein
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ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2132 on: February 14, 2025, 09:17:35 AM »
Not worthy of you, AO. :)

If, I thought for one minute, it was as you write above I would be worried to.
You know enough about God and history, so why worry when you know the truth that God has a purpose for all who come to power. Trump too hands on.  He is always determined to say " Do as I say, or this will happen to you". I believe Trump tells them what will happen if they don't come to an agreement. They have a choice to make behind the eye covering wall of the press/public and if they don't heed to his threats then suffer the consequences.

We know how it ends. As humans we are responsible for not following pack mentality but the human way of doing things right and good. The people put them in power they can bring them out of their power too.

Believe me, I can be much worse. It's time we made russia pay, by making it not exist anymore.
Peace through superior firepower.
Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.

Aruntraveller

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2133 on: February 14, 2025, 09:26:06 AM »
Not worthy of you, AO. :)

If, I thought for one minute, it was as you write above I would be worried to.
You know enough about God and history, so why worry when you know the truth that God has a purpose for all who come to power. Trump too hands on.  He is always determined to say " Do as I say, or this will happen to you". I believe Trump tells them what will happen if they don't come to an agreement. They have a choice to make behind the eye covering wall of the press/public and if they don't heed to his threats then suffer the consequences.

We know how it ends. As humans we are responsible for not following pack mentality but the human way of doing things right and good. The people put them in power they can bring them out of their power too.

Are you really this naive?

Trump is compliant in his dealings with Putin. He thinks he is making a deal with him, all he is doing is giving him a licence to continue his expansionist vision.

Have you even studied history? It is full of leaders who come to power through a democratic system and then manipulate/destroy that system so that they can stay in power in perpetuity.

Mark my words, Trump, if he lives long enough, will extend his time in office. ( For clarity, the lives long enough bit is a recognition of his age and health, not a reference to anything more sinister)
If a man lies with a male as with a woman, both of them have committed an abomination; they shall surely be put to death; their blood is upon them. - God is Love.

Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2134 on: February 14, 2025, 09:56:06 AM »
There is nothing outside of Russian propoganda to suggest that anyone asked Russia to send troops.

Alexander Khodakovski did.

Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2135 on: February 16, 2025, 10:43:19 AM »
Believe me, I can be much worse. It's time we made russia pay, by making it not exist anymore.
Here is the draught agreement which Russia wanted the US to sign back in December 2021:
https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/?lang=en
The logic is clear: Russia doesn't want any nuclear activity anywhere near its borders. The US would be the same, see Cuban missile crisis. Why doesn't Russia have such a problem with Finland joining NATO? Because Finland's constitution does not allow it to have any nuclear weapons on its territory. The US did not respect Russia's concerns about missiles that could carry nuclear warheads being deployed in Ukraine.

ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2136 on: February 16, 2025, 10:48:49 AM »
Here is the draught agreement which Russia wanted the US to sign back in December 2021:
https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/?lang=en
The logic is clear: Russia doesn't want any nuclear activity anywhere near its borders. The US would be the same, see Cuban missile crisis. Why doesn't Russia have such a problem with Finland joining NATO? Because Finland's constitution does not allow it to have any nuclear weapons on its territory. The US did not respect Russia's concerns about missiles that could carry nuclear warheads being deployed in Ukraine.

That's bullshit. There were never any nuclear weapons going to be deployed in Ukraine. Also, it makes little difference where nuclear missiles are deployed with regards to closeness. And remember, Ukraine was forced to give up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for aecurity guarantees, something it no doubt regrets now.
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Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2137 on: February 16, 2025, 01:30:47 PM »
That's bullshit. There were never any nuclear weapons going to be deployed in Ukraine.
I can agree on this, but iirc Biden would not guarantee it.
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Also, it makes little difference where nuclear missiles are deployed with regards to closeness.
It does, because if a missile launch is detected by Russia, it has to decide on a response, so the longer the time available for that, the safer the world is from destruction.
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And remember, Ukraine was forced to give up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees, something it no doubt regrets now.
Those weapons were controlled by Russia, so Ukraine could not have used them.

Outrider

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2138 on: February 16, 2025, 07:25:44 PM »
I can agree on this, but iirc Biden would not guarantee it.

That wasn't the part of the accord that predominantly made him reluctant to sign it. Why would he abandon the possibility of former Soviet nations joining NATO in the face of Russian aggression, to appease and make easier Russian aggression? He's giving up something the US has no intention of doing, in return for giving Russia an easy path to further invasions.

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It does, because if a missile launch is detected by Russia, it has to decide on a response, so the longer the time available for that, the safer the world is from destruction.

Given how many US - and other - ballistic missile subs can park three hundred yards off Russian's coastline, that's not going to alleviate that issue. Notwithstanding that, at that range, they wouldn't detect a launch because it wouldn't be an ICBM, it would be a ground-hugging cruise missile on a horizontal or angled launch ramp - far lesser heat signature, far lower radar cross-section, naturally camouflaged against the terrain.

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Those weapons were controlled by Russia, so Ukraine could not have used them.

Because they had no access to the silos to change the commands and circuitry? They didn't have immediate control, but they could have estabished control in relatively short order, if they'd wanted. They didn't want, because they weren't interested then, just as they aren't interested now, in being a nuclear-armed power.

O.
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jeremyp

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2139 on: February 17, 2025, 10:34:20 AM »
That's bullshit. There were never any nuclear weapons going to be deployed in Ukraine.
There were nuclear weapons deployed in Ukraine - Soviet ones.

But you are right. It is bullshit. NATO does not represent a threat to Russia and Putin knows it.Ukraine was not going to join NATO until Russia got aggressive and Putin knows it. All of the stuff about security threats on the Russian border were just pretexts for Putin's land grab.
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Sassy

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2140 on: February 17, 2025, 12:15:32 PM »
Believe me, I can be much worse. It's time we made Russia pay, by making it not exist anymore.


Russia has to save face. I believe the powers that be, those hidden forced his hand. They have made him look a fool. There is nothing to gain.
Trump is determined to make USA look good. He doesn't care what others think but he knows how to wield his sword of power over their heads. My way or the highway.

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ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2141 on: February 17, 2025, 01:57:08 PM »

Russia has to save face. I believe the powers that be, those hidden forced his hand. They have made him look a fool. There is nothing to gain.
Trump is determined to make USA look good. He doesn't care what others think but he knows how to wield his sword of power over their heads. My way or the highway.

Again, what?
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Outrider

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2142 on: February 17, 2025, 02:37:02 PM »
Russia has to save face.

No, it doesn't, nobody outside of Russia thinks Russia is anything other than a corrupted shithole. PUTIN wants - not needs, wants - to save face, and wants to be able to present to his captive countryman the idea that this has accomplished something more than destroyed ammunition stockpiles and killed hundreds of thousands of people. We don't need to give any shits what Putin wants - what the world needs is for us, collectively, to hold Putin to account to try to stop him doing this again. Something we have failed to do on any of the last five or six foreign invasions he's launched.

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I believe the powers that be, those hidden forced his hand.

Nobody forced his hand. What they've done, what some of them are continuing to do, is given him the impression that it wasn't worth making a fuss about.

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They have made him look a fool.

He did that all by himself.

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There is nothing to gain.

There's a cycle to be broken, here. If he ends up this time with more than he started with, if he can pitch this as a win, then he's encouraged to do the same again.

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Trump is determined to make USA look good.

Trump doesn't give two shits if the USA looks good, he cares that he looks like he's achieved something, to the limited number of people whose opinion he cares about. Fox News and  the other right-wing news channels in the US can polish his turds for the domestic audience, he just needs the world's oligarchs to keep sending him money for making their dreams come true - validating authoritarianism and destablising established wealthy economies to they can sponsor populists to slide deregulation in alongside insularity and racism.

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He doesn't care what others think but he knows how to wield his sword of power over their heads. My way or the highway.

He's a bully. We know. What we don't know is if he's actually got the capacity to keep it up, or if once people decide to ignore him and is antics he'll just wither away. Is his stick actually big enough, or has he overplayed his hand?

O.

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Nearly Sane

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2143 on: February 17, 2025, 02:42:35 PM »
"PM 'ready' to put troops on ground in Ukraine to protect peace" - well it's not at all clear if this is a real consideration but were it to happen, I think any support for it would drain quickly if bodies started bring brought back

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gxgxl3grgo

Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2144 on: February 17, 2025, 02:57:13 PM »
Why would he abandon the possibility of former Soviet nations joining NATO in the face of Russian aggression, to appease and make easier Russian aggression
From what I've read, it's to do with not increasing your country's security at the expense of your neighbouring country's security. To paraphrase, "Mutual defence treaties would have been sufficient to ensure Ukraine's security, rather than expanding NATO to Russia's borders". I took this to mean something like a European defence pact.
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Given how many US - and other - ballistic missile subs can park three hundred yards off Russian's coastline, that's not going to alleviate that issue
That was part of Russia's draft treaty in 2021, iirc. Each not bringing submarines or heavy bombers near the other's country.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2025, 03:03:20 PM by Spud »

Outrider

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2145 on: February 17, 2025, 03:05:32 PM »
From what I've read, it's to do with not increasing your country's security at the expense of your neighbouring country's security. To paraphrase, "Mutual defence treaties would have been adequate to ensure security, rather than expanding NATO to Russia's borders".

NATO IS A MUTUAL DEFENCE TREATY!

NATO Charter, article 3 - "In order more effectively to achieve the objectives of this Treaty, the Parties, separately and jointly, by means of continuous and effective self-help and mutual aid, will maintain and develop their individual and collective capacity to resist armed attack"

Of course Putin is trying to artificially create a difference, he's trying to delegitamise NATO, because NATO stands in the way of his Imperialist and territorial ambitions in Easter Europe.

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I took this to mean something like an Eastern European defence pact.That was part of the draft treaty in 2021, iiirc. Each not bringing submarines or heavy bombers near the other's country.

That's not a mutual defence agreement, that's the terms of a peace negotiation to bring about the cessation of war, in this instance a war of aggression by Russia. Why would Ukraine, which has twice been invade by Russia in the last decade, be considering its mutual defence pact to be with Russia? Why would any of the other former Soviet nations be interested in that, given Russia's track record in recent years?

O.
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jeremyp

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2146 on: February 17, 2025, 04:46:06 PM »
PUTIN wants - not needs, wants - to save face,

No, he needs to save face to avoid an accidental trip out of a window or a polonium cocktail. This is a matter of life and death for Putin on a personal level.
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Dicky Underpants

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2147 on: February 17, 2025, 05:44:07 PM »
No, he needs to save face to avoid an accidental trip out of a window or a polonium cocktail. This is a matter of life and death for Putin on a personal level.
But he has been controlling the defenestrations and polonium cocktail deliveries so far with impunity.
John Sweeney suggested to a young woman viciously burnt and mutilated at the age of eight by Putin's grisly gang : "Russians are afraid to talk, isn't that so?"
"No" she said, "we are afraid to breathe."
« Last Edit: February 17, 2025, 05:54:45 PM by Dicky Underpants »
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Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2148 on: February 17, 2025, 07:15:55 PM »
NATO IS A MUTUAL DEFENCE TREATY!

NATO Charter, article 3 - "In order more effectively to achieve the objectives of this Treaty, the Parties, separately and jointly, by means of continuous and effective self-help and mutual aid, will maintain and develop their individual and collective capacity to resist armed attack"
A defence treaty containing two nuclear states who attacked and decimated Iraq and Afghanistan.

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Of course Putin is trying to artificially create a difference, he's trying to delegitamise NATO, because NATO stands in the way of his Imperialist and territorial ambitions in Easter Europe.
It does look that way, doesn't it. Except that the territory it has gained is the result of NATO expansion.

From the military point of view, why is NATO allowed to fear Russian expansion (or aggression) and Russia is not allowed to fear NATO expansion (or aggression)?

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That's not a mutual defence agreement, that's the terms of a peace negotiation to bring about the cessation of war, in this instance a war of aggression by Russia. Why would Ukraine, which has twice been invade by Russia in the last decade, be considering its mutual defence pact to be with Russia? Why would any of the other former Soviet nations be interested in that, given Russia's track record in recent years?

O.
I didn't mean a defence pact between Russia and Ukraine. I meant between Ukraine and Europe without the US. In terms of conventional military strength, this would be a better balance. There could be a clause that says that if Russia uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, the US would defend Ukraine. The thing here is that the Russian nuclear capability was always a response to the US developing and using it's nuclear weapons . We have to assume that Russia will not use them against Europe unless attacked first.

ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2149 on: February 17, 2025, 07:31:55 PM »
From the military point of view, why is NATO allowed to fear Russian expansion (or aggression) and Russia is not allowed to fear NATO expansion (or aggression)?

Here's some help, seeing as you're unable to tell the difference.🤡
Peace through superior firepower.
Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it.