Author Topic: The next PM... (Read 29173 times)

SteveH · « **Reply #375 on:** October 19, 2022, 10:42:39 PM »

Another one bites the dust. Can Truss be far behind?

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #376 on:** October 19, 2022, 11:46:01 PM »

Quote from: Steve H on October 19, 2022, 10:42:39 PM

Another one bites the dust. Can Truss be far behind?

Currently 5/1 on to be gone this year.

Harrowby Hall · « **Reply #377 on:** October 20, 2022, 08:47:32 AM »

The situation that "Government" in the UK finds itself is largely due to the insistence on retaining first-past-the-post.

FPTP encourages political systems which have very few parties since small parties will seldom win any seats. The two major parties in Britain have tended to represent tribal interests rather than political philosophies. The party election which resulted in Truss becoming party leader exemplified this - Liz Truss was closer to the tribal ideal than Rishi Sunak.

One aspect of the election is of interest here. The postal election took place over several weeks - people who returned their ballot papers early, apparently, voted overwhelmingly in favour of Truss, as time passed more people progressively voted for Sunak. So it's likely that early returns were tribal rather than rational.

Another weird voting procedure is that used in the House of Commons where MPs traipse though lobbies for a (literal) head count. There are reports that, yesterday. this procedure enabled party whips to intimidate Conservative MPs into voting according to party demands. Tradition is the enemy of rationality.

I think that the true villain in the whole of this business is Cameron. Following the Scottish referendum he had an ideal opportunity to set up a commission to to consider the constitutional needs and operation of a major nation in the 21st Century. Instead he chose EVAL ...

Still, Cameron was eventually encouraged to find his true niche - gofer for a bent Australian millionaire.

jeremyp · « **Reply #378 on:** October 20, 2022, 09:58:08 AM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on October 19, 2022, 09:03:52 PM

It was taken from their news feed at the time.

Their news feed had to back track when it became obvious that nobody in the Conservative Party knew if they had actually resigned or not.

These people are supposed to be running our country. If they had any integrity, they'd call a general election now so they can sort out their internal issues without the distraction of having to govern.

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #379 on:** October 20, 2022, 10:19:24 AM »

Quote from: jeremyp on October 20, 2022, 09:58:08 AM

Their news feed had to back track when it became obvious that nobody in the Conservative Party knew if they had actually resigned or not.

These people are supposed to be running our country. If they had any integrity, they'd call a general election now so they can sort out their internal issues without the distraction of having to govern.

And the flip-flopping over last night's vote.

First it was declared to be a confidence vote.

Then presumably when the government was concerned they might lose it was declared not to be a confidence vote, just 10 minutes before the vote.

Then when they won, they retrospectively declared it to be a confidence vote again.

And if this is the case I gather the party will need to remove the whip from those that didn't vote the government's way - which would include the two previous tory PMs!! And the guy who was Truss' chancellor until a week ago.

Aruntraveller · « **Reply #380 on:** October 20, 2022, 10:20:17 AM »

SteveH · « **Reply #381 on:** October 20, 2022, 10:26:57 AM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on October 20, 2022, 10:19:24 AM

And the flip-flopping over last night's vote.

First it was declared to be a confidence vote.

Then presumably when the government was concerned they might lose it was declared not to be a confidence vote, just 10 minutes before the vote.

Then when they won, they retrospectively declared it to be a confidence vote again.

And if this is the case I gather the party will need to remove the whip from those that didn't vote the government's way - which would include the two previous tory PMs!! And the guy who was Truss' chancellor until a week ago.

Johnson is currently in the Carribean; I think he was officially excused.

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #382 on:** October 20, 2022, 10:38:45 AM »

Quote from: Steve H on October 20, 2022, 10:26:57 AM

Johnson is currently in the Carribean; I think he was officially excused.

On official business?

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #383 on:** October 20, 2022, 10:39:58 AM »

Quote from: Steve H on October 20, 2022, 10:26:57 AM

Johnson is currently in the Carribean; I think he was officially excused.

Yep, the list that I think was being circulated was Tory MPs that hadn't voted with the govt bit had no indication of those whose absence was already accepted.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #384 on:** October 20, 2022, 10:41:23 AM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on October 20, 2022, 10:38:45 AM

On official business?

No, but given the short notice would have been accepted as ok. That Johnson is currently grifting and holidaying is a different matter from the vote.

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #385 on:** October 20, 2022, 10:58:00 AM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on October 20, 2022, 10:41:23 AM

No, but given the short notice would have been accepted as ok. That Johnson is currently grifting and holidaying is a different matter from the vote.

Fair enough - looks like he was paired.

Udayana · « **Reply #386 on:** October 20, 2022, 11:21:58 AM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on October 20, 2022, 10:19:24 AM

And the flip-flopping over last night's vote.

First it was declared to be a confidence vote.

Then presumably when the government was concerned they might lose it was declared not to be a confidence vote, just 10 minutes before the vote.

Then when they won, they retrospectively declared it to be a confidence vote again.

And if this is the case I gather the party will need to remove the whip from those that didn't vote the government's way - which would include the two previous tory PMs!! And the guy who was Truss' chancellor until a week ago.

The oddest thing is that they made it a confidence vote even though they would have won the vote anyway.

Now, after confirming it was a confidence vote, they will asses any punishment for voting the "wrong way" taking into account reasonable excuses - not as harshly as they were informed yesterday.

jeremyp · « **Reply #387 on:** October 20, 2022, 11:26:37 AM »

Quote from: Harrowby Hall on October 20, 2022, 08:47:32 AM

The situation that "Government" in the UK finds itself is largely due to the insistence on retaining first-past-the-post.

No it isn't.

Since the 1830's governments of all stripes have managed to run the UK without the current chaos using essentially the same system.

Note that I am not defending FPTP, I am claiming the current chaos is not caused by it.

What has caused the current political chaos is a series of crises that each have led to culls of the most able people. It's the same dynamic as what happened to the Labour Party when they lost the 2010 general election. When they lost that, everybody associated with the loss and the "New Labour" government was tainted but the problem was that the people who were tainted were all the most able people in the party. The best person to take over the leadership from Gordon Brown would have been David Miliband. He was not chosen because of his association with the Blair and Brown governments. Ed Miliband's team was selected mainly from people who had avoided being tainted i.e. people were not able enough to take a significant role in Brown's government. Then, when Ed Miliband lost the next general election, and resigned, the process repeated. It's only now that Labour is getting back to a point where it has good politicians in key roles.

Now let's examine the Conservatives. The same process has been happening, starting with the Brexit vote. The government lost the Brexit vote and Cameron resigned. He and all the Remainers in his government were now tainted. That's a fair proportion of all the able politicians in the Tory Party at the time. The only way for a Remainer to get on in the Tory Party was to recant their own principles as May did and as Truss did. Since then there have been two more leadership changes and on each occasion, the people associated with the old leadership and often the opponents of the eventual winner were effectively culled. With Liz Truss we are now down to the dregs and it's no surprise they lack the ability to run a country.

This cycle is going to continue until somehow a general election is forced because the parliamentary party hasn't got anybody left who is both electable by the party as a whole and competent.

jeremyp · « **Reply #388 on:** October 20, 2022, 11:38:23 AM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on October 20, 2022, 10:19:24 AM

And the flip-flopping over last night's vote.

First it was declared to be a confidence vote.

Then presumably when the government was concerned they might lose it was declared not to be a confidence vote, just 10 minutes before the vote.

Then when they won, they retrospectively declared it to be a confidence vote again.

My hypothesis is that they thought they might lose the vote or at least have a significant rebellion so they declared it a confidence vote to put pressure on the Tory MPs to vote the right way. Then they thought it might be backfiring, so they backtracked. The final position was just the normal spin you put on a significant victory.

Quote

And if this is the case I gather the party will need to remove the whip from those that didn't vote the government's way - which would include the two previous tory PMs!! And the guy who was Truss' chancellor until a week ago.

The BBC says they are considering proportionate disciplinary action.

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #389 on:** October 20, 2022, 12:03:26 PM »

Quote from: jeremyp on October 20, 2022, 11:38:23 AM

My hypothesis is that they thought they might lose the vote or at least have a significant rebellion so they declared it a confidence vote to put pressure on the Tory MPs to vote the right way. Then they thought it might be backfiring, so they backtracked. The final position was just the normal spin you put on a significant victory.

Yup I agree - but comes across as completely incompetent.

Quote from: jeremyp on October 20, 2022, 11:38:23 AM

The BBC says they are considering proportionate disciplinary action.

Indeed - the line was much tougher in advance with I think a much clearer view that anyone failing to toe the party line would lose the whip. I guess Truss has a challenging line to walk. Remove the whip and create more chaos and greater numbers of people out to get her ... but if the whip has been removed any letter sent to the 1922 committee would no longer be valid.