Author Topic: The next PM... (Read 27001 times)

Walt Zingmatilder · « **Reply #450 on:** October 22, 2022, 10:29:17 AM »

Quote from: SqueakyVoice on October 22, 2022, 09:12:26 AM

You can think about it a bit more mathematically to work out each bet would be x/20,So the odds would 35/20, 38/20 and 156/20 (respectively)so, looking at those odds, Riski is the favourite bet.(I'm pretty sure Alice Roberts would keep saying "it's a bit more complicated than that." But that's only because it is.)

I never knew Alice Roberts was a betting man.

SqueakyVoice · « **Reply #451 on:** October 22, 2022, 10:41:52 AM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on October 22, 2022, 10:16:22 AM

You missed that Sunak is 7/4 ON. Which is odds on so the notation gets switched to 4/7 - I find it easy to forget tgat this would not be understood.

Yes, you're right I did miss that.

So 4/7 ~> 12/21 (not perfect, but easier than using a pencil and paper). It still shows that Riski is the favourite.

SqueakyVoice · « **Reply #452 on:** October 22, 2022, 10:46:24 AM »

Quote from: Walt Zingmatilder on October 22, 2022, 10:29:17 AM

I never knew Alice Roberts was a betting man.

She isn't a betting man. She's a Professor.

SteveH · « **Reply #453 on:** October 22, 2022, 10:54:15 AM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on October 22, 2022, 10:16:22 AM

You missed that Sunak is 7/4 ON. Which is odds on so the notation gets switched to 4/7 - I find it easy to forget tgat this would not be understood.

That's what I finally worked out that it meant. Why on earth don't they just express it as 4/7?

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #454 on:** October 22, 2022, 12:50:45 PM »

Quote from: Steve H on October 22, 2022, 10:54:15 AM

That's what I finally worked out that it meant. Why on earth don't they just express it as 4/7?

I doubt it's known. I suspect it's about how numbers and odds 'feel' to those doing it. If you picture a pie chart of tge chances of sonething like 7/4 i.e that you are saying in 4 chnces out of 11, the thing will happen, it's easier to switch that when it's odd on i.e. 7 chances out of 11 when hearing 7/4 on than 4/7. Add to that the indicator 'on' makes clear that it's seen as the likely thing without an individual thinking about the numbers.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #455 on:** October 22, 2022, 02:31:50 PM »

Sunak now 3/1 on

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #456 on:** October 22, 2022, 03:37:52 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on October 22, 2022, 02:31:50 PM

Sunak now 3/1 on

Though with claims that Johnson has the 100 MPs that has slipped to 9/4 on

SteveH · « **Reply #457 on:** October 22, 2022, 06:48:43 PM »

I thought Johnson was carrying a giant sword in his belt when I first saw the photo from which I cropped this! One way of eliminating rivals, I suppose...

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #458 on:** October 22, 2022, 07:19:18 PM »

And it looks like people do not believe the claims of Johnson as Sunak is now 4/1 on.

SteveH · « **Reply #459 on:** October 22, 2022, 08:37:53 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on October 22, 2022, 07:19:18 PM

And it looks like people do not believe the claims of Johnson as Sunak is now 4/1 on.

If he starts pretending to care about ordinary workers on low wages, the homeless, etc., remember he's worth c.£750,000,000. He could give £748,000,000 away to charities, and still have enough to live on in luxury for the rest of his life.

Harrowby Hall · « **Reply #460 on:** October 22, 2022, 09:19:55 PM »

Quote from: Steve H on October 22, 2022, 08:37:53 PM

If he starts pretending to care about ordinary workers on low wages, the homeless, etc., remember he's worth c.£750,000,000. He could give £748,000,000 away to charities, and still have enough to live on in luxury for the rest of his life.

But it isn't Rishi Sunak that is worth £750,000,000 - it's his wife.

SteveH · « **Reply #461 on:** October 22, 2022, 09:23:29 PM »

Quote from: Harrowby Hall on October 22, 2022, 09:19:55 PM

But it isn't Rishi Sunak that is worth £750,000,000 - it's his wife.

A fair amount of it is his, from his days moving pretend electronic money around.
He's wealthier than King Charles!

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #462 on:** October 22, 2022, 10:01:31 PM »

Rumour is that Johnson not going to stand. If so, begin to wonder if there might be a deal being done.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #463 on:** October 22, 2022, 10:49:05 PM »

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #464 on:** October 22, 2022, 11:18:47 PM »

Ffs!

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1583836182781517830?t=1VtEOa07hKzKjzxZ9lj2fg&s=19

SqueakyVoice · « **Reply #465 on:** October 23, 2022, 11:12:30 AM »

Quote from: Steve H on October 22, 2022, 08:37:53 PM

If he starts pretending to care about ordinary workers on low wages, the homeless, etc., remember he's ...

...morally bankrupt.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2022/aug/05/rishi-sunak-admits-taking-money-from-deprived-areas-in-leaked-footage-video

jeremyp · « **Reply #466 on:** October 23, 2022, 02:01:59 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on October 22, 2022, 11:18:47 PM

Ffs!

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1583836182781517830?t=1VtEOa07hKzKjzxZ9lj2fg&s=19

How many kinds of wrongness can one person display in a single phone conversation?

jeremyp · « **Reply #467 on:** October 23, 2022, 02:04:10 PM »

Quote from: Steve H on October 22, 2022, 09:23:29 PM

A fair amount of it is his, from his days moving pretend electronic money around.
He's wealthier than King Charles!

So basically, you don't like rich people having a role in running the country. Isn't that something of an ad hominem?

SteveH · « **Reply #468 on:** October 23, 2022, 04:24:18 PM »

Quote from: jeremyp on October 23, 2022, 02:04:10 PM

So basically, you don't like rich people having a role in running the country. Isn't that something of an ad hominem?

I don't like people being ridiculously rich, when they could give much of their wealth away to charities. No-one needs £750m, and there aren't many ways of becoming that rich that are morally acceptable.

SqueakyVoice · « **Reply #469 on:** October 23, 2022, 04:56:17 PM »

Quote from: Steve H on October 22, 2022, 06:48:43 PM

One way of eliminating rivals, I suppose...

And there was I thinking, what a knob.

SteveH · « **Reply #470 on:** October 23, 2022, 05:11:49 PM »

Risky has 147 backers, while Johnson is still well short of 100. Beginning to look as though Risky will be the only candidate by the deadline, so there won't be an election.

Gordon · « **Reply #471 on:** October 23, 2022, 06:12:36 PM »

If Johnson does manage 100, and Mordaunt drops out, then Tory MPs vote again and its seems likely Sunak would probably win that round hands down - but that round counts for nothing other than 'guidance' for the members as they then vote - and bearing in mind they were naive enough to vote for Truss they may well be naive enough to vote for Boris the Liar.

If so, then the new Tory PM wouldn't have the support of the majority of Tory MPs and I can't see how the Tory party doesn't implode - but if they do I'll be cheering from the sidelines (especially at the discomforture of the Scottish Tories).

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #472 on:** October 23, 2022, 08:32:28 PM »

Gordon · « **Reply #473 on:** October 23, 2022, 08:44:06 PM »

That merits a laugh!

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #474 on:** October 23, 2022, 09:04:36 PM »

Johnson not standing

News:

Author Topic: The next PM... (Read 27001 times)