Less than half the population in England and Wales is Christian

[ProfessorDavey]

I think I've said I prefer your prediction that only 6% will respond as christian in a few census time rather than JeremyP's even more dismal but unlikely 0%.

However the census asks about religious affiliation so the 6% is going to be bolstered by nominals and believers but non attenders ( people with Kids, People with Jobs, people just too shagged out at the end of the week ) which segues us into your question of the old and the young.

I think you are misinterpreting what I said.

6% is broadly the number of people who attend church weekly. This is a little out of date so numbers now are probably a little lower than that now and between the two largest denominations, CofE and RCC weekly church attendance is roughly 1.5M, which represents about 2.5% of the population.

But attendance is dropping at a similar rate to 'census' christian affiliation - see data in previous post on RCC and you get similar declines for most other denominations (except some very small ones that impact little on overall attendance).

So what will happen over the next couple of decades - well christianity won't vanish, but every aspect of christian religiosity (census affiliation, belief/importance of christianity, attendance) will continue to decline. Likely this will be at similar rates to what we have seen over the past 20 years. So I'd anticipate (and you can be pretty confident on this if you understand why numbers are declining) that by say 2040 we'd have about 30% of the population saying they are census christians, with perhaps just 3% regularly attending church.

These numbers are, of course, not zero but we will probably end up with a situation where worshiping christians aren't that disimilar in numbers to worshiping muslims. But in both cases these will be a tiny minority, with the vast majority having no meaningful engagement with any religion.

[ProfessorDavey]

Anecdotely i've always known  elderly people returning to church, widows and the like since there is guaranteed company and i've known people return with age because they have thought about mortality and what not.

Anecdotally - I've always know elderly people who used to go to church when younger but stopped later in life - often they went when their kids were younger, probably because they thought it important when their kids were growing up. But once the kids reached adulthood they no longer felt the need to go and stopped.

But anecdotes aren't worth a bean when trying to determine whether people become more religious as they get older or not - what you need is high quality research. And of course this has been done - so called cohort studies that follow cohorts of people across many years to look for changes in behaviour.

And what do these studies show in the UK. Well, that once people reach adulthood there is very little change in religiosity as people get older. A 25 year old church-goer becomes a 50 year old church-goer who becomes a 70 year old church-goer. A 25 year old non-church-goer becomes a 50 year old non-church-goer who becomes a 70 year old non-church-goer. There is no evidence that people get more religious and become more likely to go to church as they get older. In fact if there is any effect, and it is pretty marginal, overall people get slightly less religious and less likely to go to church as they get older.

The reason why churches are full (well actually not full, but you get my point) of elderly people isn't because these people have started going to church later in life. Nope they were always church goers. But the point is that today's 70 year olds were far more religious and more likely to go to church when they were 30 back in 1980 that today's 30 year olds. That's why the demographic of churchgoers is elderly, not because people change in religiosity as they get older. And that is why you can be confident that the decline will continue for decades as the most religious cohort (the elderly) die and are replaced by the least religious cohort (the youngest). For the decline to stop you'd need the current twenty-somethings to suddenly become as religious as their grandparents - and that just isn't going to happen.

[jeremyp]

Anecdotally - I've always know elderly people who used to go to church when younger but stopped later in life - often they went when their kids were younger, probably because they thought it important when their kids were growing up. But once the kids reached adulthood they no longer felt the need to go and stopped.

But anecdotes aren't worth a bean when trying to determine whether people become more religious as they get older or not - what you need is high quality research. And of course this has been done - so called cohort studies that follow cohorts of people across many years to look for changes in behaviour.

And what do these studies show in the UK. Well, that once people reach adulthood there is very little change in religiosity as people get older. A 25 year old church-goer becomes a 50 year old church-goer who becomes a 70 year old church-goer. A 25 year old non-church-goer becomes a 50 year old non-church-goer who becomes a 70 year old non-church-goer. There is no evidence that people get more religious and become more likely to go to church as they get older. In fact if there is any effect, and it is pretty marginal, overall people get slightly less religious and less likely to go to church as they get older.

The reason why churches are full (well actually not full, but you get my point) of elderly people isn't because these people have started going to church later in life. Nope they were always church goers. But the point is that today's 70 year olds were far more religious and more likely to go to church when they were 30 back in 1980 that today's 30 year olds. That's why the demographic of churchgoers is elderly, not because people change in religiosity as they get older. And that is why you can be confident that the decline will continue for decades as the most religious cohort (the elderly) die and are replaced by the least religious cohort (the youngest). For the decline to stop you'd need the current twenty-somethings to suddenly become as religious as their grandparents - and that just isn't going to happen.

This is only tangentially related but I can't resist telling this story.

The demographic for Brexit voters in 2016 skewed towards older people. There's often an assumption that you get more insular as you get older. However, in 1975 when the last European referendum, the demographic for leaving the Common Market skewed younger. Why? Well the simple answer is that it's the same people. There's no overall transformation of views as you get older.

[ProfessorDavey]

This is only tangentially related but I can't resist telling this story.

The demographic for Brexit voters in 2016 skewed towards older people. There's often an assumption that you get more insular as you get older. However, in 1975 when the last European referendum, the demographic for leaving the Common Market skewed younger. Why? Well the simple answer is that it's the same people. There's no overall transformation of views as you get older.

Spot on.

It is a common misconception that the oldest were always the least in favour of the Common Market/EU, when actually it was the youngest who were least in favour in 1975 (probably because they had no experience of the war and really poor european relationships) - and of course that most sceptical cohort in 1975 became the most sceptical cohort in 2016.

Similarly people often think people get more religious as they get older - certainly in the UK there is no evidence for this whatsoever.

[Gordon]

Some views from letters in The Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/02/i-couldnt-pretend-any-more-readers-on-why-they-left-the-christian-faith

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I think you are misinterpreting what I said.

6% is broadly the number of people who attend church weekly. This is a little out of date so numbers now are probably a little lower than that now and between the two largest denominations, CofE and RCC weekly church attendance is roughly 1.5M, which represents about 2.5% of the population.

But attendance is dropping at a similar rate to 'census' christian affiliation - see data in previous post on RCC and you get similar declines for most other denominations (except some very small ones that impact little on overall attendance).

So what will happen over the next couple of decades - well christianity won't vanish, but every aspect of christian religiosity (census affiliation, belief/importance of christianity, attendance) will continue to decline. Likely this will be at similar rates to what we have seen over the past 20 years. So I'd anticipate (and you can be pretty confident on this if you understand why numbers are declining) that by say 2040 we'd have about 30% of the population saying they are census christians, with perhaps just 3% regularly attending church.

These numbers are, of course, not zero but we will probably end up with a situation where worshiping christians aren't that disimilar in numbers to worshiping muslims. But in both cases these will be a tiny minority, with the vast majority having no meaningful engagement with any religion.

what do you mean by meaningful engagement?
You say worshipping Moslems will remain a tiny minority, but a reading of the pew research group shows that Moslems and Hindus tend not to switch. The Pew also think that Islam’s numbers will expand as will other religions due to Birthrate where as the birthrate for Christians is falling.

Evangelical Christianity grows of course, not by the rate people are born but by the rate people are born again and as I understand it that has been a growth area but.not only is it keen on the second birth....JeremyP talked about people not changing there minds. But Christianity is all about metanoia
Or as it is rendered repentance or changing one’s mind which brings us to your dark forecast about the lack of meaningful engagement.....what is going to stop it?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Some views from letters in The Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/02/i-couldnt-pretend-any-more-readers-on-why-they-left-the-christian-faith

To quote Professor Davey, anecdotes aren’t worth a bean.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Some views from letters in The Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/02/i-couldnt-pretend-any-more-readers-on-why-they-left-the-christian-faith

I wouldn’t want to meet James,44, from Birmingham in a dark alley.

[ProfessorDavey]

what do you mean by meaningful engagement?

Being a member. Attending worship or other religious activities run by that religious organisation on a regular basis. Just like meaningful engagement with any other organisation.

You say worshipping Moslems will remain a tiny minority, but a reading of the pew research group shows that Moslems and Hindus tend not to switch.

Not to other religions, but then that is pretty uncommon for people brought up in any religion. But to non-religion, well that is another matter. While we may not yet be in that territory there is no reason to suppose that forth, fifth etc generation muslims will adopt a similar pattern of religious transmission over generations as christians (and indeed jews) currently do. That is that about half of the children brought up in that religion will end up non religious as adults. Pew research isn't good at factoring this into their modelling. Pew significantly over estimated the numbers of muslims in the UK - they predicted numbers would have increased to 6.3% by 2016 (mid way through the census) but that was only attained by 2021.

The Pew also think that Islam’s numbers will expand as will other religions due to Birthrate where as the birthrate for Christians is falling.

Birth rate is, of course, completely irrelevant if half of your kids end up non religious. You simply add one adult member of your religion traded off against one non religious adult. And as immigrant communities become more assimilated over generation their birth rates will fall too. Just look at jewish and catholic migrant communities.

The notion that migrant communities will pass on their religion to all their offspring with none becoming religious is naive non-sense (and actually rather patronising). Likewise the notion that communities with high birth rates will retain high birth rates generation after generation.

Evangelical Christianity grows of course,

Does it - or does it just decline at a slower rate.

... not by the rate people are born but by the rate people are born again...

Which is massively outnumbered by those born into religion but whose 'born again' moment is to recognise that they don't believe it and become non-religious. See the examples in Gordon's link - there are many, many more people like that than born again christians.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Being a member. Attending worship or other religious activities run by that religious organisation on a regular basis. Just like meaningful engagement with any other organisation.

I don’t think that is necessarily how people interact with organisations now or in the future

Not to other religions, but then that is pretty uncommon for people brought up in any religion. But to non-religion, well that is another matter. While we may not yet be in that territory there is no reason to suppose that forth, fifth etc generation muslims will adopt a similar pattern of religious transmission over generations as christians (and indeed jews) currently do.

Why should they?

That is that about half of the children brought up in that religion will end up non religious as adults. Pew research isn't good at factoring this into their modelling.

or you are wrong in predicting the switch by Moslems to non religion

Pew significantly over estimated the numbers of muslims in the UK - they predicted numbers would have increased to 6.3% by 2016 (mid way through the census) but that was only attained by 2021.

Are you now then repudiating Pew researches findings?

Birth rate is, of course, completely irrelevant if half of your kids end up non religious. You simply add one adult member of your religion traded off against one non religious adult. And as immigrant communities become more assimilated over generation their birth rates will fall too. Just look at jewish and catholic migrant communities.

where is your evidence that half of Moslem children become non religious?

The notion that migrant communities will pass on their religion to all their offspring with none becoming religious is naive non-sense (and actually rather patronising). Likewise the notion that communities with high birth rates will retain high birth rates generation after generation.
Does it - or does it just decline at a slower rate.
Which is massively outnumbered by those born into religion but whose 'born again' moment is to recognise that they don't believe it and become non-religious. See the examples in Gordon's link - there are many, many more people like that than born again christians.

Anecdotal evidence...nice gaslight At this point as an evangelical twice born I and my ilk have a dilemma should I take the realisation of others that they didn’t after all believe it as a failure or should I welcome their honesty and their dispensing with nominality? I think it must be the latter.

Here then is the pew research group on the changing face of global religion
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2017/04/05/the-changing-global-religious-landscape/

[ProfessorDavey]

I don’t think that is necessarily how people interact with organisations now or in the future

Really - I note you've removed membership of that organisation. I think this along with engagement in activities is exactly how people interact with organisations now and likely in the future too. I didn't say physical attendance - of course attending events may be more likely to be virtual these days, but that is still attending an activity.

[ProfessorDavey]

Why should they?

Why shouldn't they? To suggest that third, fourth, fifth generation UK muslims will follow a completely different trajectory to third, fourth, fifth generation UK catholics, jews, hindus etc seems to be arguing for exceptionalism. If you want to make that claim the onus is on you to provide the evidence.

[Gordon]

To quote Professor Davey, anecdotes aren’t worth a bean.

Then remember that next time you read the stories in the NT.

[ProfessorDavey]

where is your evidence that half of Moslem children become non religious?

Actually I didn't claim that hence:

'But to non-religion, well that is another matter. While we may not yet be in that territory there is no reason to suppose that forth, fifth etc generation muslims will adopt a similar pattern of religious transmission over generations as christians (and indeed jews) currently do.'

Actually the research I have seen suggests that intergenerational transmission of religion in UK muslims is about 75%, so somewhat higher than for christians, although I suspect this will decline over generations.

However the point isn't the absolute level of intergenerational transmission, but the gap between transmission of religion and transmission of non-religion, which we know to be pretty close to 100%. So it might take a little longer but you still end up with more non-religious offspring than religious from a starting point that is 100% religious.

So let's take a model example - two muslim parents, let's add the following assumptions:

1. Each has four children
2. Intergenerational transmission of islam is 75%, with the remainder becoming non-religious (as we know intergenerational conversion from one religion to another is tiny)
3. Intergenerational transmission of non-religion is 100% (I know it isn't quite 100%, probably 97% but this makes the maths simpler)

Starting generation - 2 people, 2 muslims - 100% muslim
First generation offspring - 4 people, 3 muslims, 1 non-religious - 75% muslim, 25% non religious
Second generation offspring - 16 people, 9 muslims, 7 non-religious - 56% muslim, 44% non religious
Third generation offspring - 64 people, 27 muslims, 37 non-religious - 42% muslim, 58% non religious

So by the third generation there are more non religious offspring than muslims.

[ProfessorDavey]

The Pew also think that Islam’s numbers will expand as will other religions due to Birthrate where as the birthrate for Christians is falling.

But if this is driven by birthrate you'd expect an exponential increase in the number of muslims in the UK  - but that isn't what we have since. The proportional increase in muslims from the 2011 to 2021 census (about 40%) is about half the increase from 2001 to 2011 (about 80%). So the increase in the number of muslims is slowing down, rather than increasing as you'd expect for exponential growth.

And that is despite continuing significant immigration from countries with major muslim populations.

This is exactly what you'd expect from the scenarios I've given where intergenerational transmission of islam isn't as high as intergeneration transmission of non-religion.

What is your explanation Vlad for the decline in the rate of increase in muslims in 2011-21 compared to 2001-11.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Then remember that next time you read the stories in the NT.

History doesn't require the same event to occur a statistically significant of times and where science regards repeatability as paramount, history only needs one Napoleon.

My quoting came about as Davey referred me to anecdotes as a proof of principle only a few posts after saying anecdotes weren't worth a bean.
I don't know why you aren't on to him for the cold blooded murder of statistics etc.

[Alan Burns]

In this three minute video, Calvin Robinson offers a simple reason for the decline of Christianity in England and Wales - together with a solution:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xA_mH6N5-0

[ProfessorDavey]

In this three minute video, Calvin Robinson offers a simple reason for the decline of Christianity in England and Wales - together with a solution:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xA_mH6N5-0

Blimey - how many things can one person get so hopelessly wrong in such a short space of time.

[Nearly Sane]

In this three minute video, Calvin Robinson offers a simple reason for the decline of Christianity in England and Wales - together with a solution:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xA_mH6N5-0

Take it you were cheering along with this, Alan?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-africa-65034513

[Outrider]

In this three minute video, Calvin Robinson offers a simple reason for the decline of Christianity in England and Wales - together with a solution:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xA_mH6N5-0

He seems to think the faithful are out there, pushed away by a church seeking modernity, when the demographics make it clear that the faithful are not out there any more, they're dying of old age and not being replaced. The church isn't running away from the faithful, it's trying to meet a disinterested faithful half-way and is failing to excite anyone with its message.

O.

[Gordon]

In this three minute video, Calvin Robinson offers a simple reason for the decline of Christianity in England and Wales - together with a solution:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xA_mH6N5-0

I suspect there is a simpler reason for this decline - more people are now realising that Christianity is, and always was,  superstititious nonsense.

[ProfessorDavey]

I suspect there is a simpler reason for this decline - more people are now realising that Christianity is, and always was,  superstititious nonsense.

The reason is generational replacement:

Child brought up in religious household where both parents are religious - approx. 50:50 chance of being religious/non-religious as an adult.
Child brought up in a household with on religious parent and one non-religious parents - approx. 25:75 chance of being religious/non-religious as an adult.
Child brought up in a non religious household where neither parent is religious - approx. 3:97 chance of being religious/non-religious as an adult.

Immigration has moderated the decline a little - it would be worse without immigration. However migration that bolsters the numbers of the religious involves moving a religious person from one place in the world to another place. It is a zero sum game in terms of overall religiosity unlike generational replacement.