Author Topic: Sturgeon to resign as FM  (Read 28594 times)

Aruntraveller

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10999
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #250 on: February 26, 2023, 12:04:38 PM »
Article in the Guardian illustrating the toxic mix of politics, religion and "wokeness" that has led to the current stramash (as our friends north of the border would put it):

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/26/kate-forbes-politicians-have-right-to-strong-religious-views-but-not-shielded-from-scrutiny
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Nearly Sane

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 63838
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #251 on: February 27, 2023, 06:55:57 AM »
Even in the Marianas Trench that is our political.depths, this from Yousaf plumbs new deprhs of stupidity.

https://news.sky.com/story/humza-yousafs-absence-from-key-vote-on-gay-marriage-being-dragged-up-for-political-reasons-snp-leadership-candidate-says-12820533

jeremyp

  • Admin Support
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 32275
  • Blurb
    • Sincere Flattery: A blog about computing
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #252 on: February 28, 2023, 01:57:48 PM »
Even in the Marianas Trench that is our political.depths, this from Yousaf plumbs new deprhs of stupidity.

https://news.sky.com/story/humza-yousafs-absence-from-key-vote-on-gay-marriage-being-dragged-up-for-political-reasons-snp-leadership-candidate-says-12820533

You know how underhand it is when politicians vying for political leadership decide to bring politics into the political debate.
This post and all of JeremyP's posts words certified 100% divinely inspired* -- signed God.
*Platinum infallibility package, terms and conditions may apply

Nearly Sane

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 63838
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #253 on: February 28, 2023, 02:23:09 PM »
You know how underhand it is when politicians vying for political leadership decide to bring politics into the political debate.
Absolute bastards.

More of Yousaf being an idiot.

https://archive.vn/PJSeX

ProfessorDavey

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17511
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #254 on: February 28, 2023, 08:37:42 PM »
Half MSPs and a third of MPs have backed a candidate:

SNP Leadership Election Endorsements, state of play at 8pm on 28th of February. 3 candidates, meaning 106 endorsements available.

Candidate: Backers (MSPs/MPs)

Yousaf: 34 (22/12)
Forbes: 9 (7/2)
Regan: 1 (0/1)
None Yet: 57 (28/29)
None: 5 (4/1)

https://ballotbox.scot/scottish-parliament/snp-leadership-election-2023

History tells us that it is very difficult for a leader if they do not have the backing of their parliamentary colleagues. Are we going to end up with another scenario where members want one person and parliamentarians another.

Nearly Sane

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 63838

Nearly Sane

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 63838
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #256 on: March 03, 2023, 04:59:51 PM »
First poll of the SNP members:


'First poll of SNP members from @Savanta_UK puts @HumzaYousaf out in front.
Yousaf 31% Forbes 25% Regan 11% Don't know 32%
Excluding Don't know: Yousaf 46%; Forbes 37% Regan 17%
Members that do not know are more likely to be female (44% vs 22% male)'

Nearly Sane

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 63838
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #257 on: March 05, 2023, 09:16:23 AM »
At least some people in the SNP wondering why they should select their most unpopular candidate amongst the voters.


https://archive.is/2023.03.04-201252/https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/senior-snp-figures-write-off-humza-yousaf-as-new-leader-b3k8b0wtt

Nearly Sane

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 63838
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #258 on: March 05, 2023, 06:16:23 PM »
First picture from The Herald is Kate Forbes, Bible awkwardly in hand. Second picture why it's  awkward

Nearly Sane

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 63838

ProfessorDavey

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17511
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #260 on: March 08, 2023, 05:43:45 PM »
Very funny

https://twitter.com/shiny02/status/1633514788071383055?t=5h_RkmQkz0Y3H-bGbMsPlQ&s=19
Is that guy's beard actually Sturgeon's hair but ... like ... on his chin.

There was a debate the other night - saw about 20 secs of it on the news. Anyone actually watch it all? Any thoughts. New editorial line seemed to be that they all decided that the others were incompetent and by inference that the government they'd all served in (currently or recently) was effectively incompetent - or in Forbes (I think) words 'mediocre'.

ProfessorDavey

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17511
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #261 on: March 08, 2023, 05:49:25 PM »
Doesn't look as if the public are too enamoured by the prospect of any of them, given the direction the polls are going for the SNP:

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1633515605486895104?t=ucCpC_htpcdsolYHu5VKhA&s=19

SNP on 29% (-11% compared to 2021 election) now just 3% ahead of Labour, on 26% (+8%) in poll on regional list.

Nearly Sane

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 63838
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #262 on: March 08, 2023, 05:51:59 PM »
Is that guy's beard actually Sturgeon's hair but ... like ... on his chin.

There was a debate the other night - saw about 20 secs of it on the news. Anyone actually watch it all? Any thoughts. New editorial line seemed to be that they all decided that the others were incompetent and by inference that the government they'd all served in (currently or recently) was effectively incompetent - or in Forbes (I think) words 'mediocre'.
Nope. Forbes decided Yousaf was incompetent.

Nearly Sane

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 63838
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #263 on: March 08, 2023, 06:00:22 PM »
Doesn't look as if the public are too enamoured by the prospect of any of them, given the direction the polls are going for the SNP:

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1633515605486895104?t=ucCpC_htpcdsolYHu5VKhA&s=19

SNP on 29% (-11% compared to 2021 election) now just 3% ahead of Labour, on 26% (+8%) in poll on regional list.
  Just to cover this is the constituency change



Nearly Sane

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 63838
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #264 on: March 08, 2023, 06:03:03 PM »
And Westminster

Nearly Sane

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 63838
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #265 on: March 08, 2023, 06:04:32 PM »
Note all of the above are against 2019 so doesn't really cover the effect of the resignation or the candidates clearly

ProfessorDavey

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17511
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #266 on: March 08, 2023, 06:06:12 PM »
  Just to cover this is the constituency change
Which was also in the link I provided.

The constituency swing SNP to Labour is slightly less bad (-8% and +7%) than the swing for the regional list (-11% and +8%), but still a major swing away from the SNP nonetheless.

Nearly Sane

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 63838
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #267 on: March 08, 2023, 06:29:38 PM »
And interesting on the candidates

ProfessorDavey

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17511
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #268 on: March 08, 2023, 08:16:48 PM »
And Westminster
Similar level of swing SNP to Labour

So my reading is that we have:

8% swing for both Westminster and Holyrood constituency
9.5% swing for Holyrood regional list

ProfessorDavey

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17511
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #269 on: March 08, 2023, 08:26:45 PM »
And interesting on the candidates
As you've pointed out previously the people that will actually make the decision, SNP members, haven't been polled. I'd suspect they'd be more like SNP voters than all voters however.

Looking at the polling I think the SNP may be stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Forbes having rather greater support in the public at large (but don't forget that will include a bunch of people who will never vote SNP regardless of who is leader). But critically she does not have the support of her parliamentary colleagues (at both Holyrood and Westminster) and history suggests that it is very hard for someone to lead a party (let alone govern) without having their parliamentary colleagues behind them.

Go for Yousaf and have someone who will likely command support in the parliamentary party, but may not be seen as the best candidate more widely.

Actually I think the most telling bit of data are the 'don't knows' - that 39% of SNP voters don't have enough confidence in any of the candidates to actually express an opinion should be especially worrying for the SNP.

Nearly Sane

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 63838
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #270 on: March 08, 2023, 08:55:34 PM »
....
Actually I think the most telling bit of data are the 'don't knows' - that 39% of SNP voters don't have enough confidence in any of the candidates to actually express an opinion should be especially worrying for the SNP.

Don't disagree but not sure what were equivalent figures at similar times, and even that is difficult to define, for Labour, Tory and Lib Dems leadership elections.

ProfessorDavey

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17511
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #271 on: March 09, 2023, 09:18:49 AM »
Half MSPs and a third of MPs have backed a candidate:

SNP Leadership Election Endorsements, state of play at 8pm on 28th of February. 3 candidates, meaning 106 endorsements available.

Candidate: Backers (MSPs/MPs)

Yousaf: 34 (22/12)
Forbes: 9 (7/2)
Regan: 1 (0/1)
None Yet: 57 (28/29)
None: 5 (4/1)

https://ballotbox.scot/scottish-parliament/snp-leadership-election-2023

History tells us that it is very difficult for a leader if they do not have the backing of their parliamentary colleagues. Are we going to end up with another scenario where members want one person and parliamentarians another.
Update on backing from parliamentary colleagues:

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1633574730589515779

Candidate: Backers (MSPs/MPs)

Yousaf: 46 (30/16)
Forbes: 12 (10/2)
Regan: 1 (0/1)
None Yet: 43 (17/26)
None: 4 (4/0)

Poor old Regan - her parliamentary colleagues really do think she is rubbish. Not a single supporter from her Holyrood colleagues, who presumably are those that know her best and work most closely with her.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2023, 01:43:28 PM by ProfessorDavey »

Nearly Sane

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 63838
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #272 on: March 09, 2023, 09:33:55 AM »
Update on backing from parliamentary colleagues:

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1633574730589515779

Candidate: Backers (MSPs/MPs)

Yousaf: 46 (30/16)
Forbes: 12 (10/2)
Regan: 1 (0/1)
None Yet: 43 (17/26)
None: 4 (4/0)

Poor old Regan - her parliamentary colleagues really do think she is rubbish. Not a single supporter from her Holyrood colleagues, who presumably are those that know her best and work most closely with her.

Or they just think she has no chance of winning and so are thinking about their next jobs.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2023, 09:45:03 AM by Nearly Sane »

ProfessorDavey

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17511
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #273 on: March 09, 2023, 10:00:07 AM »
Or they just think she has no chance of winning and so are thinking about their next jobs.
And why would they think she has no chance of winning other than on the basis of her abilities?

ProfessorDavey

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17511
Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #274 on: March 09, 2023, 10:01:33 AM »
Or they just think she has no chance of winning and so are thinking about their next jobs.
But as one wag put it somewhere else:

There are three candidates, one wants to be leader of the SNP, one wants to be leader of Alba and the third wants to be leader of the DUP!