Author Topic: Sturgeon to resign as FM  (Read 28622 times)

Nearly Sane

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #350 on: March 16, 2023, 03:26:46 PM »

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #351 on: March 16, 2023, 03:51:07 PM »
Well they've released the membership numbers

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/10371830/snp-membership-figures-leadership-race/
So is the reluctance because they are embarrassed about member numbers? Perhaps, which would again be stupid as ultimately the number of votes would need to be revealed which would have to indicate turnout so you'd ultimately know overall number of ballots.

In fairness (not sure why I'm being fair) I think getting accurate member numbers can be challenging at the best of times (see the tories), but it is even more difficult when numbers are changing rapidly, particularly declining. Most parties will have a category of 'lapsed' members, who are in arrears in terms of paying their membership fees but in a kind go 'grace' period. You will need to give these people the opportunity to rectify those arrears before necessarily declaring that they are no longer members and therefore unable to vote. It wouldn't be very fair to dump someone off a ballot because they have missed their payment date by a few days, but perfectly fair to dump someone who has genuine left the party. So it is perfectly possible, and reasonable, that a lot of time and effort has been needed to tidy up the members list to get rid of those who have genuinely left, given those a little in arrears the opportunity to pay up etc. But again that would have been easier if the process wasn't so rushed - I doubt anyone would have blinked an eyelid if the SNP hadn't release their final members list for the purposes of the vote yet if the ballot wasn't opening until May.

Another bonkers aspect about the process - the SNP must have recognised that their membership was dropping. Other parties have realised that a great way to boost membership (and coffers) is to give individuals the opportunity to become members in order to allow them to vote in the election. So the SNP seem to have missed a trick here no both member numbers and finances.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2023, 05:32:24 PM by ProfessorDavey »

Nearly Sane

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #352 on: March 17, 2023, 09:15:04 AM »
The SNP leadership campaign shows one of the eternal verities.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #353 on: March 17, 2023, 07:05:44 PM »

Nearly Sane

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Nearly Sane

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #355 on: March 18, 2023, 09:53:18 AM »
New truck of popcorn needed


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Nearly Sane

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Gordon

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #357 on: March 18, 2023, 12:10:31 PM »
And another one bites the dust - Murrell resigns with immediate effect.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65000606

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #358 on: March 18, 2023, 04:54:02 PM »
Struggling to see how any of the candidates would be able to put the party back together after all this.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #359 on: March 18, 2023, 05:39:31 PM »
Struggling to see how any of the candidates would be able to put the party back together after all this.

Their only saving grace is the general ineptitude of the opposition

Nearly Sane

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« Last Edit: March 18, 2023, 08:54:42 PM by Nearly Sane »

Nearly Sane

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #361 on: March 19, 2023, 10:19:06 AM »

Nearly Sane

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #362 on: March 19, 2023, 10:58:20 AM »
Shauny Boy's take on the 3 candidates campaigns

Forbes
https://youtu.be/fMU91i7xQHo

Regan
https://youtu.be/3GZ02zXtE7c

Yousaf
https://youtu.be/AzW8a41YkAI


ProfessorDavey

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #363 on: March 19, 2023, 10:58:34 AM »
Their only saving grace is the general ineptitude of the opposition
Seems as if the most effective opposition to the SNP is ... err ... other parts of the SNP.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #364 on: March 19, 2023, 11:04:05 AM »
What's all this about a missing £600k that I'm reading about on the sites - anything definitive on this or is it just claim and speculation.

And I guess if you assumed you had 30,000 more members than you actually had and in accounting terms assumed their membership fees (say average £20) were an unpaid debt then you may well presume £600k more income than you actually had.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #365 on: March 19, 2023, 11:09:05 AM »
Seems as if the most effective opposition to the SNP is ... err ... other parts of the SNP.
And has been for some time

Nearly Sane

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #366 on: March 19, 2023, 11:14:40 AM »
What's all this about a missing £600k that I'm reading about on the sites - anything definitive on this or is it just claim and speculation.

And I guess if you assumed you had 30,000 more members than you actually had and in accounting terms assumed their membership fees (say average £20) were an unpaid debt then you may well presume £600k more income than you actually had.

It's been going on for somewhat longer than that, and isn't directly to do with the membership numbers, nor with the £107k loan from Murrell to the SNP that Sturgeon didn't know about.

This is a reasonable primer from last year.

https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/files-snps-missing-600k-finally-28934498

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #367 on: March 19, 2023, 11:33:37 AM »
It's been going on for somewhat longer than that, and isn't directly to do with the membership numbers, nor with the £107k loan from Murrell to the SNP that Sturgeon didn't know about.

This is a reasonable primer from last year.

https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/files-snps-missing-600k-finally-28934498
I note that the Express always write "missing" rather than missing, which implies that this is speculation and if they claimed it as fact they'd get the hell sued out of them.

The other thing I've taken from the article is that it isn't clear whether the money has vanished (which would be the implication of "missing' or certainly missing), or has been spent on purposes that aren't related to the purpose for which the funds were raised - specifically "on a campaign for a second referendum". I guess the challenge here would be to determine whether monies raised in such a manner were 'restricted' or 'unrestricted' in terms of their use and if 'restricted' the limits for their use. I would image that the SNP, as a party that supports independence which can only be achieved through a referendum could claim that any campaigning activity is, at least indirectly, aimed at achieving a second referendum. Whether that would be deemed legitimate would be, I guess, for the courts to decide.

But coming back to the original question - is this money literally missing, in other words no-one knows what has happened to it, or is there an audit trail where it was received and has been spent, but arguably not on the purposes for which it was raised.

I think the bigger picture here is that a little over a decade ago the SNP was a small campaigning operation which probably has processes and systems in place suitable for an organisation with a membership of about 10,000. Then suddenly it increases in size 10 fold and failed to put in place processes and systems that work for a much larger organisation and continued to operate in a cottage industry manner as if it remained a 10,000 member organisation.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #368 on: March 19, 2023, 11:56:47 AM »
I note that the Express always write "missing" rather than missing, which implies that this is speculation and if they claimed it as fact they'd get the hell sued out of them.

The other thing I've taken from the article is that it isn't clear whether the money has vanished (which would be the implication of "missing' or certainly missing), or has been spent on purposes that aren't related to the purpose for which the funds were raised - specifically "on a campaign for a second referendum". I guess the challenge here would be to determine whether monies raised in such a manner were 'restricted' or 'unrestricted' in terms of their use and if 'restricted' the limits for their use. I would image that the SNP, as a party that supports independence which can only be achieved through a referendum could claim that any campaigning activity is, at least indirectly, aimed at achieving a second referendum. Whether that would be deemed legitimate would be, I guess, for the courts to decide.

But coming back to the original question - is this money literally missing, in other words no-one knows what has happened to it, or is there an audit trail where it was received and has been spent, but arguably not on the purposes for which it was raised.

I think the bigger picture here is that a little over a decade ago the SNP was a small campaigning operation which probably has processes and systems in place suitable for an organisation with a membership of about 10,000. Then suddenly it increases in size 10 fold and failed to put in place processes and systems that work for a much larger organisation and continued to operate in a cottage industry manner as if it remained a 10,000 member organisation.
Not having adequate pricedures in place doesn't mean there isn't a cover up as well. I'd add that having a political party with the CEO and leader married to each other is likely going to cause issues. I'd extend the 'little over a decade ago' a bit further since they have been in govt for 16 years.

As to what's actually happened to the money, who knows? Part of the problem has the finances of the SNP have mysterious for some time, including resignations from the finance commitee nearly 2 years ago over this.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-57299030




Nearly Sane

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Nearly Sane

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #370 on: March 19, 2023, 07:01:34 PM »
The story so far...


From a biased source (anti SNP) but.they don't have to do much


https://www.notesonnationalism.com/p/previously-on-the-snp

jeremyp

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #371 on: March 20, 2023, 07:34:13 AM »
Err ... how about the Tory election in the summer - that took months. And Boris really was a lame duck.
Do you understand the meaning of the word “most”?
Quote
Actually I don't think Sturgeon is a lame duck - following her resignation she retained high levels of support. Indeed in the most recent polling the electorate as a whole and specifically SNP voters all thought that Sturgeon would make a better FM than any of the three candidates ... by a country mile.
That’s not what lame duck means.  She can’t really do anything except in a caretaker capacity because she is leaving.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #372 on: March 20, 2023, 08:37:31 AM »
Do you understand the meaning of the word “most”?
Did you miss my other examples - all of which involved parties electing a new leader in power.

For obvious reasons there tend to be more leadership elections for parties in opposition than in power - simply because there may be many parties in opposition, but usually just one in power. So let's turn this around lightly - from what I can see there are no examples of a party (whether in opposition or in power) attempting an election timetable of just 6 weeks where the membership are give a vote as part of the process.

Sometimes the timetable gets truncated as only one person achieves the threshold for nomination (e.g. Brown in 2007, May in 2016, Sunak in 2022 part 2), but even then had there been more than one nominee the timetable would have been longer than the current SNP election.

So over to you - provide me with a single example in UK politics where a party has attempted a leadership election involving a membership vote in 6 weeks from the date when the incumbent announced their plan to resign from office.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #373 on: March 20, 2023, 08:44:42 AM »
That’s not what lame duck means.  She can’t really do anything except in a caretaker capacity because she is leaving.
Actually the strict definition of a lame duck is a person who remains in office after their successor has been elected - e.g. in US presidential election from the election in Nov until the Jan inauguration of the new president.

But I get that in a more general sense it is a person who has no authority any more. But this is where I disagree - Sturgeon having announced that she is to resign has no bearing constitutionally on what she can and cannot do as FM. Typically the lame duck element comes not from the constitution but from the fact that in most cases a resignation is due to the person having lost the confidence of their own elected parliamentarians and often by association, the public. This was the case for Boris and May - neither could get anything done because their MPs were mutinying.

That isn't the case for Sturgeon - even following her announcement she retained high levels of support in the public (who prefer her to any of the candidates by miles) and she seems to have very strong support amongst the majority of her parliamentary colleagues who I think would much prefer her to have decided to continue. So in those circumstances Sturgeon might choose not to push forward new legislation, but constitutionally she could and were she to decide to do so I don't think she'd have particular problems getting her parliamentary colleagues on board too.

So in that more general respect she's not a particularly lame duck, and in the more accurate definition she won't become a lame duck for another week when she successor will be announced.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Sturgeon to resign as FM
« Reply #374 on: March 20, 2023, 11:24:54 AM »
Kevin McKenna fulminating


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