Sturgeon to resign as FM

[Nearly Sane]

Hmmm....

[ProfessorDavey]

I get that you are happy to accept glaring hypocrisy as ok, but I wonder that you were happy to do that on this level when Gordon Brown took over?

I never made any comment to that regard at all - merely pointed out that it is standard politics. And the same tactic has been used by the SNP, e.g. when Jack McConnell became FM and when various Tories became PM, and by the Tories, when Brown became PM and by Labour when various Tories became PM and now with a new SNP FM.

So they are basically all at it - and you can see why, the approach is to try to undermine the new PM/FM on the basis that they have no legitimate mandate.

[ProfessorDavey]

Hmmm....

What's your point?

Looks to me like Yousaf won in all three categories - MPs, MSPs and members. Sure his margin of victory was smallest with members, but we aren't in Truss/IDS/Corbyn territory where the members wanted one person and the MPs another.

[Nearly Sane]

What's your point?

Looks to me like Yousaf won in all three categories - MPs, MSPs and members. Sure his margin of victory was smallest with members, but we aren't in Truss/IDS/Corbyn territory where the members wanted one person and the MPs another.

There's a large disjunct between those groups.

[ProfessorDavey]

There's a large disjunct between those groups.

So what? He won in all three categories - surely that's the only point that really matters in terms of legitimacy - that the preference of the members aligns with the preference of the parliamentarians. The problems start when the members foist someone onto the parliamentarians that the latter don't want. But that isn't the case here.

[ProfessorDavey]

If this is correct:

https://ballotbox.scot/scottish-parliament/snp-leadership-election-2023

It demonstrates that more of Forbes' first preference voters went for Yousaf rather than Regan as second preference, and

More of Yousaf's first preference voters went for Forbes rather than Regan as second preference.

Also worth noting that while Regan second preferences split predominantly to Forbes it wasn't anything like the overwhelming 'en masse' transfer that some people predicted.

[Nearly Sane]

So what? He won in all three categories - surely that's the only point that really matters in terms of legitimacy - that the preference of the members aligns with the preference of the parliamentarians. The problems start when the members foist someone onto the parliamentarians that the latter don't want. But that isn't the case here.

Who is talking about legitimacy? A large disjunct is surely interesting politically?

[ProfessorDavey]

Who is talking about legitimacy? A large disjunct is surely interesting politically?

It only becomes significant if one or other group wants a different candidate.

Actually from here on in the people who will be most important to Yousaf will be his MSPs and they are the most supportive. Those are the people who will need to serve in his cabinet, ensure his policies get though parliament etc.

So from the perspective of Yousaf I think I'd prefer high levels of support amongst MSPs even if he won the membership by a single vote, rather than the other way around, which would mean a very substantial block of his parliamentarian not having supported him. I'd also be relieved that the people who will know him best (MSPs who work alongside him day in day out) are most supportive.

[Nearly Sane]

It only becomes significant if one or other group wants a different candidate.

Actually from here on in the people who will be most important to Yousaf will be his MSPs and they are the most supportive. Those are the people who will need to serve in his cabinet, ensure his policies get though parliament etc.

So from the perspective of Yousaf I think I'd prefer high levels of support amongst MSPs even if he won the membership by a single vote, rather than the other way around, which would mean a very substantial block of his parliamentarian not having supported him. I'd also be relieved that the people who will know him best (MSPs who work alongside him day in day out) are most supportive.

So you don't even have a glimmer of understanding of how this might be used by other parties? 

[ProfessorDavey]

So you don't even have a glimmer of understanding of how this might be used by other parties?

'Well Mr Yousaf - can you explain why you didn't win by as much a margin with the membership as you did with your MSPs?' - hardly a great attack line!

[Nearly Sane]

'Well Mr Yousaf - can you explain why you didn't win by as much a margin with the membership as you did with your MSPs?' - hardly a great attack line!

Humza, why is it that nearly half your party hate gay people?

You seem to be adrift of how politics works.

[ProfessorDavey]

Humza, why is it that nearly half your party hate gay people?

Yousaf: 'They don't and please don't insult our fantastic members - SNP members are liberal, progressive and are committed to equality. That's why they are members of a party that legislated to allow everyone to get married regardless of their sexuality. That's why they are members of a party that is committed to ensuring that transgender people are treated with the dignity and respect they deserve. And I'm humbled to say that they are the members that elected the first First Minister from an Asian heritage and the first muslim FM. I'm proud to stand alongside those members'

Now Yousaf might lack the political nouse to respond in that manner - but a comment of that nature would be a gift for him, not least on the basis of the first rule of politics - don't insult the electorate (even if it's just those members of the electorate who are SNP members).

[Nearly Sane]

Yousaf: 'They don't and please don't insult our fantastic members - SNP members are liberal, progressive and are committed to equality. That's why they are members of a party that legislated to allow everyone to get married regardless of their sexuality. That's why they are members of a party that is committed to ensuring that transgender people are treated with the dignity and respect they deserve. And I'm humbled to say that they are the members that elected the first First Minister from an Asian heritage and the first muslim FM. I'm proud to stand alongside those members'

Now Yousaf might lack the political nouse to respond in that manner - but a comment of that nature would be a gift for him, not least on the basis of the first rule of politics - don't insult the electorate (even if it's just those members of the electorate who are SNP members).

It's amazing that the Tories get elected.

[Nearly Sane]

Aye...

https://youtu.be/FZ3SC02Q-DY

[Gordon]

Love that!

[ProfessorDavey]

It's amazing that the Tories get elected.

Your point being?

[ProfessorDavey]

Any bets on how long before Regan leaves the SNP?

She's completely trashed her reputation and spent much of the campaign trashing the party she claimed she wanted to lead.

Did you see her body language at the announcement. Forbes was magnanimous in defeat, albeit was clearly finding it hard to put on a brave face. Regan - not so much - she was a bundle of fury who could barely bring herself to even give Yousaf a hand-shake in congratulation. Not a good look and potentially the final straw - can't see a way back for her.

[ProfessorDavey]

Aye...

https://youtu.be/FZ3SC02Q-DY

Very good - the whole process has been a disaster for the SNP. Probably the only outcome that holds the party together - just.

[Nearly Sane]

Any bets on how long before Regan leaves the SNP?

She's completely trashed her reputation and spent much of the campaign trashing the party she claimed she wanted to lead.

Did you see her body language at the announcement. Forbes was magnanimous in defeat, albeit was clearly finding it hard to put on a brave face. Regan - not so much - she was a bundle of fury who could barely bring herself to even give Yousaf a hand-shake in congratulation. Not a good look and potentially the final straw - can't see a way back for her.

It's a weird one. I agree with your take but if she does go to Alba then it's maybe a waste of a platform. If I were her, then I might think it would be better to get suspended from the SNP before any move.

[Nearly Sane]

Useful graphic on the talent puddle

[ProfessorDavey]

Useful graphic on the talent puddle

Does emphasise the challenges Forbes would have faced if she'd won.

There are only three people with current or former ministerial experience who supported her ... and two of those three are siblings!

As much as the SNP are in a hole, they narrowly dodged a bullet. The 'perfect storm' would have been if Yousaf won the members ballot on first preferences, but Forbes overtook him by a whisker on second preferences. That would have been an absolute nightmare scenario for the party.

[Nearly Sane]

Does emphasise the challenges Forbes would have faced if she'd won.

There are only three people with current or former ministerial experience who supported her ... and two of those three are siblings!

As much as the SNP are in a hole, they narrowly dodged a bullet. The 'perfect storm' would have been if Yousaf won the members ballot on first preferences, but Forbes overtook him by a whisker on second preferences. That would have been an absolute nightmare scenario for the party.

The Ewing thing makes me want to do some sort of Dallas mash up, including Douglas Ross watching cows. But it's interesting to remember that there is a long history here and the Ewing dynasty in the SNP predates Salmond never mind Sturgeon. It's also I think indicative of a split in the SNP between town and country, and indeed one that is true of Scotland beyond the SNP 

The ferry debacle has seemed to many central and urban Scots an invention of the media but it's about life to those on the islands.

[ProfessorDavey]

The Ewing thing makes me want to do some sort of Dallas mash up, including Douglas Ross watching cows. But it's interesting to remember that there is a long history here and the Ewing dynasty in the SNP predates Salmond never mind Sturgeon.

Not saying the Ewings aren't important in SNP heritage - of course they are. All I'm saying is that if your support amongst ministers/former ministers is one person plus a brother/sister combo, that is somewhat less impressive than three completely independent people. Remember just a few posts ago you were making not dissimilar points about the co-dependency of other related pairs of people in the SNP.

And actually the Ewings are both former ministers, so she only had the support of a single current minister.

[Nearly Sane]

Not saying the Ewings aren't important in SNP heritage - of course they are. All I'm saying is that if your support amongst ministers/former ministers is one person plus a brother/sister combo, that is somewhat less impressive than three completely independent people. Remember just a few posts ago you were making not dissimilar points about the co-dependency of other related pairs of people in the SNP.

And actually the Ewings are both former ministers, so she only had the support of a single current minister.

I think my points on co-dependency are entirely consistent.

[ProfessorDavey]

It's also I think indicative of a split in the SNP between town and country, and indeed one that is true of Scotland beyond the SNP 

The ferry debacle has seemed to many central and urban Scots an invention of the media but it's about life to those on the islands.

This is an important point - in population density terms, Scotland is far more concentrated in a single area (the central belt) than the UK is, which although London/SE dominates there are major population centres in Birmingham, Manchester, Newcastle and (of course, Glasgow).

So while I fully accept that Scotland currently rails against 'Westminster' rule - in other words, people from down south who don't understand us, there is a risk that an independent Scotland becomes even more centralised, towards the central belt population, to the exclusion of the rest of the country.

The problem is that regardless of how you carve up a country there will always be people who feel disenfranchised because another part of the country, with most of the population, necessarily dominates. And typically that will be where the parliament will be based.