US Presidential Election 2024

[Gordon]

In the bizarre world of US politics this will perhaps just encourage his supporters on the basis that it is really a political attack - and that he has been found guilty by a jury is just part of the conspiracy against him.

He seems to be a sociopathic liar with infantile tendencies - but then we had one of those for a while too.

[Aruntraveller]

..

[Nearly Sane]

In the bizarre world of US politics this will perhaps just encourage his supporters on the basis that it is really a political attack - and that he has been found guilty by a jury is just part of the conspiracy against him.

He seems to be a sociopathic liar with infantile tendencies - but then we had one of those for a while too.

Given the politicisation of the judiciary in the US, it's an inbuilt problem. That said the effect on any less tribal voters is where this may make a difference.

[Nearly Sane]

Interesting analysis of why Trump lost.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c288wpj1glyo

[Nearly Sane]

Hardly any movement in the betting odds on Trump's election, and he's still odds on.
 

[Outrider]

Hardly any movement in the betting odds on Trump's election, and he's still odds on.

Polling still seems to have Biden edging it, so far as can I see, although it's not a comfortable margin by any stretch.

O.

[Nearly Sane]

Polling still seems to have Biden edging it, so far as can I see, although it's not a comfortable margin by any stretch.

O.

The odds are about 50/50 in the parties. The current edge Trump has in terms of a bet on him personally is that it's seen as if he has a lock on the Republican nomination and there's am ongoing worry about Biden's mental fitness built in to Biden's odds so he's therefore at evens  it's extraordinary that this decision is so far not really moving Trump's odds.

[Nearly Sane]

.

[SteveH]

Hardly any movement in the betting odds on Trump's election, and he's still odds on.

In any sensible country, a conviction like this would automatically debar him from standing.

[Nearly Sane]

In any sensible country, a conviction like this would automatically debar him from standing.

Not sure if this would disqualify him from standing as an MP in the UK. It might fall under the corrupt electoral practices stuff but can't be sure off top of head.

[ProfessorDavey]

In any sensible country, a conviction like this would automatically debar him from standing.

In the topsy turvy world of the US constitution being convicted (even if jailed) would not bar him from standing, but does bar him from voting - so he cannot vote for himself, but is able to stand!

[Aruntraveller]

In the topsy turvy world of the US constitution being convicted (even if jailed) would not bar him from standing, but does bar him from voting - so he cannot vote for himself, but is able to stand!

I thought he could vote as Florida where he claims residency has rules that allows the convicted to vote. I may have got this wrong as I have read so many different predictions as to what the effect of conviction may be!

[Outrider]

I thought he could vote as Florida where he claims residency has rules that allows the convicted to vote. I may have got this wrong as I have read so many different predictions as to what the effect of conviction may be!

I think the Florida entitlement to vote is after you've served your sentence and paid off any fines and compensation. That said, I don't know if a state-level conviction in New York would be relevant, or if it would need to be a Floridian or Federal conviction to disqualify him in the first instance.

O.

[Aruntraveller]

I think the Florida entitlement to vote is after you've served your sentence and paid off any fines and compensation. That said, I don't know if a state-level conviction in New York would be relevant, or if it would need to be a Floridian or Federal conviction to disqualify him in the first instance.

O.

Found this which clarifies the situation (or not):

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/31/donald-trump-convicted-felon-vote

[Nearly Sane]

.

[ad_orientem]

.

🤣

[ad_orientem]

MAGA: Jail Clinton, Obama etc

Also MAGA: Trump is more persecuted than Jesus. Election interference. Politically motivated. Immunity!

[ad_orientem]

Definitely not a cult!🤣

https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1796290634124550425?s=19

[Nearly Sane]

Bets still going mainly on Trump

https://www.oddschecker.com/insight/politics/20240531-2024-presidential-election-odds-trump-backed-in-66pp-of-bets-since-conviction

[Nearly Sane]

Interesting set of interviews with voters on the effect of the decision in the case. While I think RF Kennedy Jnr is mad, he must surely benefit.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce5511j7rylo

[Nearly Sane]

Polling still seems to have Biden edging it, so far as can I see, although it's not a comfortable margin by any stretch.

O.

Averaging of polls has Trump ahead


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

[SteveH]

Averaging of polls has Trump ahead


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

Unbefuckinglievable.

[Nearly Sane]

Unbefuckinglievable.

I suspect that if it wasn't for RFK Jr's candidacy it would be a clearer majority for Trump.

[Nearly Sane]

"Attack Trump verdict or be exiled - a new test for Republicans" - I fear, looking at this, what happens after any result in November.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ck77xpkr0x8o

[Aruntraveller]

...