Author Topic: US Presidential Election 2024 (Read 35518 times)

Maeght · « **Reply #350 on:** July 21, 2024, 10:18:56 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on July 21, 2024, 10:14:51 PM

Because they would have to vote Harris, and why is that a better choice for many of them.

I would think most Democrat voters would prefer almost anyone to Trump - but then I don't know any Democrat voters personally.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #351 on:** July 21, 2024, 10:23:06 PM »

Quote from: Maeght on July 21, 2024, 10:18:56 PM

I would think most Democrat voters would prefer almost anyone to Trump - but then I don't know any Democrat voters personally.

I think they all would but they are not more than 50% of the US electorate. It's the undecided you need to win and leaving aside independents, the offer is a president that the Dems have just decided is incompetent to be replaced by a VP that has been useless with a man that just got shot and said let's fight.

Maeght · « **Reply #352 on:** July 21, 2024, 10:25:42 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on July 21, 2024, 10:23:06 PM

I think they all would but they are not more than 50% of the US electorate. It's the undecided you need to win and leaving aside independents, the offer is a president that the Dems have just decided is incompetent to be replaced by a VP that has been useless with a man that just got shot and said let's fight.

Yes, but the point being made was about the 40% of Democrats not being keen on Harris wasn't it?

Guess the point is that if she doesn't appeal to 40% of Democrats she won't appeal to the undecided % of the population. Fair enough if so.

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #353 on:** July 22, 2024, 08:36:16 AM »

Quote from: Maeght on July 21, 2024, 10:25:42 PM

Yes, but the point being made was about the 40% of Democrats not being keen on Harris wasn't it?

Guess the point is that if she doesn't appeal to 40% of Democrats she won't appeal to the undecided % of the population. Fair enough if so.

Polling is very tricky when you have a certaintly on one side - in this case Trump as republican candidate, but a serious of layered hypotheticals on the other - will Biden stand (obviously that has now been resolved), if he doesn't stand who from the Dem side might stand etc etc.

So you may get Dems who, in that hypothetical scenario, may seem luke warm about Harris because they'd prefer Biden or because if not Biden then they'd want someone other than Harris. But once those hypotheticals are resolved - in this case if Harris became the candidate, then they may comfortably prefer Harris to Trump. So it can be really quite difficult to get an accurate picture of opinion until there is the same level of certainty on both sides.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #354 on:** July 22, 2024, 10:12:32 AM »

Pete Buttigieg seems to be the favourite to be VP nominee at moment.

Aruntraveller · « **Reply #355 on:** July 22, 2024, 10:24:59 AM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on July 22, 2024, 10:12:32 AM

Pete Buttigieg seems to be the favourite to be VP nominee at moment.

For those who don't know who Buttigieg is, this is him being interviewed on Bill Maher's show:

https://youtu.be/7XuIEg_Y4fM

Quite impressive - even if it is with a partisan interviewer.

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #356 on:** July 22, 2024, 10:35:58 AM »

I the key for the Dems will be rebounding the old and past-it narrative straight back on Trump. There are plenty of 'senior' mis-speak moments from him too. Having a ticket which looks very clearly a generaiton down will be important as will portrayal of vigour and energy.

Interesting factoid - Trump personally donated to one of Harris' election campaigns. A $5,000 donation in 2011.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #357 on:** July 22, 2024, 10:48:40 AM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on July 22, 2024, 10:35:58 AM

I the key for the Dems will be rebounding the old and past-it narrative straight back on Trump. There are plenty of 'senior' mis-speak moments from him too. Having a ticket which looks very clearly a generaiton down will be important as will portrayal of vigour and energy.

Interesting factoid - Trump personally donated to one of Harris' election campaigns. A $5,000 donation in 2011.

The Trump campaign avoided making age the big issue for that reason. Trump has an advantage when it comes to senior moments in that he's never made that much sense to begin with.

I wonder what the motivation was behind the donation.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #358 on:** July 22, 2024, 11:03:50 AM »

On the subject of donations, money returns to Democrats.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-have-biggest-fundraising-day-of-campaign-as-biden-quits-race-and-harris-vows-to-beat-trump-live/ar-BB1pckYd

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #359 on:** July 22, 2024, 11:43:30 AM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on July 22, 2024, 10:48:40 AM

The Trump campaign avoided making age the big issue for that reason. Trump has an advantage when it comes to senior moments in that he's never made that much sense to begin with.

I wonder what the motivation was behind the donation.

Some speculation on the reason for the donation here.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-previously-donated-thousands-to-kamala-harris/ar-BB1qpdmd

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #360 on:** July 22, 2024, 12:30:51 PM »

Republicans calling on Biden to step aside as President. Nor sure that's the best thing for them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnd0ek9el6ro

jeremyp · « **Reply #361 on:** July 22, 2024, 01:08:57 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on July 22, 2024, 10:48:40 AM

I wonder what the motivation was behind the donation.

Trump is only a Republican now because he thought (rightly as it turned out) he's have a better chance of getting the nomination in 2016 as a Republican.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #362 on:** July 22, 2024, 01:21:27 PM »

Quote from: jeremyp on July 22, 2024, 01:08:57 PM

Trump is only a Republican now because he thought (rightly as it turned out) he's have a better chance of getting the nomination in 2016 as a Republican.

Agreed, but all his donations would have been for something and this was after he had stopped donating to other Democrats. See here for speculation on the why

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-previously-donated-thousands-to-kamala-harris/ar-BB1qpdmd

Spud · « **Reply #363 on:** July 22, 2024, 07:10:42 PM »

Quote from: Maeght on July 21, 2024, 01:51:29 PM

Some are for sure but many are not, and they are putting up their version of events - not trying to find out what happened - in order to make money from it.

Yes, I'm trying to avoid those.

SteveH · « **Reply #364 on:** July 22, 2024, 07:16:21 PM »

Oh, the delicious irony.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/22/election-trump-harris

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #365 on:** July 22, 2024, 10:18:14 PM »

Lots of movement in the betting market for the Democrat running mate

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #366 on:** July 23, 2024, 09:42:18 AM »

Has Harris got what it takes to beat Trump? I hope so.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c035dp3glypo

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #367 on:** July 23, 2024, 09:59:07 AM »

Rundown on Harris's possible running mates.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c80ekdwk9zro

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #368 on:** July 23, 2024, 10:02:31 AM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on July 23, 2024, 09:42:18 AM

Has Harris got what it takes to beat Trump? I hope so.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c035dp3glypo

She's vulnerable on immigration (where he will consider he is strong), he's vulnerable on abortion (where she will consider she is strong).

I think it will take a little time for the notion that it will definitely be Trump v Harris to settle into the public minds. Only then will we be able to be confident on polling.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #369 on:** July 23, 2024, 10:17:11 AM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on July 23, 2024, 10:02:31 AM

She's vulnerable on immigration (where he will consider he is strong), he's vulerable on abortion (where she will consider she is strong).

I think it will take a little time for the notion that it will definitely be Trump v Harris to settle into the public minds. Only then will we be able to be confident on polling.

Agree, I think that it won't be till after the Democrat convention that things will be in any sense normal. The VP pick becomes significant as Trump's pick of Vance felt like he wasn't really that bothered in extending his appeal apart from relative youth. Harris was pretty well locked in as VP so the package was known.

jeremyp · « **Reply #370 on:** July 23, 2024, 10:44:48 AM »

Quote from: SteveH on July 22, 2024, 07:16:21 PM

Oh, the delicious irony.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/22/election-trump-harris

Well yes. I would have said that was a big issue with Tr*mp, but, of course, the Dems couldn't bring it up before because of Biden.

The reality is that they were both too old.

Stranger · « **Reply #371 on:** July 23, 2024, 11:09:02 AM »

It's almost amusing how the MAGA cult have gone into total meltdown over Biden stepping down and Harris taking over...

Trumpworld is really mad that Biden's no longer running

MAGA World Resurfaces Kamala Harris ‘Side Chick’ Slurs

MAGA Melts Down Over Mike Pence’s Very Normal Announcement on Biden

Trump stokes 'birther' conspiracy theory about Kamala Harris

‘DEI,’ ‘Colored,’ ‘Jezebel’: MAGA Attacks on Kamala Harris Are Getting Ugly

SteveH · « **Reply #372 on:** July 23, 2024, 11:13:45 AM »

"Almost"? It's fucking hilarious! Trump campaign HQ was frantically telling everyone to go easy on him over the age-and-doolallyness issues, for fear of him standing down.

Stranger · « **Reply #373 on:** July 23, 2024, 11:24:27 AM »

Quote from: SteveH on July 23, 2024, 11:13:45 AM

"Almost"? It's fucking hilarious! Trump campaign HQ was frantically telling everyone to go easy on him over the age-and-doolallyness issues, for fear of him standing down.

Yes. I added the 'almost' because there are so many people in the cult that will just unquestioningly lap it all up and believe every word.

ad_orientem · « **Reply #374 on:** July 23, 2024, 11:29:15 AM »

Now that Biden's gone, remember, Trump is too old (among other things)👇

News:

Author Topic: US Presidential Election 2024 (Read 35518 times)