Margaret Ferrier: Covid train trip MP loses appeal over Commons ban

[ProfessorDavey]

Except for your blatant sexism

What blatant sexism?

The sex of the individuals is completely irrelevant to the point - therefore there can be no sexism, blatant or otherwise.

[Nearly Sane]

What blatant sexism?

The sex of the individuals is completely irrelevant to the point - therefore there can be no sexism, blatant or otherwise.

The sexism where you gave a set of men who were 'competent' in an old boy's club and decided Ferrier failed.

[ProfessorDavey]

The sexism where you gave a set of men who were 'competent' in an old boy's club and decided Ferrier failed.

Oh dear - wrong yet again.

Let's not forget that I never mentioned an old boy's club - that was you, not me Chip.

I provided a number of potential reasons why Ferrier (or any other MP in a similar position) may struggle to effectively represent her (or his) constituents. None are based on the sex of that individual. To reiterate.

1. As she (or he) has been thrown out of their party and are now independent they will no longer benefit from Short monies (or equivalent for a party in government) - this amounts to approx. £20k per year to support research, develop briefings and generally support the MP's ability to perform their parliamentary work, which includes representing their constituents.

2. A lot of the work of MPs involves developing good professional working relationships with other MPs to gain confidence and goodwill which is used to support private conversations where issues relating to constituents can be raised and matters discussed with those in more senior positions of influence etc. That is a key way in which MPs are able to support and represent their constituents and is, frankly pretty similar to most professional roles. Ferrier had been an MP for just a few months prior to the covid issue breaking meaning she'd have had very little time to develop those relationships - she was an MP briefly for less that 2 year to 2017, but again this is a short period of time and many MPs will have changed. This is nothing to do with her sex, simply that she hadn't had the time (sometime decades - e.g. Clark, Beckett etc) to develop those relationships and goodwill.

3. Westminster politics is tribal - so typically MPs will have support of their 'tribe' but if they are kicked out of their own tribe, the question arises as to whether they are likely to continue to engender goodwill from some within their previous 'tribe'/party, and/or engender goodwill from those of other parties. This links to 2 above. But here again Ferrier has an issue. I cannot see the issue she was thrown out over engendering goodwill anywhere in the commons, no-one is going to be saying to her 'good on you, glad to see someone standing up for breaking covid rules'. Compare that to 2019 when 21 tories (almost all men out of interest) had the whip removed for voting against the government on brexit - including Clarke, Stewart (and for completeness Greening). While they had been officially thrown out of their party there would be some tories and plenty in other parties who would extend them goodwill and support as they agreed with them on the issue that they were thrown out over. Not the case for Ferrier.

Now not one of those issues has anything fundamentally to do with the MPs sex - it would apply just as much to a man as to a woman. Now you might argue that 2 has elements of an old boy's network and therefore that it is more difficult for a woman to develop those professional relationships compared to a man. But if that were the case then it would reflect sexism on the part of the commons as an institution, not on the part of me if I suggested it.

So, no NS, there is no sexism or misogyny in my arguments, you are wrong just as you were spectacularly wrong in your accusation that I was racist. I still await an apology on that latter matter.
2.

[jeremyp]

So the use of 'effective' there is a tautology 'effectively'. And your defence of it is the Old Boy's Network? Thank you for showing your misogyny.

I think you've gone off the deep end, NS. Whatever else PD says, "informal routes to ministers" is not the same as an "old boys' network" and there is no reason in the modern era why the "old boys' network" should consist entirely of boys. Even if it did, it doesn't make PD misogynistic to argue that having access to it makes you more effective as an MP.

[Nearly Sane]

I think you've gone off the deep end, NS. Whatever else PD says, "informal routes to ministers" is not the same as an "old boys' network" and there is no reason in the modern era why the "old boys' network" should consist entirely of boys. Even if it did, it doesn't make PD misogynistic to argue that having access to it makes you more effective as an MP.

So what is it about Ferrier that makes her unique in Prof D's views as nor able to represent her constituents compared to all the men he mentioned?

[jeremyp]

So what is it about Ferrier that makes her unique in Prof D's views as nor able to represent her constituents compared to all the men he mentioned?

I have seen nothing to suggest that PD thinks the men he has mentioned are or were any less hamstrung as MPs by being suspended from their party.

[Nearly Sane]

I have seen nothing to suggest that PD thinks the men he has mentioned are or were any less hamstrung as MPs by being suspended from their party.

Apart from what he wrote.

[ProfessorDavey]

So what is it about Ferrier that makes her unique in Prof D's views as nor able to represent her constituents compared to all the men he mentioned?

Oh dear - back on the misrepresentation cool-aid I see.

Where did I ever suggest that Ferrier's situation is unique - oh yes, I never did.

What I did do is indicate a number of reasons why it may be more challenging for an MP elected on the basis of being the member of a particular political party to continue to represent their constituents effectively if they are subsequently kicked out of that party and become an independent.

I then gave some examples of others suspended from political parties who (for various reasons) might find it a little easier to continue to represent their constituents - largely associated with built up reputation/goodwill and the nature of the act that led to their suspension.

While eveyone's situations are a bit different there are also others whose ability to represent their constituents would be equally (or even more) compromised due to their supension from the party they were elected on behalf, the reasons for the suspension and their (lack of) built up respect/goodwill. The three who most obviously spring to mind in the reasonably recent past are Jarad O'Mara, Charles Elphicke and Fiona Onasanya.

Cue NS accusing me of racism, sexism and prejudice against disabled people as that list includes a woman, a black person and a disabled person!!!

[Nearly Sane]

Oh dear - back on the misrepresentation cool-aid I see.

Where did I ever suggest that Ferrier's situation is unique - oh yes, I never did.

What I did do is indicate a number of reasons why it may be more challenging for an MP elected on the basis of being the member of a particular political party to continue to represent their constituents effectively if they are subsequently kicked out of that party and become an independent.

I then gave some examples of others suspended from political parties who (for various reasons) might find it a little easier to continue to represent their constituents - largely associated with built up reputation/goodwill and the nature of the act that led to their suspension.

While eveyone's situations are a bit different there are also others whose ability to represent their constituents would be equally (or even more) compromised due to their supension from the party they were elected on behalf, the reasons for the suspension and their (lack of) built up respect/goodwill. The three who most obviously spring to mind in the reasonably recent past are Jarad O'Mara, Charles Elphicke and Fiona Onasanya.

Cue NS accusing me of racism, sexism and prejudice against disabled people as that list includes a woman, a black person and a disabled person!!!

oh look, accused of sexism, so you then put up a list that has a woman on it! Nice illustration of your sexism.

[ProfessorDavey]

oh look, accused of sexism, so you then put up a list that has a woman on it! Nice illustration of your sexism.

I trust you are trying to be humorous - albeit not very successfully.

Still waiting for that apology for accusing me of racism.

[Nearly Sane]

I trust you are trying to be humorous - albeit not very successfully.

Still waiting for that apology for accusing me of racism.

Your trust is misplaced. Your sexism is obvious.

[ProfessorDavey]

Your trust is misplaced. Your sexism is obvious.

Yawn

[Nearly Sane]

Yawn

Indeed, your obvious sexism is tedious

[ProfessorDavey]

So far I've really only mentioned the Westminster elements that might mean Ferrier may well struggle to effectively represent her constituents. But there are also issues in the constituency too.

In order to represent his or her constituents an MP must engage effectively with them, typically about 100,000 people. This is pretty well impossible on a direct one-to-one basis so MPs will use other routes. First an MP will use activists, which may also include other elected representatives - e.g. councillors, members of devolved assemblies etc as extra eyes and ears - knocking on doors, meeting people in a variety of situations. That knowledge will be fed back to the MP. When an MP is kicked out of her party they lose that base of activists unless they are more loyal to him or her than the party. In Ferrier's case, considering the misdemeanour she's been kicked out for I cannot image many activists being prepared to 'pound the streets' on her behalf, which would also involve having to step back from the SNP. Councillors, MSPs etc will not be allowed to formally support a non-SNP MP unless they also resign from the SNP, which I don't think any have. So her ability to engage by using extra 'eyes and ears' will be massively diminished.

Another common way in which MPs engage is through visits and meeting - opening a new school building, giving a short talk at the local business leaders forum, turning up at the local food bank etc etc. Under normal circumstances this is both good publicity (for both the MP and the organisations) plus gives a great opportunity for quiet conversations on matters of concern etc. I imagine those invites will have dried up - imagine the conversation amongst a school governing board:

'Who should we invite to open the new building?'
'Hmm - we could ask the MP'
'What, disgraced, convicted, double suspended Ferrier - not sure that's going to send a great message to the kids or parents'
'Oh yes, and we'd get terrible coverage in the local rag'
'And she's almost certainly not going to be our MP in a couple of months, so any messages we could get across will simply be lost'
'What's the name of our local MSP again?'

So no invite - and if she reaches out no doubt plenty of those requests will be quietly declined.

The lifeblood of engagement with constituents, involving activists and visits, meeting etc will be cut off for a disgraced, convicted, suspended MP.

[jeremyp]

So far I've really only mentioned the Westminster elements that might mean Ferrier may well struggle to effectively represent her constituents. But there are also issues in the constituency too.

In order to represent his or her constituents an MP must engage effectively with them, typically about 100,000 people. This is pretty well impossible on a direct one-to-one basis so MPs will use other routes. First an MP will use activists, which may also include other elected representatives - e.g. councillors, members of devolved assemblies etc as extra eyes and ears - knocking on doors, meeting people in a variety of situations. That knowledge will be fed back to the MP. When an MP is kicked out of her party they lose that base of activists unless they are more loyal to him or her than the party. In Ferrier's case, considering the misdemeanour she's been kicked out for I cannot image many activists being prepared to 'pound the streets' on her behalf, which would also involve having to step back from the SNP. Councillors, MSPs etc will not be allowed to formally support a non-SNP MP unless they also resign from the SNP, which I don't think any have. So her ability to engage by using extra 'eyes and ears' will be massively diminished.

Another common way in which MPs engage is through visits and meeting - opening a new school building, giving a short talk at the local business leaders forum, turning up at the local food bank etc etc. Under normal circumstances this is both good publicity (for both the MP and the organisations) plus gives a great opportunity for quiet conversations on matters of concern etc. I imagine those invites will have dried up - imagine the conversation amongst a school governing board:

'Who should we invite to open the new building?'
'Hmm - we could ask the MP'
'What, disgraced, convicted, double suspended Ferrier - not sure that's going to send a great message to the kids or parents'
'Oh yes, and we'd get terrible coverage in the local rag'
'And she's almost certainly not going to be our MP in a couple of months, so any messages we could get across will simply be lost'
'What's the name of our local MSP again?'

So no invite - and if she reaches out no doubt plenty of those requests will be quietly declined.

The lifeblood of engagement with constituents, involving activists and visits, meeting etc will be cut off for a disgraced, convicted, suspended MP.

All this is true but currently moot because she is suspended as an MP. After that she will be subject to a recall petition. If 10% of the electorate sign it, she's gone. Will 10% of the electorate sign the petition? Well, the constituency has about 80 thousand on the electoral roll and about 28 thousand people voted against Ferrier at the last election. I think there's a good chance that eight or nine thousand people can be persuaded to sign the petition.

[ProfessorDavey]

All this is true but currently moot because she is suspended as an MP.

True, but the precise current position involving suspension from parliament is recent. She's been convicted, disgraced and suspended from the SNP since late 2020/early 2021. The loss of her SNP-activist base will have been ongoing since then, as, I would image, will the lack of invites to the kinds of events I suggested since her conviction and community sentencing. If you were looking for someone to open your school/hospital etc would you really be inviting someone who so grievously broke the law that others followed at grave cost. What kind of message would that send. What kind of bad publicity would that attract.

After that she will be subject to a recall petition. If 10% of the electorate sign it, she's gone. Will 10% of the electorate sign the petition? Well, the constituency has about 80 thousand on the electoral roll and about 28 thousand people voted against Ferrier at the last election. I think there's a good chance that eight or nine thousand people can be persuaded to sign the petition.

I think it is pretty locked on that the recall petition will be successful - and I gave the evidence from the previous three recall petitions - these attracted 40%, 50% and 80% of the number of voters who'd voted for other parties in the previous election. For this petition to be successful they only need to attract 27% of those voting against her last time to sign.

[ProfessorDavey]

If 10% of the electorate sign it, she's gone.

Not necessarily so in theory.

A recall petition just triggers a by-election - there is nothing to stop the previous MP from standing, either for their previous party if they haven't been kicked out, or as an independent. I don't think there is any chance that she'd be readmitted to the SNP, but she could stand as an independent and if she has sufficient support could be re-elected.

As I said, this is theoretical - back in the real world there isn't a cat in hell's chance of her re-election following a successful recall petition.

[Nearly Sane]

Katy Loudon to be the SNP candidate in event of by election


https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1667204328602365952?t=DOrRlwhp39YW0B-H8adjug&s=19

[Nearly Sane]

And some disquiet on the short list for Labour's candidate

[jeremyp]

Not necessarily so in theory.

A recall petition just triggers a by-election - there is nothing to stop the previous MP from standing, either for their previous party if they haven't been kicked out, or as an independent. I don't think there is any chance that she'd be readmitted to the SNP, but she could stand as an independent and if she has sufficient support could be re-elected.

As I said, this is theoretical - back in the real world there isn't a cat in hell's chance of her re-election following a successful recall petition.

Which is why I said "she's gone". Standing as an independent, the only thing she is going to do is maybe split the SNP vote.

[Nearly Sane]

Recall petition successful


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-66376464

[ProfessorDavey]

Recall petition successful


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-66376464

In more surprising news it is being reported that bears defecate where there are trees.

[Nearly Sane]

 Whoever is elected, they will be the last MP for the current constituency


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-66376495

[Nearly Sane]

Alba not putting up candidate


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-66630395

[Nearly Sane]

The runners

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-66395472