Author Topic: ULEZ  (Read 4091 times)

Nearly Sane

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #50 on: August 16, 2023, 04:23:58 PM »
Nope doesn't cut it as evidence - merely unverified anecdote.
Nope you are missing the point.

My last non compliant car was a 2011 diesel citroen, which I sold in 2016 for £5,800. Using one of the many car market value checkers I put in this car's registration number and assumptions that mileage continues as when I owned it and it remained in good condition for its age. This provided a current market value (i.e. in Aug 2023) of a smidge over £4,100. That car has held its second hand value very well, despite being non compliant. And that makes sense as for mot people, in most parts of the country ULEZ compliance when buying car is irrelevant. Also the types of car most likely to be non compliant - old, fairly large diesel cars - are actually rather attractive second hand as they tend to be difficult to replicate with more modern cars in terms of available room and are cheap to run.

So as long as ULEZ compliance isn't an issue - which it wouldn't be for most people - then the upsides are sufficient to ensure that market value of those cars is highly competitive.
Aren't you just contrasting one anecdote with another?
« Last Edit: August 16, 2023, 04:43:41 PM by Nearly Sane »

Nearly Sane

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #51 on: August 21, 2023, 07:22:12 PM »

jeremyp

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #52 on: August 22, 2023, 09:40:54 AM »
Nope doesn't cut it as evidence - merely unverified anecdote.
As is what you brought up.

Quote
So as long as ULEZ compliance isn't an issue - which it wouldn't be for most people - then the upsides are sufficient to ensure that market value of those cars is highly competitive.
Maybe you should talk to shop owners in Bristol about the upsides of our CAZ and other anti car policies. Be quick though, they are all going bankrupt.

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jeremyp

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #53 on: August 22, 2023, 09:44:41 AM »
Meanwhile in Glasgow


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-66567690

Apart from the specialist vehicles like the cherry picker, I'm surprised that Glasgow Council has any vehicles that old.

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Nearly Sane

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #54 on: August 22, 2023, 11:47:42 AM »
Apart from the specialist vehicles like the cherry picker, I'm surprised that Glasgow Council has any vehicles that old.
Given their financial circumstances, I'm surprised they had any that complied.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #55 on: August 22, 2023, 05:30:10 PM »
I live in Bristol and any cursory examination of its city centre is that it is dying. This is in part due to the council's insistence on banishing cars from it. The CAZ is only the latest initiative in this respect. I suspect it will be the final nail in the coffin.

I live within walking distance of the city centre. I could shop there using only the transport of my own legs. But because the choice of shops is becoming more limited every day - unless you want a coffee or to donate to a charity - my expeditions are more likely to be successful if I go to Cribbs Causeway, which is a massive out of town centre to the North West and is importantly just off the M5.
Yup sounds exactly like the City centre where I live - once upon a time it used to be a thriving  retail hub, now all you can buy is coffee. Retail outlets come and then fail at the drop of the hat, charity shops and boarded up premises abound. The once landmark stores one by one are disappearing - Woolies, long gone, BHS - no more, Top Shop - gone. Wilko, likely gone in months.

So yup, you are right - it must be all down to the low emission zone and other 'anti car' measures the council have put in place.

Oh, hold on - that's not right. My city has no low emission zone, nor does it have low traffic neighbourhood initiatives. Nor any meaningful bus lanes and cycle infrastructure. In fact the whole notion of what you might call the 'anti car' agenda seems to have completely passed it by.

So maybe if your city centre and local high streets are in trouble, just as mine are, you might want to think a bit more broadly about why that is. And frankly it likely has little or nothing to do with the measures you describe. Indeed I think the key issues are:

1: On line shopping
2: Business rates
3: The ongoing covid legacy

High streets have been shifting from being predominantly retail and 'functional' (banks, building societies, post offices) to social and leisure destinations for decades - long before ULEZ (or equivalents) were a twinkle in some metro-mayors eyes.

So perhaps the CEZ in Bristol or the ULEZ in London has had a minor impact on the high street - but actually evidence from the analysis of such schemes across a whole range of european cities with LEZs suggest that the impact is actually positive, not negative. Here is some actual evidence rather than your anecdote about Bristol vs my anecdote about St Albans.

https://cleancitiescampaign.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Clean-Cities-briefing_-Why-fewer-polluting-cars-in-cities-are-good-news-for-local-shops_1.pdf

'The analysis therefore demonstrates that low emission zones can be a win-win-win solution for clean air, the climate and the local economy:
● Low emission zones and similar policies that reduce car use have generally had positive effects on the turnover of the retail sector in cities,
● Retail vacancy (the number of empty shops) can be reduced.

This can be explained by several factors:
● Car use plays a less important role for customers than shop owners think,
● Customers that walk, cycle, wheel or use public transport spend more overall
as they visit local shops more frequently and represent a higher proportion of all customers.'


Amazingly in a part of outer London (exactly where the 'battle' over ULEZ expansion is taking place) retailer thought that over 60% of their customers got there by car - the reality was only 20%.

Having provided evidence, back to anecdote - I was visiting various parts of East London last week (I work there but was actually not just going from home to office and back) - thriving, busy, full of vitality, packed full of local independent retail outlets of all types. Guess what - the various places I was visiting are all smack in the current ULEZ.

Oh and by the way the lungs and neural development of our children are more important, in my opinion, than the 'so-called' freedoms of the pro-car lobby to drive whatever car they like where-ever they want, regardless of the consequences to health.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2023, 09:38:06 PM by ProfessorDavey »

Harrowby Hall

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #56 on: August 23, 2023, 08:41:40 PM »
Very interesting submission, Prof.

A factor that I have thought important is a change which has been taking place  (probably over decades) and that is retail premises ownership. I recall a conversation a very long time ago with a teaching colleague who had been a Marks & Spencer retail manager. He said that M&S (then) owned most of its retain property and was frequently criticised for wasting its time and talent in property management rather than selling things to the public.

Could one reason for the state of our town centres be that retail companies do not own the the shops they operate and that their landlords are charging rents that make it difficult for their tenants to operate profitably? Hence town centres have become a patchwork of empty shops and coffee bars.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #57 on: August 24, 2023, 11:57:37 AM »
Very interesting submission, Prof.

A factor that I have thought important is a change which has been taking place  (probably over decades) and that is retail premises ownership. I recall a conversation a very long time ago with a teaching colleague who had been a Marks & Spencer retail manager. He said that M&S (then) owned most of its retain property and was frequently criticised for wasting its time and talent in property management rather than selling things to the public.

Could one reason for the state of our town centres be that retail companies do not own the the shops they operate and that their landlords are charging rents that make it difficult for their tenants to operate profitably? Hence town centres have become a patchwork of empty shops and coffee bars.
Yes rents are definitely an issue, which is of course also coupled to business rates. And I think you are probably right that historically there would have been far more shops that owned their own premises rather than rented.

But I think there is a broader issue that the reason why people head to town and city centres has changed completely from a few decades ago. Once you went because you needed to, as that was the only place you could get all sorts of things you needed. But now with out of town and on-line shopping far fewer people feel they need to go to town and city centres (they can get pretty well everything they need in a few clicks on Amazon).

Now people go because they want to go - it is a kind of event/leisure destination, where people might do a bit of non-necessary shopping, but also meet others for a coffee or a meal etc. And for that to be an attractive destination the place needs to be inviting - not just in the selection of retail outlets (shops/cafes/restaurants) available but also in the broader ambiance and environment.

This shift has nothing to do with ULEZ or similar schemes and I suspect these schemes have very limited impact on footfall. Indeed I can see (as the research seems to suggest) that reducing traffic into town and city centres creates are rather more inviting place for people to want to go to. However I think the big issue is that many town and city centres haven't really adapted well to the shift from visiting out of need to visiting out of want, and the business models still seem set up on the basis of a need-type model.

Nearly Sane

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #58 on: September 01, 2023, 04:50:31 PM »
I wonder how many people doing the vandalism here will be vituoerative and climate change activists protests.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-66675787

ProfessorDavey

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #59 on: September 01, 2023, 04:53:22 PM »
I wonder how many people doing the vandalism here will be vituoerative and climate change activists protests.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-66675787
vituoerative?

Explain please.

Nearly Sane

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #60 on: September 01, 2023, 05:03:48 PM »
vituoerative?

Explain please.

Tyoo

Vituperative

And and should be about. Been a long day

jeremyp

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #61 on: September 01, 2023, 06:27:32 PM »
Indeed I think the key issues are:

1: On line shopping
2: Business rates
3: The ongoing covid legacy


And yet the big out of town shopping centre is thriving.

Back to the drawing board for you.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #62 on: September 02, 2023, 09:23:11 AM »
And yet the big out of town shopping centre is thriving.

Back to the drawing board for you.
Except they aren't:

https://www.drapersonline.com/news/footfall-cools-in-june-despite-heatwave

"We saw fewer visits to shopping centres and retail parks than last year. But high street locations were busier and footfall in major cities also improved ...”

So the places doing the best are high street locations and major cities - you know the places most likely to have low emission zones. Certainly consistent with the previous data I linked to suggesting that low emission zones and similar policies that reduce car use generally had positive effects on the turnover of the retail sector in cities.

Back to the drawing board for you.

jeremyp

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #63 on: September 02, 2023, 12:32:41 PM »
Except they aren't:

https://www.drapersonline.com/news/footfall-cools-in-june-despite-heatwave

"We saw fewer visits to shopping centres and retail parks than last year. But high street locations were busier and footfall in major cities also improved ...”

So the places doing the best are high street locations and major cities - you know the places most likely to have low emission zones. Certainly consistent with the previous data I linked to suggesting that low emission zones and similar policies that reduce car use generally had positive effects on the turnover of the retail sector in cities.

Back to the drawing board for you.

I was talking about my local area, not retail generally.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #64 on: September 02, 2023, 03:12:50 PM »
I was talking about my local area, not retail generally.
Oh Bristol you mean - well here is some local information.

https://www.redcliffeandtemplebid.co.uk/news/bristol-city-centre-sees-strong-quarterly-growth/

Looks like Bristol city centre is in robust health - not much evidence of the CAZ negatively impacting the city centre. Indeed, quite the reverse - for example footfall in Victoria Street (smack in the middle of the CAZ) is up 25% on this time last year which was, of course, before the CAZ was launched.

So it seems that Bristol is following other places, in that the low emission zones appears to be having a positive effects on the turnover of the retail and leisure sectors in cities.

jeremyp

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #65 on: September 02, 2023, 08:04:17 PM »
Oh Bristol you mean - well here is some local information.

https://www.redcliffeandtemplebid.co.uk/news/bristol-city-centre-sees-strong-quarterly-growth/

Looks like Bristol city centre is in robust health

With respect, you don't live there. It's dying.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #66 on: September 03, 2023, 11:33:45 AM »
With respect, you don't live there. It's dying.
With respect, the opinion of one person (even if that person lives in Bristol) is simply the opinion of a single person. It carries no more weight than the opinion of any of the other approx. 500k individual people who live in Bristol. And, of course, it carries far less weight than actual data on the high street, specifically looking at footfall and spending.

Sure high streets have changed over the past decades (one opinion might be that they are dying), but I cannot see any evidence that low emission zones have contributed detrimentally to high streets and the evidence seems to suggest that if there is an effect then it is mildly positive (and that evidence includes data specifically on Bristol, which carries far greater weight than your opinion Jeremy).
« Last Edit: September 03, 2023, 11:53:42 AM by ProfessorDavey »

SteveH

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ProfessorDavey

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #68 on: September 04, 2023, 03:40:39 PM »
Hugh Muir in the Garudnia. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/in-times-that-cry-out-for-leadership-we-get-followship-sadiq-khan-is-bucking-that-trend-with-ulez/ar-AA1gc8RR
An interesting article - much of which I agree with.

On the politics, the worst possible thing Khan could have done would have been to have delayed and allowed the implementation to still be a live issue at the time of next year's election. For all the 'direct action' (also known as vandalism) the implementation has punctured the key message of the opponents - namely let's stop the ULEZ expansion. With its implementation, firstly the vast, vast majority of people will have now realised that it hasn't impacted them at all (well other than the positive impacts of lower pollution and possible slightly reduce congestion). They either don't own a car (like about half of Londoners) or they own a compliant car (like at least 90% of that 50% car owners). So for all the sound and fury their response will likely be 'so what on earth was all the fuss about'.

But politically the actual implementation puts opponents in a really difficult position. It is one thing to oppose something before it has been implemented, quite another to oppose it after implementation, which would require campaigning to scrap the scheme. That would surely be political suicide - firstly you'd be saying to most of the electorate that they'll have to suffer worse air quality despite them not being impacted directly by the ULEZ as their cars are either compliant or non-existent. But even for those who have non compliant cars - most of these people will have taken action by the time an election rolls around, which would likely be replacing their cars with compliant models. I suspect many people have already done this. So these people might have been your political friends pre-implementation but having taken action they are hardly going to take kindly to being told they didn't need to change their cars (which they will already have done) after all.
« Last Edit: September 04, 2023, 03:45:45 PM by ProfessorDavey »

Nearly Sane

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #69 on: September 08, 2023, 04:11:48 PM »

Nearly Sane

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #70 on: October 17, 2023, 03:14:16 PM »
Court case about Glasgow's scheme started. Don't see it being successful.


https://archive.vn/G0qYH

Nearly Sane

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #71 on: November 02, 2023, 12:39:31 PM »


SteveH

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Re: ULEZ
« Reply #73 on: December 20, 2023, 01:46:59 PM »
If they had a scheme in the Netherlands, would it be ULEZ Holland?
When conspiracy nuts start spouting their bollocks, the best answer is "That's what they want you to think".