Author Topic: Cabinet reshuffle  (Read 2922 times)

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #50 on: November 13, 2023, 06:37:05 PM »
You mean he was incompetent for not choosing the electoral roll that would make it more likely that his 'side' would win? So you think gerrymandering is a good thing.
It wouldn't have been gerrymandering - it would have been choosing the most appropriate electorate for the question being posed - which was about EU membership and guess what, we already had an electoral roll for elections about the EU, the one used for EU elections.

Not to choose that electoral roll demonstrated stupidity and incompetence given that it was both the most appropriate electoral roll and also the one more likely to generate a remain win. So he reverse-gerrymandered, manipulated the electoral roll to make losing more likely.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #51 on: November 13, 2023, 06:40:32 PM »
It wouldn't have been gerrymandering - it would have been choosing the most appropriate electorate for the question being posed - which was about EU membership and guess what, we already had an electoral roll for elections about the EU, the one used for EU elections.

Not to choose that electoral roll demonstrated stupidity and incompetence given that it was both the most appropriate electoral roll and also the one more likely to generate a remain win. So he reverse-gerrymandered, manipulated the electoral roll to make losing more likely.
So the 'most appropriate' is you expressing your opinion, and not relevant to whether Cameron was incompetent. The 'most likely to win' is then just gerrymandering.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #52 on: November 13, 2023, 06:50:07 PM »
So the 'most appropriate' is you expressing your opinion, and not relevant to whether Cameron was incompetent. The 'most likely to win' is then just gerrymandering.
How on earth can you argue other than the electorate that is used for EU elections isn't the most appropriate for a referendum about ... err ... the EU.

Just as the general election electoral roll was the most appropriate to use for a referendum about ... err ... how we vote at general elections.

He made a decision to use a different electoral roll to the one that aligned with the question being asked and in doing so made it more difficult for him to win - reverse gerrymandering incompetence.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #53 on: November 13, 2023, 06:56:45 PM »
How on earth can you argue other than the electorate that is used for EU elections isn't the most appropriate for a referendum about ... err ... the EU.

Just as the general election electoral roll was the most appropriate to use for a referendum about ... err ... how we vote at general elections.

He made a decision to use a different electoral roll to the one that aligned with the question being asked and in doing so made it more difficult for him to win - reverse gerrymandering incompetence.
The argument would be that it's about what happens with UK citizens, not EU ones. I can see the arguments for either. And that you think it was incomoetencw underlines you're desire to win by chosing the one that made it more likely, i.e. gerrymandering.


Nearly Sane

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #55 on: November 13, 2023, 07:11:59 PM »

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #56 on: November 13, 2023, 07:20:56 PM »
The argument would be that it's about what happens with UK citizens, not EU ones.
Which would be the equivalent of not allowing English people living in Scotland from voting in the IndyRef - that was, quite reasonably rejected in favour of the electorate that votes in scottish parliament elections. So why was the equivalent rejected in the EU referendum? Incompetence and complacency as others seem to agree.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #57 on: November 13, 2023, 07:36:20 PM »
Which would be the equivalent of not allowing English people living in Scotland from voting in the IndyRef - that was, quite reasonably rejected in favour of the electorate that votes in scottish parliament elections. So why was the equivalent rejected in the EU referendum? Incompetence and complacency as others seem to agree.
Except that there is no such electoral roll as that so it's not equivalent. That others agree with you here is simply you trying to use an ad populum.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2023, 07:41:35 PM by Nearly Sane »

Nearly Sane

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #58 on: November 14, 2023, 07:52:29 AM »
Thinking about my opinion of Cameron, perhaps Prof D and I are not that far apart but are hung up on the effect of words.
Incompetence to me seems to reflect a pattern of behaviour. Johnson to me is the most consistently incompetent PM of my time. His reverse Midas touch being 100% effective but he did win an election with an unfortunately fecund majority.

I am not sure of the right word for Truss, as a distilled intense month of crap, perhaps to paraphrase Percy from the 2nd series of Blackadder, she 'had discovered purest shite'.

Cameron, on the other hsnd, had won 2 elections, an unusual enough achievement, his second victory an indication of some success in his first term, given a majority. He managed being PM through a period of coalition, and his first term was not the serial farce of Johnson.

He had used referendums to first pacify his coalition partners, and then 'rebellious Scots to crush.' And therein lay the decision which I think there might be more agreement on was the most costly to the UK of PMs of my lifetime.

The third referendum happened, not I would suggest, because of incompetence, but rather a hubris similar to that which befell Thatcher and Blair as they won elections. The chance to forever heal the generations long divide in the Tory Party. The chance to remove the wailing chancre that was Farage, and by using his favourite sword of democracy the referendum.

And he would choose the battlefield of the bumpier electoral roll, not out of complacency brought on by his upbringing, but that very hubris that his success in power had brought about. He would do it for what were to him the purest of reasons as it would silence any doubters, if they seemed to choose the field, not him. The dragon would be slain, and none could cavil that the fight was unfair.

Even as the skirmishes started, he didn't want any accusation that it wasn't a fair fight so the Remain campaign happened with him cheerleading more than vanquishing. As the battle heightened, he saw the need to get more involved but found it had shifted away, yet still the entrails examined by the haruspices of William Hill and Bet Fair seemed to side with him.

But, as so often, the gods used the fool to betray him. His thrice democratic campaign fell from the first in the vadts of Sunderland in a land now sundered, where Nigel blew(his own trumpet) and UKIP chundered. Despite his once doughty foes, the Scots sacrificing themselves in numbers that seemed already mythical, the heat of the sun god melted the wings of the man who would be the son king of both the Blessed Margaret and the Titan Tony.

He fell, he fell through air and time, holding once onto a passing green sill but somehow believing, knowing that like another lost general he would return, like another sacrificed son king, his demise was not permanent.
« Last Edit: November 14, 2023, 09:16:35 AM by Nearly Sane »

Harrowby Hall

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #59 on: November 14, 2023, 08:20:30 AM »
Coomon sense:

I have done no research into this matter and I do not possess any qualification for arriving at my decision ...
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jeremyp

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #60 on: November 14, 2023, 09:49:17 AM »
Agree with that and also squeakyvoice's points.

Another element of incompetence was the decision over the referendum 'electorate' - typically this reflects the nature of the question. So this should have been the electoral roll used for EU elections, which of course includes EU citizens with residency in the UK. But they chose to use the general election roll thereby disenfranchising those most likely to be impacted and also more likely to vote remain. Incompetence on the part of Cameron and his government.

Aruntraveller is correct - not just incompetent, but complacent. But when you are part of an elite which will always be fine whatever way political decisions go then complacency is likely to be baked in.

I'll give you complacent. He was complacent.
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jeremyp

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #61 on: November 14, 2023, 09:55:00 AM »
It wouldn't have been gerrymandering - it would have been choosing the most appropriate electorate for the question being posed - which was about EU membership and guess what, we already had an electoral roll for elections about the EU, the one used for EU elections.

Not to choose that electoral roll demonstrated stupidity and incompetence given that it was both the most appropriate electoral roll and also the one more likely to generate a remain win. So he reverse-gerrymandered, manipulated the electoral roll to make losing more likely.

It wasn't an EU election, it was an election about staying in the EU. I too would have preferred an electoral roll that would be more likely to get a Remain victory. I too would have preferred a set of rules that would have given a Remain victory, but you forget that Cameron's motivation was to shut up the anti-EU wing of his party and destroy the likes of UKIP who were leaching Tory votes. Any sign of bias towards Remain would negatively impact his goal. And, of course, he thought he would win anyway.

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jeremyp

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #62 on: November 14, 2023, 09:59:06 AM »
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #63 on: November 14, 2023, 10:06:18 AM »
The full new cabinet

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63376560
That does feel more centrist than the current set of MPs, or the party currently. Obviously there are a few 'who?s' but even those feel quite low for the turmoil over recent years.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #64 on: November 14, 2023, 12:01:17 PM »
It wasn't an EU election, it was an election about staying in the EU.
The AV referendum wasn't a general election, but it was about how we vote in general elections - hence they used the general election roll.

The indyref wasn't a scottish parliament election, but was about Scotland's future - hence they used the electoral roll that is used for scottish parliament elections.

The EU referendum wasn't a European parliament election but was about the relationship with the EU - hence they used the electoral roll that is used for EU elections. Oh, wait, they didn't - they used an electoral roll that is about UK general elections which had never been used for democratic processes directly linked to the EU.

Even if you argue that either/or would have been an appropriate choice then you come back to the competence question - why on earth choose one of two reasonable options (not that I think they were equivalent - see above) that is more likely to make you lose.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #65 on: November 14, 2023, 12:12:17 PM »
... but you forget that Cameron's motivation was to shut up the anti-EU wing of his party and destroy the likes of UKIP who were leaching Tory votes.
But again that demonstrates the incompetence of the Cameron government in thinking that promising a referendum was consequence free and would shut up the extremes once and for all.

Throwing red meat to the extremes doesn't shut them up, it emboldens them and makes them demand more. Cameron stupidly thought that promising an in/out referendum as part of the Tories 2015 manifesto would put UKIP back in their box. But it didn't, quite the reverse - rather than seeing UKIP % votes dwindle as the anti-EU mob folded back into the Tory camp we saw by far the highest vote share UKIP, compared to previous elections when the main parties weren't promising an EU referendum.

As we have seen since, you simply cannot placate the extremes by tracking in their direction, as they will alway demand more and there will always be a marginal parties and groups within mainstream parties within further to the extreme shouting that they are the only 'true believers'.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #66 on: November 14, 2023, 05:13:35 PM »
This is the sort of broad church where the heretics get burned at the stake.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67420331

Gordon

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #67 on: November 14, 2023, 05:20:54 PM »
This is the sort of broad church where the heretics get burned at the stake.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67420331

Wow - it would be funny if it weren't for the fact that this group of fuckwits are supposed to be running the country: instead they are too busy fighting with each other.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #68 on: November 14, 2023, 05:22:13 PM »
Wow - it would be funny if it weren't for the fact that this group of fuckwits are supposed to be running the country: instead they are too busy fighting with each other.
Don't worry! They have McVey as Minister outwith Common Sense.

Gordon

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #69 on: November 14, 2023, 05:49:25 PM »
It pisses me off when to the this 'priorities of the British people' crap - a priority for some of us 'British people' would be to get rid of the Tories at the earliest opportunity, and we hang our heads in despair at the misery the have inflicted on us such as with their Brexit madness.

The best 'Brexit benefit' we could have would be the demise of the Tory party in its current form because those elements of the electorate who believed the lies paid them back via the ballot box, and no doubt they will hang on until the bitter end before we get that chance.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #70 on: November 14, 2023, 08:06:57 PM »
I see Farage is 8th favourite to take over from Sunak as Tory leader (Braverman is 4th, Cameron 5th), and 4th to win I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here - insert any joke about kangaroo anuses in any order and it works.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #71 on: November 15, 2023, 07:49:03 AM »
I see Farage is 8th favourite to take over from Sunak as Tory leader (Braverman is 4th, Cameron 5th), and 4th to win I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here - insert any joke about kangaroo anuses in any order and it works.
I've looked at this again, and there is a magical economy to it. You don't have to have a joke in any order. You just read the first half of the sentence, and then shout kangaroo anuses and it works.

jeremyp

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #72 on: November 15, 2023, 09:30:05 AM »
The AV referendum wasn't a general election, but it was about how we vote in general elections - hence they used the general election roll.

The indyref wasn't a scottish parliament election, but was about Scotland's future - hence they used the electoral roll that is used for scottish parliament elections.

The EU referendum wasn't a European parliament election but was about the relationship with the EU - hence they used the electoral roll that is used for EU elections. Oh, wait, they didn't - they used an electoral roll that is about UK general elections which had never been used for democratic processes directly linked to the EU.
You are right, it wasn't an EU election, it was about Britain's ongoing relationship with the EU. There's no reason, therefore, to use the EU electoral roll.

Quote
Even if you argue that either/or would have been an appropriate choice then you come back to the competence question - why on earth choose one of two reasonable options (not that I think they were equivalent - see above) that is more likely to make you lose.

I told you: Cameron's objective was to nullify several anti-EU groups. Using an electoral roll that included a lot of continental Europeans would have opened him to accusations of rigging the poll and he thought he was going to win without having to do that.
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jeremyp

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #73 on: November 15, 2023, 09:34:08 AM »
I see Farage is 8th favourite to take over from Sunak as Tory leader (Braverman is 4th, Cameron 5th), and 4th to win I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here - insert any joke about kangaroo anuses in any order and it works.

The only one you list who has any kind of chance of being the next Tory leader is Braverman. None of the others are MPs and will probably remain not MPs after the next election.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Cabinet reshuffle
« Reply #74 on: November 15, 2023, 09:39:56 AM »
The only one you list who has any kind of chance of being the next Tory leader is Braverman. None of the others are MPs and will probably remain not MPs after the next election.
Kangaroo Anuses!!!