Smoking decline stalls since Covid as more young people take up the habit

[Nearly Sane]

Interesting but perhaps not surprising that 'the stall in the decline of smoking was most pronounced among advantaged social groups'.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67703066

[jeremyp]

Interesting but perhaps not surprising that 'the stall in the decline of smoking was most pronounced among advantaged social groups'.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67703066

Interesting. I thought young people all did vaping these days.

[Nearly Sane]

Interesting. I thought young people all did vaping these days.

It would appear not. It's interesting that the message vaping has some dangers too seems to translate into 'well, might as well smoke cigarrettes then'.

[ProfessorDavey]

Interesting but perhaps not surprising that 'the stall in the decline of smoking was most pronounced among advantaged social groups'.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67703066

Classic headline that doesn't actually seem justified by the data referred to in the article.

If you look at the data it suggests that there continue to be reducing proportions of young people smoking - 16.2% smoked in June 2017, falling to 15.1% by the start of the pandemic, in March 2020, but just 15% in August 2022 - quite how this equates to the headline of 'more young people take up the habit'. If more people were taking up the habit then surely the smoking rate would be increasing rather than continuing to decrease, but at a much slower rate than previously.

[Nearly Sane]

Classic headline that doesn't actually seem justified by the data referred to in the article.

If you look at the data it suggests that there continue to be reducing proportions of young people smoking - 16.2% smoked in June 2017, falling to 15.1% by the start of the pandemic, in March 2020, but just 15% in August 2022 - quite how this equates to the headline of 'more young people take up the habit'. If more people were taking up the habit then surely the smoking rate would be increasing rather than continuing to decrease, but at a much slower rate than previously.

Those percentages are totals for adults not young people.

'Based on surveys with 101,960 adults representative of the population, researchers estimated 16.2% smoked in June 2017, falling to 15.1% by the start of the pandemic, in March 2020, but just 15% in August 2022, since when the the slower rate of decline has remained consistent.'

[ProfessorDavey]

Those percentages are totals for adults not young people.

'Based on surveys with 101,960 adults representative of the population, researchers estimated 16.2% smoked in June 2017, falling to 15.1% by the start of the pandemic, in March 2020, but just 15% in August 2022, since when the the slower rate of decline has remained consistent.'

True - but actually when you look at the actual report, rather than the article, the claim remains misleading.

https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-023-03157-2/figures/1

So from Fig. 1b of the article. From 2017 to 2020 there was a slow decline in proportion of young people smoking. The pandemic produced a brief uplift, but since about April 2020 until the most recent data in Aug 2022 there has been a decline.

So the pandemic produced a one-off uplift in smoking rates amongst young people set against a declining trend both before and after the pandemic.

[Nearly Sane]

True - but actually when you look at the actual report, rather than the article, the claim remains misleading.

https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-023-03157-2/figures/1

So from Fig. 1b of the article. From 2017 to 2020 there was a slow decline in proportion of young people smoking. The pandemic produced a brief uplift, but since about April 2020 until the most recent data in Aug 2022 there has been a decline.

So the pandemic produced a one-off uplift in smoking rates amongst young people set against a declining trend both before and after the pandemic.

More young people took up the habit. More young peopke are smoking than pre pandemic. The decline in smoking has stalled.

You might argue with the nuance of the headline but I don't think it's misleading.

[ProfessorDavey]

More young people took up the habit. More young peopke are smoking than pre pandemic. The decline in smokung has stalled.

You might argue with the nuance of the headline but I don't think it's misleading.

No - that is poor interpretation of the data.

Smoking pre-pandemic amongst young people was declining - smoking post-pandemic amongst young people is still declining. The issue is a one off spike at the point of the pandemic. More young people took up smoking in the brief period March-June 2020, but since then fewer young people are smoking with time. In fact the data are about proportions smoking, there is nothing in the actual article on uptake at all.

Also - the decline hasn't stalled (which implies no decline) it has reducing in rate.

e.g. June 2017 - smoking rate amongst 18-24 was 25%, by March 2020 that had reduced to 18%, so a decline of approx. 2.5% per year.
April 2020 - smoking rate amongst 18-24 was 25%, by Aug 2022 that had reduced to 22.5%, so a decline of approx. 1.1% per year.

But the post-pandemic trend is still a reduction.

[Nearly Sane]

No - that is poor interpretation of the data.

Smoking pre-pandemic amongst young people was declining - smoking post-pandemic amongst young people is still declining. The issue is a one off spike at the point of the pandemic. More young people took up smoking in the brief period March-June 2020, but since then fewer young people have been taking up the habit. In fact the data are about proportions smoking, there is nothing in the actual article on uptake at all.

Also - the decline hasn't stalled (which implies no decline) it has reducing in rate.

e.g. June 2017 - smoking rate amongst 18-24 was 25%, by March 2020 that had reduced to 18%, so a decline of approx. 2.5% per year.
April 2020 - smoking rate amongst 18-24 was 25%, by Aug 2022 that had reduced to 22.5%, so a decline of approx. 1.1% per year.

But the post-pandemic trend is still a reduction.

Stalled is an interpretative word for a slowed declune. You can argue about whether that applies but it's not sonething you can definitively show by the data either way.

[ProfessorDavey]

Stalled is an interpretative word for a slowed declune. You can argue about whether that applies but it's not sonething you can definitively show by the data either way.

No it isn't - Stalled 'cause to stop or stop making progress'

If a decline has stalled the implication is that there is no longer a decline, not that there remains a decline, but at a slower rate.

[SteveH]

I stopped pipe-smoking a year or so ago. I didn't intend to; I just ran out of baccy, and kept not getting round to buying any more (which demonstrates that pipe smoking, unlike cigarette smoking, is not addictive, because you don't inhale). In the light of these statistics, I may start again, out of sheer bloody-mindedness.

[jeremyp]

Stalled is an interpretative word for a slowed declune. You can argue about whether that applies but it's not sonething you can definitively show by the data either way.

"Stalled" to me means not moving. "Slowed" and "stalled" are not the same thing.

But, looking at PD's link, I have to agree with him. The article - or the headline - is misleading.

[jeremyp]

I stopped pipe-smoking a year or so ago. I didn't intend to; I just ran out of baccy, and kept not getting round to buying any more (which demonstrates that pipe smoking, unlike cigarette smoking, is not addictive, because you don't inhale). In the light of these statistics, I may start again, out of sheer bloody-mindedness.

For me, cigarette smoking was not addictive because I never learned to inhale.

[SqueakyVoice]

Interesting. I thought young people all did vaping these days.

The Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids claims companies are using “aggressive” tactics and that posts promoting smoking alternative nicotine and tobacco products had been viewed more than 3.4bn times across social media platforms.

I suspect using the term "e" make them sound 'safer and cleaner, a bit like 'e bikes  and cars'.

[SqueakyVoice]

I knew I'd seen this headline somewhere, so I looked it up...

The Conservatives have defended accepting a donation from the chief executive of a company accused of marketing vapes to children.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66750824

[SteveH]

I suspect using the term "e" make them sound 'safer and cleaner, a bit like 'e bikes  and cars'.

E bah gum!

[SqueakyVoice]

E bah gum!

Tha can E gum as much as tha wans, but I'll tell the this fur nowt, as les thas not cum up wi edrinkin. As the eh then, nah.