UK election 2024

[Nearly Sane]

Given the timings, while in theory the election could be delayed to 2025, it won't be. So starting this, and stickying, with the return, if only for a brief appearance one hopes, of Dominic Cummings.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67851985

[jeremyp]

Given the timings, while in theory the election could be delayed to 2025, it won't be. So starting this, and stickying, with the return, if only for a brief appearance one hopes, of Dominic Cummings.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67851985

Can you imagine what it would be like to have an election campaign over Christmas, which is what we'd get if the government left it as late as possible.

My mother thinks May. I think October. I hope she is right.

[Nearly Sane]

Can you imagine what it would be like to have an election campaign over Christmas, which is what we'd get if the government left it as late as possible.

My mother thinks May. I think October. I hope she is right.

Given that Sunak has so little sense as to get Cummings in and expect him not to blab, I'm not ruling out Christmas Day.

On balance it feels to me that October is what will happen but I wonder whether part of the Tories and Sunak will just  want to get it over with. 

[Aruntraveller]

Article on the difficulties and choices Sunak faces:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/31/eve-of-election-year-rishi-sunak-faces-dilemma

[Nearly Sane]

Article on the difficulties and choices Sunak faces:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/31/eve-of-election-year-rishi-sunak-faces-dilemma

The question that stands out to me is what is Sunak working hard for? When he does call an election, what does even the meagrest vision look like? Stopping the boats is bately a hint of a policy.

ETA - I don't feel much warmer about Starmer but at least he isn't the actual Tories.

[Gordon]

I suppose a lot might depend on just how the Rwanda thing pans out when the circus resumes: if the infighting is intense it may be that Sunak would be well advised to call an election simply to put an end to the saga.

A chap I know tells me that in the rush to legislate the UK government have neglected to consult with the Scottish Parliament and that there are aspects of the planned legislation that could conflict with Scots Law and raise more issues - I've no idea how accurate this view is, but the Tory government is in such as mess now that nothing would surprise me any more. 

[Nearly Sane]

Apparently Starmer is going to say that everyone should be excited because Labour are really different but not give any policies. And given the continual paring of any policies last year, it seems an odd approach. The trying to avoid upsetting the horses approach is a perfectly valud one but it will not get people excited, and I would think that the conflict between the two messages isn't useful, and may be a problem.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67878342

[Nearly Sane]

Sunak indicates second half of year

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67883242

[Nearly Sane]

'Big difference between Labour and Tories, says Sir Keir Starmer'

It would be easier to believe if when

'asked if Labour would overturn any cut to inheritance tax if the party wins power' he had said 'yes' and not  "I don't believe in tax breaks for those who are already well-off when there's nothing on offer for working people."


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67880324

[Nearly Sane]

So Reeves is an idiot, and Sunak a liar, or vice versa, or both


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67892958

[SqueakyVoice]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/08/alok-sharma-i-wont-back-uk-government-oil-and-gas-bill

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/08/centrist-tories-reject-mps-claim-party-must-shift-to-the-right

The tories need to make their mind up. It's either one argument or another. They can't have both.

[Nearly Sane]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/08/alok-sharma-i-wont-back-uk-government-oil-and-gas-bill

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/08/centrist-tories-reject-mps-claim-party-must-shift-to-the-right

The tories need to make their mind up. It's either one argument or another. They can't have both.

The thing is there currently at least 2 Tory parties if not more, so having both is pretty much what they are going to do till the election. I'm not sure Sunak is in either party, or indeed is really political in that sense.

[Nearly Sane]

Boundary changes effect on swing needed for Labour majority


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67361138

[Nearly Sane]

While the Tory Party indulge in internecine strife, the Labour Party unleashes its bible on how to tell the country that it's ready to think about telling the country what it's considering, in the fullness of time going to do after all other considerations are looked at.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67993311

[SteveH]

While the Tory Party indulge in internecine strife, the Labour Party unleashes its bible on how to tell the country that it's ready to think about telling the country what it's considering, in the fullness of time going to do after all other considerations are looked at.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67993311

Cor! Isn't Angela Rayner tall?

[Nearly Sane]

Cor! Isn't Angela Rayner tall?

As good an election slogan as any of the others so far.

[Aruntraveller]

As good an election slogan as any of the others so far.

And do you know she crosses her legs.

[Nearly Sane]

And do you know she crosses her legs.

To be fair, that was one of the few times Johnson dealt with the idiocy sensibly.

[Aruntraveller]

To be fair, that was one of the few times Johnson dealt with the idiocy sensibly.

I don't recall that. That may be due to an automatic assumption I make that if his mouth is open then he is lying. Always best to err on the side of caution.

Edit: having looked back at this in the press, he did, indeed react sensibly. I can only put it down to the "stopped clock" premise.

[SteveH]

Actually, she's 5'6", which is only average, and KS is 5'8.5". She probably looks taller than him because she's a few feet in front of him, and the camera angle is low.

[SteveH]

I can't help feeling that it might all go horribly wrong come the election. In 1997, Labour only had a fairly slim Tory majority to overturn, but this time round, the Tory majority is huge - as has been pointed out by various commentators, but which everyone is ignoring.

[Aruntraveller]

I can't help feeling that it might all go horribly wrong come the election. In 1997, Labour only had a fairly slim Tory majority to overturn, but this time round, the Tory majority is huge - as has been pointed out by various commentators, but which everyone is ignoring.

I agree and something is going on underneath the radar so to speak.

I was at my usual Monday morning coffee group (gay old codgers against the world) and the discussion veered into politics - it is usually skimmed over, but not this time. I was surprised and dismayed at the reach that GBNews has gained with 3 of the group preferring it to other news outlets. Interestingly the three also said that all parties were the same and they didn't know who to vote for. I'm afraid I launched into a bit of a tirade about them being indoctrinated by false news and billionaires. I didn't win any friends that particular morning. I did say something about "useful idiots" at one point. Still, I did feel better

[Nearly Sane]

I agree and something is going on underneath the radar so to speak.

I was at my usual Monday morning coffee group (gay old codgers against the world) and the discussion veered into politics - it is usually skimmed over, but not this time. I was surprised and dismayed at the reach that GBNews has gained with 3 of the group preferring it to other news outlets. Interestingly the three also said that all parties were the same and they didn't know who to vote for. I'm afraid I launched into a bit of a tirade about them being indoctrinated by false news and billionaires. I didn't win any friends that particular morning. I did say something about "useful idiots" at one point. Still, I did feel better

The % that both Reform and Greem are polling are unrealistic. Both of which are to an extent protest 'votes'. The question will be whether these go to other parties, and which do they go to. I think there is no doubt that the polls are currently a bit flaky but it's more that it's still a phony war.

Those who say parties are all the same are surely just different takes on pretty much what we all think here. No one's rushing out to vote Labour because of the sunlit uplands, rather that there is a chance they may not be irredeemably shite.


I'll only vote for a candidate who will stand up for women's sex based spaces, and isn't a Tory or worse. It may be that I  end up spoiling my ballot paper as I did in the Holyrood electiion. In terms of the seat, it won't make a lot of difference as it's very likely to go Labour from SNP. I'm in a seat that will disappear at the GE just to make me feel even more disasaociated from it.

[ProfessorDavey]

I can't help feeling that it might all go horribly wrong come the election. In 1997, Labour only had a fairly slim Tory majority to overturn, but this time round, the Tory majority is huge - as has been pointed out by various commentators, but which everyone is ignoring.

Depends on where you ask.

On the political blogs I follow the notion that Labour need a huge swing to overturn the Tory majority and win a majority of their own isn't ignored at all. Nope it is completely baked into the conversation.

But this is against a baseline of 2019 and that was a bizarre snap election effectively on a single issue (and a Boris or Corbyn personality battle), neither of which are in play any more. So I think people should be careful in assuming this to be the obvious baseline given that it threw up seats going Tory that had never done before in anyone's lifetime and which had otherwise been solidly Labour - so the Tory support was a mile wide, but in many places an inch thick.

So perhaps a better baseline is actually 2017 (the 2017 to 2019 Boris/Brexit shift had surely unwound prior to the most recent Labour surge and Tory slump). So although Labour do need to flip more seats than in any election in living memory many of those with be 2019 flipped seats without any long-range heritage of being Tory, nor seats where the likes of Sunak will be a positive.

[jeremyp]

Cor! Isn't Angela Rayner tall?

https://youtu.be/MMiKyfd6hA0?si=VVLCg2VI14axVBQT