Author Topic: UK election 2024  (Read 28857 times)

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #800 on: July 05, 2024, 01:00:14 PM »
NS - I note you have quietly side stepped my comment on how disastrous the SNP's night was - arguably far worse than for the tories.

The tories lost 67% of their seats, but the SNP have lost (one seat to go) pretty well 80% of their seats.
No, it just wasn't relevant to the point. I'm surprised that the vote held up to 30%. I was hoping it would fall lower. I did like SNP beating Douglas Ross but that was because it was Douglas Ross.

I'd be hoping thar the Lib Dems get the Inverness Skye and Ross shire seat as a nod to Charles Kennedy as far as the redrawn ones go.



Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #801 on: July 05, 2024, 01:06:12 PM »
Jeremy Hunt zooming up the Tory leader odds

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #802 on: July 05, 2024, 01:09:35 PM »
Hmm...

2017 - Corbyn  - 12,877,918 votes - 260 MPs
2019 - Corbyn  -  10,269,051 votes - 202 MPs
2024 - Starmer -    9,686,329 votes - 412 MPs

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #803 on: July 05, 2024, 01:34:08 PM »
Just to illustrate my point about the incredible level of targeting and efficiency of the Labour and LibDem votes, if you take the vote share from last night and assume a uniform national swing - i.e. no targeting, you get the following seat prediction.

Labour 297
Con 243
LD 32
SNP 53

So the targeting and efficiency of voting more than doubled LD seats, increased Labour seats by 40% while halving the tories seats ... and let's no go there on the SNP.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #804 on: July 05, 2024, 01:36:51 PM »
Just to illustrate my point about the incredible level of targeting and efficiency of the Labour and LibDem votes, if you take the vote share from last night and assume a uniform national swing - i.e. no targeting, you get the following seat prediction.

Labour 297
Con 243
LD 32
SNP 53

So the targeting and efficiency of voting more than doubled LD seats, increased Labour seats by 40% while halving the tories seats ... and let's no go there on the SNP.


Yes, let's not go there on the SNP seats since that seems to be assuming that they are standing in England and Wales in some weird way, or something just odd 


ETA 30% of the votes aren't going to get you 53 of 57 seats in Scotland. And not sure what you would be applying elsewhere so that can't be right either. Do you mean 23?
« Last Edit: July 05, 2024, 01:41:47 PM by Nearly Sane »

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #805 on: July 05, 2024, 01:39:43 PM »
Hmm...

2017 - Corbyn  - 12,877,918 votes - 260 MPs
2019 - Corbyn  -  10,269,051 votes - 202 MPs
2024 - Starmer -    9,686,329 votes - 412 MPs
I'm not really sure what your point is - whether or not you agree with it, we currently have a FPTP system and you you win or lose an election on the basis of those rules. And Corbyn lost in 2017 and lost again 2019. And you also can't really criticise a party if they look at the rules and decide to run a campaign on the basis of doing the best they could do under those rule (which is exactly what Labour and the LibDems did last night - see my previous post on targeting and efficiency of vote for them).

If you don't like the rules (I don't and I voted for AV in the referendum) then you should campaign to change them. What I find really disingenuous is a whole pile of tories who suddenly think FPTP is unfair, but were perfectly happy with it when it resulted in tory victories on a third of the vote.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #806 on: July 05, 2024, 01:41:17 PM »


Yes, let's not go there on the SNP seats since that seems to be assuming that they are standing in England and Wales in some weird way.
No it doesn't - it assumes a UK wide level of swing occurred to the same degree in every constituency.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #807 on: July 05, 2024, 01:43:58 PM »
I'm not really sure what your point is - whether or not you agree with it, we currently have a FPTP system and you you win or lose an election on the basis of those rules. And Corbyn lost in 2017 and lost again 2019. And you also can't really criticise a party if they look at the rules and decide to run a campaign on the basis of doing the best they could do under those rule (which is exactly what Labour and the LibDems did last night - see my previous post on targeting and efficiency of vote for them).

If you don't like the rules (I don't and I voted for AV in the referendum) then you should campaign to change them. What I find really disingenuous is a whole pile of tories who suddenly think FPTP is unfair, but were perfectly happy with it when it resulted in tory victories on a third of the vote.
The point is there is a democratic deficit and those numbers don't show a coming together of the country. I've campaigned for PR all my adult life so I agree with the talk of disingenuous by some though it's irrelevant to whether there is an issue.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #808 on: July 05, 2024, 01:51:00 PM »
No it doesn't - it assumes a UK wide level of swing occurred to the same degree in every constituency.
See what I added. There are 57 seats in Scotland how do the SNP get 53 on 30% of the vote? Did you mean 23? Or something else?

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #809 on: July 05, 2024, 01:51:03 PM »
The point is there is a democratic deficit and those numbers don't show a coming together of the country. I've campaigned for PR all my adult life so I agree with the talk of disingenuous by some though it's irrelevant to whether there is an issue.
I agree - you can't just decide you like a system when you win under it and then decide it is unfair when you lose under it.

But you also cannot just look at result under FPTP and presume what that would be under PR - because if we had PR we would likely have more and different parties and people wouldn't vote in the same way that they do under FPTP.

It will be interesting to see whether yesterday's result drives a ground swell of support for a change in the voting system. And whether that will gain traction in the various parties.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #810 on: July 05, 2024, 01:54:30 PM »
See what I added. There are 57 seats in Scotland how do the SNP get 53 on 30% of the vote? Did you mean 23? Or something else?
The data come from here.

https://x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1809141596216087018

See comments on Scotland.

It is perfectly possible to win 53 seats, or even 57 seats on 30% of the vote - it just requires all the other parties to vote slightly less than you.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #811 on: July 05, 2024, 01:56:11 PM »
I agree - you can't just decide you like a system when you win under it and then decide it is unfair when you lose under it.

But you also cannot just look at result under FPTP and presume what that would be under PR - because if we had PR we would likely have more and different parties and people wouldn't vote in the same way that they do under FPTP.

It will be interesting to see whether yesterday's result drives a ground swell of support for a change in the voting system. And whether that will gain traction in the various parties.
People get to change their minds. I've known lots of people who see a result and rethink.

The point that you ignored is that the Labour vote is not about a vote FOR change, or a coming together of the country.

I doubt the Labour Party are going to want to fiddle about with the voting system.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #812 on: July 05, 2024, 01:57:51 PM »
And this on Labour's targeting and efficiency of the vote.

https://x.com/mattholehouse/status/1809118506450911731/photo/1

So Labour's result last night is the most efficient by any party in any general election since 1983 (and I image well before that too although the data only goes back to 83).

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #813 on: July 05, 2024, 02:01:02 PM »
The point that you ignored is that the Labour vote is not about a vote FOR change, or a coming together of the country.
We cannot judge that yet - we will see whether this is the case in the months and years ahead.

But specifically on 'coming together of the country' - for the first time in a very, very long time we will have a governing party in Westminster that won the general election not just across the UK, but also won the election in England, and in Scotland and in Wales.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #814 on: July 05, 2024, 02:01:43 PM »
The data come from here.

https://x.com/Dylan_Difford/status/1809141596216087018

See comments on Scotland.

It is perfectly possible to win 53 seats, or even 57 seats on 30% of the vote - it just requires all the other parties to vote slightly less than you.
I think that's then using a set of figures which doesn't illustrate your point bur rather an issue about the idea of universal swing. Otherwise you would seem to have suggested that the SNP should be disappointed not getting 53 seats out of 57 on 30% of the vote.

I'd also like to see how if the Labour Party get 36% I'm those seats it's possible for that split to happen.


You also haven't by using the figures shown any connection between thar it was all down to targeting, and not people voting Tories put, or voting for Reform.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #815 on: July 05, 2024, 02:03:33 PM »
We cannot judge that yet - we will see whether this is the case in the months and years ahead.

But specifically on 'coming together of the country' - for the first time in a very, very long time we will have a governing party in Westminster that won the general election not just across the UK, but also have the largest number of seats in England, and in Scotland and in Wales.
On just over a third of the vote but you seem to be cheering that today which seems exactly as disingenuous as a Tory new recruit to PR.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #816 on: July 05, 2024, 02:07:39 PM »
I'd also like to see how if the Labour Party get 36% I'm those seats it's possible for that split to happen.
Because in Scotland in 2019 Labour got just 18% of the vote and if you then apply a UNS on change in UK vote share from 2019-2024, that is just +1.6% for Labour so they'd end up with a ~20% vote share in Scotland.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #817 on: July 05, 2024, 02:12:53 PM »
Because in Scotland in 2019 Labour got just 18% of the vote and if you then apply a UNS on change in UK vote share from 2019-2024, that is just +1.6% for Labour so they'd end up with a ~20% vote share in Scotland.
So you are suggesting that the 16% of the Labour Party swing was to do with 'targetting'? Very funny. Anyway let's agree to hope for a better outcome than the last years, and I'll buy you and Starmer a virtual drink of good luck.

Roses

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #818 on: July 05, 2024, 02:43:18 PM »
If Starmer meant and acts upon what he said in his speech to the nation, after being formerly declared Prime Minister by The King, he is the right man for the job.
"At the going down of the sun and in the morning we will remember them."

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #819 on: July 05, 2024, 03:03:45 PM »
If Starmer meant and acts upon what he said in his speech to the nation, after being formerly declared Prime Minister by The King, he is the right man for the job.
I don't disagree but most of the leaders of main parties might well have said similarly and to act similarly. Indeed, I'm pretty sure Sunak said many of the same things, and leaving aside the distraction of Rwanda used to deal with the bogeyman of Reform, would not really have been trying much different.


He needs luck. He needs some patience from the electorate as nothing is a quick change. I will say that during all of the talk of volatility in the electorate it may give him sometime since the volatility was after the worst govt my life, and 14 years of Tory govt.


I hope that the large majority might allow them to reach put a bit. I wouldn't mind if they appointed Ed Davey onto care in some way. I think they should look at getting agreement with other parties on a way of working with Europe, and they could look to doing some working together on the constitution with the other parties. It might well be worth looking at how England gets represented in terms of a reformed devolved settlement which might address some of the Reform voters concerned, and that might include a loom at voting.

I'd also talk to the opposition parties about how the parliament works with PM questions, committees, work structure. As a small point, I'd have all the subsidy on drinks, and tl an extent food, in the HoP removed.



« Last Edit: July 05, 2024, 03:11:48 PM by Nearly Sane »

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #820 on: July 05, 2024, 04:57:01 PM »
The most disproportionate election ever - though not for the Lib Dems.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c886pl6ldy9o

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #821 on: July 05, 2024, 05:41:49 PM »
Neil Kinnock on Galloway from this morning

https://twitter.com/willblackwriter/status/1809201830942978364
« Last Edit: July 05, 2024, 05:55:46 PM by Nearly Sane »

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #822 on: July 05, 2024, 06:43:33 PM »
5th MP for Reform

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #823 on: July 05, 2024, 06:45:11 PM »
Diane Abbott 'Mother of the House'

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #824 on: July 05, 2024, 07:54:30 PM »
No, it just wasn't relevant to the point. I'm surprised that the vote held up to 30%. I was hoping it would fall lower. I did like SNP beating Douglas Ross but that was because it was Douglas Ross.

I'd be hoping thar the Lib Dems get the Inverness Skye and Ross shire seat as a nod to Charles Kennedy as far as the redrawn ones go.
And looks as if they will get it.