Author Topic: UK election 2024  (Read 34951 times)

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #75 on: February 27, 2024, 09:42:34 AM »
Good coverage of the election in Scotland from FT


https://archive.vn/QDpph

Aruntraveller

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #76 on: March 10, 2024, 06:44:59 PM »
So this is now being floated as a possibility:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13177923/MPs-want-Boris-European-referendum-General-Election-quit-ECHR.html

I know they are desperate but c'mon chaps.....

I wouldn't have thought the necessary legislation would get passed to make the referendum happen in time.

Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #77 on: March 10, 2024, 06:49:35 PM »
So this is now being floated as a possibility:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13177923/MPs-want-Boris-European-referendum-General-Election-quit-ECHR.html

I know they are desperate but c'mon chaps.....

I wouldn't have thought the necessary legislation would get passed to make the referendum happen in time.
Spafftastic


Mail reports conversation of some drugged up Tory wankers (as usual)


SteveH

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #78 on: March 10, 2024, 09:16:05 PM »
So this is now being floated as a possibility:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13177923/MPs-want-Boris-European-referendum-General-Election-quit-ECHR.html

I know they are desperate but c'mon chaps.....

I wouldn't have thought the necessary legislation would get passed to make the referendum happen in time.
I'd've thought they'd be avoiding any controversial legislation between now and the GE.
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jeremyp

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #79 on: March 11, 2024, 09:49:24 AM »
I'd've thought they'd be avoiding any controversial legislation between now and the GE.

Electoral Calculus are currently predicting that the Tories will get 113 seats at the next general election with a maximum of 249. The Tories divide into two camps, in my opinion: those who are absolutely desperate and will try anything and those who know they are going to lose and are just trying to wreck everything for Labour. Either way, this doesn't surprise me.
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Aruntraveller

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #80 on: March 11, 2024, 10:47:15 AM »
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Aruntraveller

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #81 on: March 11, 2024, 11:00:51 AM »
A note of side interest is that in 2020 Lee Anderson voted for the Recall of MPs (Change of Party Affiliation) Bill - which requires an MP to call a by-election if they defect.

Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

SteveH

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #82 on: March 13, 2024, 09:23:56 AM »
A note of side interest is that in 2020 Lee Anderson voted for the Recall of MPs (Change of Party Affiliation) Bill - which requires an MP to call a by-election if they defect.
He could, I suppose, argue that it's not worth it this close to a GE.
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Aruntraveller

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #83 on: March 13, 2024, 09:25:03 AM »
He could, I suppose, argue that it's not worth it this close to a GE.

That is the very argument he and Tice made subsequently.
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #84 on: March 16, 2024, 12:10:28 PM »
'Election is a straight fight between SNP and Tories - Yousaf'

Doesn't seem a completely accurate summation but even with the more detailed version it's bollocks.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-68580909

Gordon

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #85 on: March 16, 2024, 03:04:40 PM »
According to a report in the Daily Andrex (aka Daily Mail) there are rumblings of a plot to replace Sunak with Mordaunt before the next GE. Should such a thing seem likely I wonder if Sunak, if he thought he would lose a vote of confidence, would immediately call a GE rather than be ousted - we can always hope.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #86 on: March 16, 2024, 03:28:03 PM »
According to a report in the Daily Andrex (aka Daily Mail) there are rumblings of a plot to replace Sunak with Mordaunt before the next GE. Should such a thing seem likely I wonder if Sunak, if he thought he would lose a vote of confidence, would immediately call a GE rather than be ousted - we can always hope.
I almost want them to do it for the melodrama but ffs!

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #87 on: March 17, 2024, 05:50:20 PM »
Good article on the Tories' problems. They are going to struggle to have a clear message in the GE because they don't have one, and they are not going to agree on one.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/17/our-chances-zero-and-getting-worse-inside-a-tory-edeath-spiral
« Last Edit: March 17, 2024, 08:02:14 PM by Nearly Sane »

jeremyp

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #88 on: March 18, 2024, 08:52:38 AM »
Good article on the Tories' problems. They are going to struggle to have a clear message in the GE because they don't have one, and they are not going to agree on one.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/17/our-chances-zero-and-getting-worse-inside-a-tory-edeath-spiral

I don't think it's that good an article. Look at this mess, for example:

Quote
... the chancellor had thrown another 2p cut in national insurance at working people, in the desperate hope of improving the national mood and the Tories’ electoral prospects.

But the post-budget polls quickly showed most people had clocked that the overall effect of Hunt’s measures – one of which was to freeze income-tax thresholds again – would actually be to put taxes up, and that the spending cuts necessary to fund them would hit public services.

So the Guardian seems to think you need spending cuts to fund tax rises. What?

Actually, in  a sense, it does exemplify the Tories problems. People both believe the Tories are cutting services to the bone and are putting taxes up, but it's still a shit piece of writing.

This is also interesting (not for bad writing):

Quote
[Another ex-cabinet minister – also from the right of the party said] There were two possibilities for the Tories to drag themselves back from the brink... One was for Rishi Sunak to be bolder and abandon more green policies while also abolishing inheritance tax. “But he won’t do that,” he added. “He is just too cautious.”

I think this shows a profound misunderstanding of the electorate. I think the majority of people, if they don't like the personal inconveniences green policies bring, are for them in principle. And I suspect that almost everybody thinks that inheritance tax cuts would be designed to benefit only the rich i.e. Tory members and their supporters. The message given out by such a measure would be bad for the Tories.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #89 on: March 20, 2024, 11:59:20 AM »
Did a YouGov survey this morning, at the 3nd or it were a couple of quick questions where they give you the results so far on the info they've gathered. One of the questions was How united or divided was the Tory Party. Apparently 2% think it is very united.


jeremyp

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #90 on: March 20, 2024, 12:41:21 PM »
Did a YouGov survey this morning, at the 3nd or it were a couple of quick questions where they give you the results so far on the info they've gathered. One of the questions was How united or divided was the Tory Party. Apparently 2% think it is very united.

Those were the people that misread "united" as "untied".

Anyway, got my polling card for the May elections for Bristol City Council and the Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Commissioner.

On the whole I'd rather we didn't have somebody whose job is to commission crime.

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Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #91 on: March 24, 2024, 11:16:42 AM »
Interesting Sunday Politics show this morning. I do prefer Kuenssberg version to the Marr programme. Good performance generally from Jeremy Hunt though the £100k not being a great salary soundbite won't go away, and I suspect he went a bit Malcolm Tucker when he heard Andrea Leadsom say the cost of living crisis was over. Annaliese Dodds's equivocation on the Waspi women compensation, where she appeared to blame the electorate for not voting Labour, wasn't great. The contrast between the two on the triode lock on pensions, while effectively a planned ambush by Hunt, didn't look good.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001xpll/sunday-with-laura-kuenssberg-24032024
« Last Edit: March 24, 2024, 12:06:28 PM by Nearly Sane »

jeremyp

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #92 on: March 25, 2024, 08:53:48 AM »
The triple lock has really got to go. All it does is ratchet up state pensions relative to everything else, no matter what.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #93 on: March 25, 2024, 09:02:55 AM »
The triple lock has really got to go. All it does is ratchet up state pensions relative to everything else, no matter what.
I'd be interested in seeing some modelling of the costs against what it would have been if you removed different elements of the lock - which happened anyway with wage inflation during Covid, so it's not a complete lock.

Linking it to inflation seems the most sensible.

Aruntraveller

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #94 on: March 25, 2024, 09:09:45 AM »
I agree the Triple lock has got to go, but on a rare note of agreement with Hunt he did point out that it had helped raise pensioners out of poverty. Although it is difficult to do exact comparisons with other pensions across Europe we do tend towards the lower end of provision.

I'm not sure what can be done short term to solve that issue as the money is lacking for increases that would bring us in line with even the middle of the table.

This article illustrates the difficulties of making direct comparisons:

https://www.pensiontimes.co.uk/pensions-retirement/state-pension/uk-state-pension-compare-countries

Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #95 on: March 28, 2024, 12:30:56 PM »
To the barricades of levelling up, citizens.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68683454

jeremyp

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #96 on: April 04, 2024, 05:44:25 PM »
Just went along to Electoral Calculus.

They currently predict 90 Conservative seats (min 23, max 214) based on polling up to March 28th.

The current issues seem to be mostly because Reform UK is eating into their vote, unfortunately.

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Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #97 on: April 04, 2024, 05:52:12 PM »
Just went along to Electoral Calculus.

They currently predict 90 Conservative seats (min 23, max 214) based on polling up to March 28th.

The current issues seem to be mostly because Reform UK is eating into their vote, unfortunately.
I take it that the 2nd Green seat it predicts is the one in Bristol you are in?

jeremyp

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #98 on: April 05, 2024, 09:21:31 AM »
I take it that the 2nd Green seat it predicts is the one in Bristol you are in?

Yes it is. I live in Bristol  Central.
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jeremyp

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #99 on: April 05, 2024, 09:23:59 AM »
Yes it is. I live in Bristol  Central.

Part of the problem is that Bristol City Council, which is majority Labour, has a very poor reputation.
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