Author Topic: UK election 2024 (Read 29276 times)

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #250 on:** May 30, 2024, 11:30:51 AM »

Quote from: Aruntraveller on May 30, 2024, 11:22:41 AM

Cheer up - it's only five weeks.

Hurrah

SteveH · « **Reply #251 on:** May 30, 2024, 11:41:00 AM »

I think I'll vote with my heart, and go Green. They're the only party that honestly says they would raise taxes, which is necessary to fund the NHS and other essentials. Closing loopholes is all very well, but more is needed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/30/labour-to-face-fresh-attack-from-green-party-in-key-seats-in-election

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #252 on:** May 30, 2024, 11:54:07 AM »

Quote from: SteveH on May 30, 2024, 11:41:00 AM

I think I'll vote with my heart, and go Green. They're the only party that honestly says they would raise taxes, which is necessary to fund the NHS and other essentials. Closing loopholes is all very well, but more is needed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/30/labour-to-face-fresh-attack-from-green-party-in-key-seats-in-election

Given their anti women policies, and desire to allow medical experimentation on children because of the anti scientific religion of gender, it's a no from me.

jeremyp · « **Reply #253 on:** May 30, 2024, 12:42:06 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on May 30, 2024, 11:12:57 AM

Can't believe there's another six weeks of this shite.

I assume you are talking about the election campaign, not the article, which I found entertaining.

Just checked Electoral Calculus

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

The probability section is interesting. They are no longer even citing Tory prospects.

SteveH · « **Reply #254 on:** May 30, 2024, 12:49:47 PM »

The gap may narrow as we approach July 4th, but the Tories are certainly in for a well-deserved hiding.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #255 on:** May 30, 2024, 12:53:06 PM »

Quote from: jeremyp on May 30, 2024, 12:42:06 PM

I assume you are talking about the election campaign, not the article, which I found entertaining.

Just checked Electoral Calculus

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

The probability section is interesting. They are no longer even citing Tory prospects.

Yep, the election campaign and these highly choreographed, deeply pointless wittering appearances.

I suppose the lack of movement in the polls after the election was announced removed a known unknown and now it looks impossible for the Tories to have chances. Now it's only the unknown unknowns that can help them.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #256 on:** May 30, 2024, 01:54:11 PM »

More on the 'cull of left wingers'. It's really difficult to work out what, if any, effect this will have on voting. My feeling is other than in specific constituencies very little.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv22n56e3z6o

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #257 on:** May 30, 2024, 02:48:58 PM »

"Faisal Islam: Election tax row is a phony war" - good article on the issue of fiscal drag by not raising tax thresholds.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw55vxlyd29o

jeremyp · « **Reply #258 on:** May 30, 2024, 03:49:39 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on May 30, 2024, 12:53:06 PM

Yep, the election campaign and these highly choreographed, deeply pointless wittering appearances.

I suppose the lack of movement in the polls after the election was announced removed a known unknown and now it looks impossible for the Tories to have chances. Now it's only the unknown unknowns that can help them.

I think the polls will turn out to be a bit optimistic (for Labour) because people tend to lie a little bit if they are planning to vote for an unpopular party. However, I can't see the Tories not getting as jolly good trouncing.

SteveH · « **Reply #259 on:** May 30, 2024, 04:00:14 PM »

Quote from: jeremyp on May 30, 2024, 03:49:39 PM

I think the polls will turn out to be a bit optimistic (for Labour) because people tend to lie a little bit if they are planning to vote for an unpopular party. However, I can't see the Tories not getting as jolly good trouncing.

Indeed - the so-called "shy Tory syndrome".

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #260 on:** May 30, 2024, 04:44:00 PM »

Quote from: SteveH on May 30, 2024, 04:00:14 PM

Indeed - the so-called "shy Tory syndrome".

Over on politicalbetting.com there is a lot of discussion of the methodology of the various pollsters and how they deal with (or don't deal with) those who say don't know. The pollsters that reallocate typically show smaller leads as the reallocation is largely to the tories from 2019 tory voters.

But I think pollsters have a real problem if they baseline everything on the 2019 election as that was such a weird, one issue (plus Boris vs Corbyn) election. So to presume that 2019 tory voters are somehow 'historically' tory and even though they may say 'don't know' at the moment many will fold back into the tories seems a tad naive. We know that a considerable number of 2019 tory voters were either first time tories or were typical non-voters. Hence the red wall falling. Will these voters 'fold back' into voting tory (as they did in 2019) or 'fold back' into not voting or voting labour as they likely did in 2017, 2015 etc?

To my mind 2017 is maybe a better baseline to use as a starting point for consideration of the 2024 predictions than 2019.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #261 on:** May 30, 2024, 06:19:50 PM »

Retiring Tory MP backs Labour and says he would think about standing for them. Tory party kick into smear mode - and who knows they might be right about him asking for a peerage but not exactly the advert for unity they would be hoping for.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd11kvk1je4o

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #262 on:** May 31, 2024, 08:15:23 AM »

"'Labour pledges clean power push 'within months'' - interesting that this exposes one of the gaps between the SNP and the Greens.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9xxpypr8d0o

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #263 on:** May 31, 2024, 09:48:59 AM »

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #264 on:** May 31, 2024, 11:27:38 AM »

'Fly-tippers to get points on driving licence, Tories promise' - bringing out the big political promises now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cedd9l00leyo

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #265 on:** May 31, 2024, 03:07:47 PM »

'Diane Abbott free to stand for Labour, says Starmer' and yet for all this week people, including Starmer, have been stating it's up to the NEC and he doesn't control them. This may actually be the worst mess they could have made since it's passed off the left wing, who are celebrating, and this means it can be made to look like he caved by the Tories. Overall badly managed, but probably not significant enough to have a real effect.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy00npvpmzpo

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #266 on:** May 31, 2024, 04:09:03 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on May 31, 2024, 03:07:47 PM

'Diane Abbott free to stand for Labour, says Starmer' and yet for all this week people, including Starmer, have been stating it's up to the NEC and he doesn't control them. This may actually be the worst mess they could have made since it's passed off the left wing, who are celebrating, and this means it can be made to look like he caved by the Tories. Overall badly managed, but probably not significant enough to have a real effect.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy00npvpmzpo

I don't disagree that it has been badly managed, but I don't think there is contradiction. Since Abbott's suspension was revoked a few days ago she has been free to put herself forward to stand in Hackney for Labour (or for that matter in any other seat where the Labour candidate has not been confirmed). However my understanding is that at this point final decisions on who is selected to stand in a particular constituency from those who applied rests with the NEC, which isn't controlled by Starmer.

So he has been correct in saying that she hadn't been blocked - she can throw her hat into the ring and apply to be the candidate in Hackney, but the ultimate decision as to whether she is finally selected as candidate is for the NEC.

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #267 on:** May 31, 2024, 04:18:09 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on May 31, 2024, 11:27:38 AM

'Fly-tippers to get points on driving licence, Tories promise' - bringing out the big political promises now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cedd9l00leyo

Hmm ... and there was me thinking that there are already fines for fly tipping and the issue is that it is impossible to enforce due to it being very, very low priority for the police.

So it seems irrelevant whether the sanction for being caught is a fine or 3 points on your licence ... if you are never going to get caught in the first place.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #268 on:** May 31, 2024, 04:35:13 PM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on May 31, 2024, 04:18:09 PM

Hmm ... and there was me thinking that there are already fines for fly tipping and the issue is that it is impossible to enforce due to it being very, very low priority for the police.

So it seems irrelevant whether the sanction for being caught is a fine or 3 points on your licence ... if you are never going to get caught in the first place.

And even without that, not exactly a vision for Britain.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #269 on:** May 31, 2024, 04:36:10 PM »

Too misogynist for the Scottish Greens - high bar but this bloke managed it.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/6486604/sophie-molly-greens/

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #270 on:** May 31, 2024, 04:37:42 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on May 31, 2024, 04:35:13 PM

And even without that, not exactly a vision for Britain.

If someone proposed filling the potholes with the fly tipped rubbish then they'd really be on to something.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #271 on:** May 31, 2024, 04:39:55 PM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on May 31, 2024, 04:37:42 PM

If someone proposed filling the potholes with the fly tipped rubbish then they'd really be on to something.

Done by those on 'national service'?

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #272 on:** May 31, 2024, 05:37:13 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on May 31, 2024, 04:39:55 PM

Done by those on 'national service'?

Or as part of an apprenticeship rather than on a traditional university BSc in Pot-hole filling.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #273 on:** May 31, 2024, 08:05:40 PM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on May 31, 2024, 05:37:13 PM

Or as part of an apprenticeship rather than on a traditional university BSc in Pot-hole filling.

Surely that's a Ph.F

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #274 on:** June 01, 2024, 09:46:05 AM »

'Lib Dems aim to grab attention with campaign stunts' - makes a sort of sense but another 5 weeks of it may well become a bit grating. Even if they gain a few seats, if there's a big majority in the HoC they seem irrelevant.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c844p844eqxo

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Author Topic: UK election 2024 (Read 29276 times)