UK election 2024

[Nearly Sane]

Could the Tories be heading for a wipeout on the scale of the Canadian Conservatives in 1993? Probably not, but a chap can dream...

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/rishi-sunak-truth-canada-1993-080421361.html

I'm just hoping for lots of Portillo moments.

Perhaps we should compile a top ten list of those we might hope would lose. To be honest, top of my list isn't a Tory.

[Aruntraveller]

Galloway?

He's definitely one of mine.

[SteveH]

Top of my list is Mike Penning: not because he's an exceptionally bad MP for a Tory Brexiter, but because he's my Tory MP, and I'd like a Labour MP.

[SteveH]

Galloway?

Pretty sure he'll be out, replaced by Labour. Good riddance, but he's quite low on my list.

[Nearly Sane]

Galloway?

He's definitely one of mine.

Yep, lying, dangerous grifter.

[Aruntraveller]

Latest opinion poll from The Observer/Guardian:

Labour  45% – up four points on last weekend

Conservatives 25% - down 2.

Reform 11% up 1. 

Lib Dems  8% down 2.

Greens 6% down 1.

[Nearly Sane]

Was looking at Oddschecker for odds on individual constituencies, and going through them one of the ones I looked for was Rochdale, Gallowy's constituency but it doesn't appear. Now I haven't checked that all others are there but there is a great long list, and all the other 8 I looked for were there.

[Nearly Sane]

Hardly a surprise that Labour are talking about bringing down net migration but the lack of a target feels as if it's cowardice, and trying to be all things for all views.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn331vd99lzo

[jeremyp]

Why do the Lib Dems still exist? There's no real difference between them and the Labour centre-left, so why don't they merge with Labour, and stop splitting the Left-wing vote?

Much as everybody wants it to be, politics is not based on a single line. The Line Dems are not identical with any single part of Labour.  If a party can make a case for people to vote for it and actually get votes, it is not for you or anybody else to tell them they should not exist.

[jeremyp]

Latest opinion poll from The Observer/Guardian:

Labour  45% – up four points on last weekend

Conservatives 25% - down 2.

Reform 11% up 1. 

Lib Dems  8% down 2.

Greens 6% down 1.

Electoral Calculus predicts 66 seats for the Tories with a best case (from a Tory point of view) of 225 and a worst case of 37.

[Nearly Sane]

Much as everybody wants it to be, politics is not based on a single line. The Line Dems are not identical with any single part of Labour.  If a party can make a case for people to vote for it and actually get votes, it is not for you or anybody else to tell them they should not exist.

But it is for Steve or anyone to be able to say something like that in a democracy. He's not stopping them existing, he can't so I don't see the point of your comment.

[Nearly Sane]

Election fraud claims being reviewed by police - interesting.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1eewd5xgjgo

[jeremyp]

But it is for Steve or anyone to be able to say something like that in a democracy.

Of course he can say it. But it's a stupid thing to say

He's not stopping them existing,

But he is expressing a sentiment that they shouldn't.

I don't see the point of your comment.

To point out that trying to wish away a political party simply because you believe it is a duplication of effort  is a pointless exercise and probably a bit offensive to the members and supporters of that party.

[jeremyp]

Election fraud claims being reviewed by police - interesting.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1eewd5xgjgo

Well that was a stupid thing to do: put an advert out that is trying to mislead people into thinking you are from an opposition party.

[Nearly Sane]

Of course he can say it. But it's a stupid thing to say
But he is expressing a sentiment that they shouldn't.


To point out that trying to wish away a political party simply because you believe it is a duplication of effort  is a pointless exercise and probably a bit offensive to the members and supporters of that party.

And telling someone that they shouldn't say something because it may be offensive seems hypocritical.

[SteveH]

Election fraud claims being reviewed by police - interesting.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1eewd5xgjgo

Does this pillock really expect us to believe that Labour and Reform voters are abandoning their parties to vote for him, when in the rest of the country it's the other way round?

[SteveH]

Even Tories can't be wrong about everything, though they try damned hard to be.

[jeremyp]

And telling someone that they shouldn't say something because it may be offensive seems hypocritical.

Stop doing it then.

[Nearly Sane]

Stop doing it then.

I didn't, you have 

[Nearly Sane]

'TikTok users being fed misleading election news, BBC finds'. Have they found a media platform where this doesn't happen?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ww6vz1l81o

[SteveH]

This article in the Guardian shows that my constituency, Hemel Hempstead (which is significantly different from 2019, despite keeping the same name) is only Labour's 123rd most winnable seat, and will need a 26.8% swing to take it from the Tories. The Labour bloke, David Taylor, is putting in a huge campaigning effort, whereas the Tory, Jaymey McIvor, who is a local and county councillor in Essex and has no previous connection with Hemel Hempstead, seems to have given up - we've heard very little from him. Odd, since the seat is still holdable by the Tories, I'd've thought.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/feb/20/general-election-uk-opinion-polls-seats-tories-lose

[Nearly Sane]

This article in the Guardian shows that my constituency, Hemel Hempstead (which is significantly different from 2019, despite keeping the same name) is only Labour's 123rd most winnable seat, and will need a 26.8% swing to take it from the Tories. The Labour bloke, David Taylor, is putting in a huge campaigning effort, whereas the Tory, Jaymey McIvor, who is a local and county councillor in Essex and has no previous connection with Hemel Hempstead, seems to have given up - we've heard very little from him. Odd, since the seat is still holdable by the Tories, I'd've thought.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/feb/20/general-election-uk-opinion-polls-seats-tories-lose

If Labour take it, I will raise a glass to you on election morning

[ProfessorDavey]

This article in the Guardian shows that my constituency, Hemel Hempstead (which is significantly different from 2019, despite keeping the same name) is only Labour's 123rd most winnable seat, and will need a 26.8% swing to take it from the Tories. The Labour bloke, David Taylor, is putting in a huge campaigning effort, whereas the Tory, Jaymey McIvor, who is a local and county councillor in Essex and has no previous connection with Hemel Hempstead, seems to have given up - we've heard very little from him. Odd, since the seat is still holdable by the Tories, I'd've thought.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/feb/20/general-election-uk-opinion-polls-seats-tories-lose

I'm in the neighbouring constituency of St Albans - and this reminds me of 1997 when Labour took the seat from the Tories when it would way beyond their wildest expectations. I think there are some other similarities - in 1997 Peter Lilley (the sitting MP) did the chicken run to another constituency so there wasn't an incumbent standing, which often brings some level of personal support. The Tory in HH is also new with sitting MP Mike Penning not standing.

[Nearly Sane]

Farage to make 'emergency announcement'? Is he the new James Bond?

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/live/farage-announcement-latest-news-election-reform-uk-112621866.html

[Nearly Sane]

'Starmer says he is prepared to use nuclear weapons' - not exactly a surprise.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czvvy0ppdxko