UK election 2024

[ProfessorDavey]

Farage to make 'emergency announcement'? Is he the new James Bond?

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/live/farage-announcement-latest-news-election-reform-uk-112621866.html

Farage becomes ReformUK leader

[ProfessorDavey]

Farage becomes ReformUK leader

And he's standing in Clacton

[SteveH]

Farage becomes ReformUK leader

And standing for parliament. Hopefully, he'll suffer his eighth defeat.

[Nearly Sane]

'Greens furious over 'outrageous' STV debate exclusion', I agree with them but then I think these things are generally bollocks.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c511lgve271o

[Aruntraveller]

And he's standing in Clacton

I can't help thinking that a certain court ruling across the pond may have influenced this latest volte-face.

[Nearly Sane]

The differences on oil and gas production may well get the Tories a couple of extra seats. Very uninteresting debate generally.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0ddlkp9g9do

[Nearly Sane]

Laudable stuff from the Lib Dems but doesn't feel 'fully costed and funded' at all.

I'm getting extremely cynical about the idea of 'fully costed and funded' - not much more than some odd game where you pluck a figure from the air, pick a random possibility of where to get the money that may or may not be possible, and join them together.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmww3ne8wo

[Aruntraveller]

'fully costed and funded'

File alongside "laser-focussed"

[Nearly Sane]

Following on from Labour not putting a figure on immigration, and being attacked for it by the Tories, the Torues do the same.

Meanwhile Farage does put a figure on ot 'net zero' and declares that we will pull out of the ECHR which he continues, helped by the Tories, to elide with the EU.

[Nearly Sane]

Oh, and I see Cleverley when asked about whether the Tories will pull out from the ECHR says wait for the manifesto. Meanwhile we get a policy a day released into the wild. I'm inclined to a 'stay quiet' till you've published your manifesto rule as you end up talking about policy that you don't have the context for.

[Nearly Sane]

File alongside "laser-focussed"

If you got rid of them both then Rachel Reeves would be very quiet.

[jeremyp]

This article in the Guardian shows that my constituency, Hemel Hempstead (which is significantly different from 2019, despite keeping the same name) is only Labour's 123rd most winnable seat, and will need a 26.8% swing to take it from the Tories. The Labour bloke, David Taylor, is putting in a huge campaigning effort, whereas the Tory, Jaymey McIvor, who is a local and county councillor in Essex and has no previous connection with Hemel Hempstead, seems to have given up - we've heard very little from him. Odd, since the seat is still holdable by the Tories, I'd've thought.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/feb/20/general-election-uk-opinion-polls-seats-tories-lose

Electoral Calculus says there is an 80% chance it will go to Labour.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Hemel%20Hempstead

My constituency: Bristol Central, looks interesting. It's the one with Carla Denyer standing and the odds look good for her.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Bristol%20Central

I'm keeping all the election literature being posted through my door and, so far, only the Green Party and Labour have even bothered.

[jeremyp]

And he's standing in Clacton

That's interesting. Conservative and Labour are more or less neck and neck there. I suspect Farage will probably split the Tory vote and send the seat to Labour.

[Nearly Sane]

Electoral Calculus says there is an 80% chance it will go to Labour.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Hemel%20Hempstead

My constituency: Bristol Central, looks interesting. It's the one with Carla Denyer standing and the odds look good for her.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Bristol%20Central

I'm keeping all the election literature being posted through my door and, so far, only the Green Party and Labour have even bothered.

Having first gone to Oddschecker to see what chance of a Galloway moment and it not being there, I was triggered by your post to look on EC for it, and while it's there it doesn't seem to factor in Galloway at all.

[SteveH]

Electoral Calculus says there is an 80% chance it will go to Labour.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Hemel%20Hempstead

My constituency: Bristol Central, looks interesting. It's the one with Carla Denyer standing and the odds look good for her.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Bristol%20Central

I'm keeping all the election literature being posted through my door and, so far, only the Green Party and Labour have even bothered.

Great news - thanks!

[Nearly Sane]

Great news - thanks!

Given the result last time it's quite frankly incredible that it would be 50/50 never mind 80/20.

[Nearly Sane]

'Woman arrested after drink thrown at Nigel Farage' - much as I dislike Farage, this sort of stuff is idiocy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6pp7yg0y3po

[Aruntraveller]

'Woman arrested after drink thrown at Nigel Farage' - much as I dislike Farage, this sort of stuff is idiocy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6pp7yg0y3po

Yes, it only makes people more sympathetic to him. He probably set it up himself. 

[ProfessorDavey]

Yes, it only makes people more sympathetic to him. He probably set it up himself. 

Yup - there is some traffic on TwiX suggesting that she is a plant and it was staged - the girlfriend of the ReformUK press officer!

https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/1798023290625417293

[Nearly Sane]

Yup - there is some traffic on TwiX suggesting that she is a plant and it was staged - the girlfriend of the ReformUK press officer!

https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/1798023290625417293

She denies it


https://x.com/emilyhewertson/status/1798005077799809207

[Nearly Sane]

Faiza Shaheen resigns from Labour Party


Hmmm...


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c977d5jep6eo

[Nearly Sane]

She denies it


https://x.com/emilyhewertson/status/1798005077799809207

And wasn't her


https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/identity-revealed-woman-who-threw-32960862

[Nearly Sane]

So Sunak may have sort of 'won'. And yet, we may all have lost, in that they play acted.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmjjzxg7k6no

[Nearly Sane]

Oh, bad Rishi. Time to go and spend some time on the naughty step and reflect on why lying is wrong.

[Nearly Sane]

Oddschecker has Farage at 3/1 on to win in Clacton. Constituency betting markets aren't generally very liquid so are usually more influenced by overall polls but Farage has obviously attracted around 75% of the bets in a more liquid market.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/clacton