Author Topic: UK election 2024 (Read 29229 times)

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #325 on:** June 03, 2024, 04:13:32 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on June 03, 2024, 03:36:31 PM

Farage to make 'emergency announcement'? Is he the new James Bond?

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/live/farage-announcement-latest-news-election-reform-uk-112621866.html

Farage becomes ReformUK leader

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #326 on:** June 03, 2024, 04:17:17 PM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on June 03, 2024, 04:13:32 PM

Farage becomes ReformUK leader

And he's standing in Clacton

SteveH · « **Reply #327 on:** June 03, 2024, 04:20:30 PM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on June 03, 2024, 04:13:32 PM

Farage becomes ReformUK leader

And standing for parliament. Hopefully, he'll suffer his eighth defeat.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #328 on:** June 03, 2024, 06:07:13 PM »

'Greens furious over 'outrageous' STV debate exclusion', I agree with them but then I think these things are generally bollocks.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c511lgve271o

Aruntraveller · « **Reply #329 on:** June 03, 2024, 07:08:36 PM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on June 03, 2024, 04:17:17 PM

And he's standing in Clacton

I can't help thinking that a certain court ruling across the pond may have influenced this latest volte-face.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #330 on:** June 04, 2024, 08:27:03 AM »

The differences on oil and gas production may well get the Tories a couple of extra seats. Very uninteresting debate generally.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0ddlkp9g9do

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #331 on:** June 04, 2024, 08:31:54 AM »

Laudable stuff from the Lib Dems but doesn't feel 'fully costed and funded' at all.

I'm getting extremely cynical about the idea of 'fully costed and funded' - not much more than some odd game where you pluck a figure from the air, pick a random possibility of where to get the money that may or may not be possible, and join them together.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmww3ne8wo

Aruntraveller · « **Reply #332 on:** June 04, 2024, 08:35:28 AM »

Quote

'fully costed and funded'

File alongside "laser-focussed"

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #333 on:** June 04, 2024, 08:47:25 AM »

Following on from Labour not putting a figure on immigration, and being attacked for it by the Tories, the Torues do the same.

Meanwhile Farage does put a figure on ot 'net zero' and declares that we will pull out of the ECHR which he continues, helped by the Tories, to elide with the EU.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #334 on:** June 04, 2024, 08:51:07 AM »

Oh, and I see Cleverley when asked about whether the Tories will pull out from the ECHR says wait for the manifesto. Meanwhile we get a policy a day released into the wild. I'm inclined to a 'stay quiet' till you've published your manifesto rule as you end up talking about policy that you don't have the context for.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #335 on:** June 04, 2024, 08:52:27 AM »

Quote from: Aruntraveller on June 04, 2024, 08:35:28 AM

File alongside "laser-focussed"

If you got rid of them both then Rachel Reeves would be very quiet.

jeremyp · « **Reply #336 on:** June 04, 2024, 11:41:34 AM »

Quote from: SteveH on June 03, 2024, 01:56:14 PM

This article in the Guardian shows that my constituency, Hemel Hempstead (which is significantly different from 2019, despite keeping the same name) is only Labour's 123rd most winnable seat, and will need a 26.8% swing to take it from the Tories. The Labour bloke, David Taylor, is putting in a huge campaigning effort, whereas the Tory, Jaymey McIvor, who is a local and county councillor in Essex and has no previous connection with Hemel Hempstead, seems to have given up - we've heard very little from him. Odd, since the seat is still holdable by the Tories, I'd've thought.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/feb/20/general-election-uk-opinion-polls-seats-tories-lose

Electoral Calculus says there is an 80% chance it will go to Labour.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Hemel%20Hempstead

My constituency: Bristol Central, looks interesting. It's the one with Carla Denyer standing and the odds look good for her.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Bristol%20Central

I'm keeping all the election literature being posted through my door and, so far, only the Green Party and Labour have even bothered.

jeremyp · « **Reply #337 on:** June 04, 2024, 11:47:47 AM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on June 03, 2024, 04:17:17 PM

And he's standing in Clacton

That's interesting. Conservative and Labour are more or less neck and neck there. I suspect Farage will probably split the Tory vote and send the seat to Labour.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #338 on:** June 04, 2024, 12:07:08 PM »

Quote from: jeremyp on June 04, 2024, 11:41:34 AM

Electoral Calculus says there is an 80% chance it will go to Labour.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Hemel%20Hempstead

My constituency: Bristol Central, looks interesting. It's the one with Carla Denyer standing and the odds look good for her.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Bristol%20Central

I'm keeping all the election literature being posted through my door and, so far, only the Green Party and Labour have even bothered.

Having first gone to Oddschecker to see what chance of a Galloway moment and it not being there, I was triggered by your post to look on EC for it, and while it's there it doesn't seem to factor in Galloway at all.

SteveH · « **Reply #339 on:** June 04, 2024, 01:23:32 PM »

Quote from: jeremyp on June 04, 2024, 11:41:34 AM

Electoral Calculus says there is an 80% chance it will go to Labour.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Hemel%20Hempstead

My constituency: Bristol Central, looks interesting. It's the one with Carla Denyer standing and the odds look good for her.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Bristol%20Central

I'm keeping all the election literature being posted through my door and, so far, only the Green Party and Labour have even bothered.

Great news - thanks!

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #340 on:** June 04, 2024, 01:56:50 PM »

Quote from: SteveH on June 04, 2024, 01:23:32 PM

Great news - thanks!

Given the result last time it's quite frankly incredible that it would be 50/50 never mind 80/20.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #341 on:** June 04, 2024, 05:07:38 PM »

'Woman arrested after drink thrown at Nigel Farage' - much as I dislike Farage, this sort of stuff is idiocy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6pp7yg0y3po

Aruntraveller · « **Reply #342 on:** June 04, 2024, 05:58:31 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on June 04, 2024, 05:07:38 PM

'Woman arrested after drink thrown at Nigel Farage' - much as I dislike Farage, this sort of stuff is idiocy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6pp7yg0y3po

Yes, it only makes people more sympathetic to him. He probably set it up himself.

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #343 on:** June 04, 2024, 06:01:03 PM »

Quote from: Aruntraveller on June 04, 2024, 05:58:31 PM

Yes, it only makes people more sympathetic to him. He probably set it up himself.

Yup - there is some traffic on TwiX suggesting that she is a plant and it was staged - the girlfriend of the ReformUK press officer!

https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/1798023290625417293

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #344 on:** June 04, 2024, 07:11:47 PM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on June 04, 2024, 06:01:03 PM

Yup - there is some traffic on TwiX suggesting that she is a plant and it was staged - the girlfriend of the ReformUK press officer!

https://x.com/GleannIucha/status/1798023290625417293

She denies it

https://x.com/emilyhewertson/status/1798005077799809207

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #345 on:** June 04, 2024, 07:13:42 PM »

Faiza Shaheen resigns from Labour Party

Hmmm...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c977d5jep6eo

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #346 on:** June 04, 2024, 09:18:31 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on June 04, 2024, 07:11:47 PM

She denies it

https://x.com/emilyhewertson/status/1798005077799809207

And wasn't her

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/identity-revealed-woman-who-threw-32960862

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #347 on:** June 05, 2024, 07:40:33 AM »

So Sunak may have sort of 'won'. And yet, we may all have lost, in that they play acted.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmjjzxg7k6no

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #348 on:** June 05, 2024, 08:53:50 AM »

Oh, bad Rishi. Time to go and spend some time on the naughty step and reflect on why lying is wrong.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #349 on:** June 05, 2024, 11:34:36 AM »

Oddschecker has Farage at 3/1 on to win in Clacton. Constituency betting markets aren't generally very liquid so are usually more influenced by overall polls but Farage has obviously attracted around 75% of the bets in a more liquid market.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/clacton

News:

Author Topic: UK election 2024 (Read 29229 times)