UK election 2024

[SteveH]

Oddschecker has Farage at 3/1 on to win in Clacton. Constituency betting markets aren't generally very liquid so are usually more influenced by overall polls but Farage has obviously attracted around 75% of the bets in a more liquid market.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/clacton

Clacton is welcome to him, if he wins  - one more constituency that won't go Tory.

[Aruntraveller]

Clacton is welcome to him, if he wins  - one more constituency that won't go Tory.

Fuck no. That means he'd be jumping up at every opportunity in the HoC to show his quite remarkable stupidity and bigotry.

[Nearly Sane]

Clacton is welcome to him, if he wins  - one more constituency that won't go Tory.

Electoral Calculus is giving him no chance but that's because it's just based on the overall polls. I suspect he's maybe about evens at the moment rather than the 2 extremes.


I can't see a Farage/Reform win as anything other than likely to drag the Tories to the right so there would be absolutely no reason for it to be anything other than a massive disappointment. While he's not a sitting MP, he joins Galliway at the top of the list of those I hope lose.


https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Clacton

[Nearly Sane]

Fuck no. That means he'd be jumping up at every opportunity in the HoC to show his quite remarkable stupidity and bigotry.

If he did win, I suspect we would be seeing a Tory party with seats at the lower end of estimates, in which case, I would fear that they might seek to woo Reform and Farage by more extreme policies, and an offer of a senior shadow Cabinet post. Some would even be touting him as leader.

[jeremyp]

Fuck no. That means he'd be jumping up at every opportunity in the HoC to show his quite remarkable stupidity and bigotry.

I'm quite happy seeing Farage demonstrate his stupidity and bigotry at every opportunity.

[Nearly Sane]

I'm quite happy seeing Farage demonstrate his stupidity and bigotry at every opportunity.

I disagree with both you and Aruntraveller that Farage is anything like stupid. He's an astute and capable politician who is extremely bigoted grifter. He's one of 4 politicians in the UK in my lifetime who I would see as changing the political landscape. The fact that we're not voting in EU elections thus week is to a substantial part down to Farage.

[jeremyp]

Electoral Calculus is giving him no chance but that's because it's just based on the overall polls. I suspect he's maybe about evens at the moment rather than the 2 extremes.


I can't see a Farage/Reform win as anything other than likely to drag the Tories to the right so there would be absolutely no reason for it to be anything other than a massive disappointment. While he's not a sitting MP, he joins Galliway at the top of the list of those I hope lose.


https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Clacton

That page is the same as it was the day he announced he was standing and when I said "Labour and Conservatives are neck and neck". I don't think that Farage is factored into the calculation yet. I expect him (i.e. Reform) to take votes mainly off the Tories and increase Labour's winning margin.

[SteveH]

I disagree with both you and Aruntraveller that Farage is anything like stupid. He's an astute and capable politician who is extremely bigoted grifter. He's one of 4 politicians in the UK in my lifetime who I would see as changing the political landscape. The fact that we're not voting in EU elections thus week is to a substantial part down to Farage.

Astute and cable politicians don't fail seven times to get elected as an MP.

[Nearly Sane]

Astute and cable politicians don't fail seven times to get elected as an MP.

And yet he has achieved much more, and had way more influence than the vast vast majority of MPs who get elected 7 times never mind once. If you look for his monument, it's called Brexit.

[Nearly Sane]

That page is the same as it was the day he announced he was standing and when I said "Labour and Conservatives are neck and neck". I don't think that Farage is factored into the calculation yet. I expect him (i.e. Reform) to take votes mainly off the Tories and increase Labour's winning margin.

I'm not sure that EC will factor in Farage specifically at any point into their calculation.

[Nearly Sane]

Line up for BBC debate with the 7 largest parties in Great Britain. Viewers in Northern Ireland have their own programme.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c877v0e86vko

[jeremyp]

And yet he has achieved much more, and had way more influence than the vast vast majority of MPs who get elected 7 times never mind once. If you look for his monument, it's called Brexit.

What has he achieved?

[jeremyp]

I'm not sure that EC will factor in Farage specifically at any point into their calculation.

That doesn't change my point about the link you posted claiming that Reform has no chance in Clacton. The data used to provide that prediction was gathered before Farage announced that he was running.

His announcement might result in an uptick in Reform's position in the opinion polls which might increase Reform's probability of winning that seat from zero, but I think it will also increase Labour's chance and decrease the Tories' chance.

[Nearly Sane]

What has he achieved?

He contributed largely to making Brexit an issue and then getting it through.

[Nearly Sane]

That doesn't change my point about the link you posted claiming that Reform has no chance in Clacton. The data used to provide that prediction was gathered before Farage announced that he was running.

His announcement might result in an uptick in Reform's position in the opinion polls which might increase Reform's probability of winning that seat from zero, but I think it will also increase Labour's chance and decrease the Tories' chance.

Except I didn't say that he had no chance, I specifically disagreed with that and highlighted that the reason EC shows no chance is the way they calculate it. And the reason I think Oddschecker overestimated it is because of the way they will be calculating it.

[bluehillside Retd.]

NS,

If you look for his monument, it's called Brexit.

Do people have monuments to achievements that are disastrous? 

[Nearly Sane]

NS,

Do people have monuments to achievements that are disastrous?

That it's disastrous I might agree but it doesn't mean that others agree, and doesn't mean that Farage isn't one of the most effective and successful, in their own terms, politicians in the UK in the last 50 years.

[Nearly Sane]

"Growing backlash after Tory chair lands safe seat" - Low level corruption but corruption all the same.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckkkq4kx3l0o

[Nearly Sane]

Farage currently 14/1 to be next Tory leader.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/reform-uk-pulls-to-within-two-points-of-tories-in-latest-yougov-poll/ar-BB1nGHce

[Nearly Sane]

BBC a bit worried that the pause from some party leaders in campaigning as attending D Day commemorations might lead to a dull day in the election but 'not to worry' because there's still the crazy Greens, and Daft Ed Davey.

[jeremyp]

He contributed largely to making Brexit an issue and then getting it through.

I think his contribution to getting Brexit through was minor at best.

Cameron didn't call the referendum because of Farage but because of the anti-EU faction in his own party - a faction that has been a thorn in the side of the Conservative Party since at least the early 90's. I think Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings played a much bigger part in swinging the vote than Farage.

In this election, the Reform Party will almost certainly do nothing more than split the Tory vote even with Farage in charge.

[Nearly Sane]

I think his contribution to getting Brexit through was minor at best.

Cameron didn't call the referendum because of Farage but because of the anti-EU faction in his own party - a faction that has been a thorn in the side of the Conservative Party since at least the early 90's. I think Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings played a much bigger part in swinging the vote than Farage.

In this election, the Reform Party will almost certainly do nothing more than split the Tory vote even with Farage in charge.

And yet for tears Farage was the one clear voice on the subject because he could  not being attached to the Tory Party, be monomaniacal about it, and sound not just Barkingside mad right wing. The part of the Tory Party that Cameron was trying to appease was emboldened by having the successes of UKIP, in particular in the 2014 EU elections, something that would not have happened without Farage.

The bulk of the support for Brexit had been built up over those years, long before Cumming and Johnson were heard of, at least not on the side of Brexit.

[Nearly Sane]

Three Jobs Ross decides not to give one up as he had said he would.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9xxe8xe59eo

[Aruntraveller]

..

[SteveH]

Guardian poll tracker. Both Labour and Tories have gone up slightly in the last fortnight or so, while the others have gone down slightly. This may be within the margin of error, but if not, it might indicate strayers returning to one of the two main parties as the election approaches (only four weeks to go).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/jun/03/uk-general-election-opinion-polls-tracker-latest-labour-tories-2024