UK election 2024

[Nearly Sane]

"Starmer: Reassurance with just a hint of paranoia" - the article softens the paranoia claim, rather it's about caring what the image looks like. There's something to be said for a less controlled approach but then there's the attitude in Sunak's campaign where the lack of care is half fuck you, I'm looking for the next job, and can I bet on the date of the election.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cxee3j31p1no

[Nearly Sane]

I agree and there isn't a huge amount of difference to what the tories have written on paper. But this is where overall political instincts becomes important. So I have little doubt that Labour are committed to the NHS and if push came to shove they would prioritise funding the NHS over tax cuts. So when Labour talks of efficiencies it reads to me as doing more for the same funding. So the focus in on better outcomes.

The tories politically aren't committed so if push comes to shove they would prioritise tax cuts over more funding, or even the same funding, for the NHS. So when Labour talks of efficiencies it reads to me as doing the same for less funding, which often morphs into simply doing less. That's what we've seen over the past 14 years. So the focus is on cost cutting.

And there is also the issue of competence - why would we trust the tories to do something in the next 5 years that they've failed to do over the past 14 in government.
Tory manifesto is here:

https://public.conservatives.com/static/documents/GE2024/Conservative-Manifesto-GE2024.pdf

https://youtu.be/6Cs3Pvmmv0E?si=Qdx0AbT7MZds4TsB

[SteveH]

"Starmer: Reassurance with just a hint of paranoia" - the article softens the paranoia claim, rather it's about caring what the image looks like. There's something to be said for a less controlled approach but then there's the attitude in Sunak's campaign where the lack of care is half fuck you, I'm looking for the next job, and can I bet on the date of the election.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cxee3j31p1no

The photo at the head of the article looks horribly staged, like a still from some third-rate, cheesy musical - 'Jesus Christ! Superstarmer!', maybe.

[Nearly Sane]

The photo at the head of the article looks horribly staged, like a still from some third-rate, cheesy musical - 'Jesus Christ! Superstarmer!', maybe.

There's a Starmer
He's talking now on Sky

[Nearly Sane]

Current favourite at 6/4 for Tory seats on Oddschecker is 50 - 99

[SteveH]

We could end up with a Labour government and a Lib Dem opposition!

[Nearly Sane]

Current odds on next Tory leader

[Nearly Sane]

We could end up with a Labour government and a Lib Dem opposition!

Possible but the betting still against that. Though that it's even a thing is weird

[ProfessorDavey]

Current odds on next Tory leader

The complexity here is whether the various candidates retain their seats at the general election. If they lose then they cannot stand for the leadership. In a number of cases the current polling suggests winning/losing is on a knife edge.

[Gordon]

I'm looking forward to a good few 'Portillo moments' - the schadenfreude could be overwhelming!

[Nearly Sane]

I'm looking forward to a good few 'Portillo moments' - the schadenfreude could be overwhelming!

The number of Tories standing down has removed a few hoped for Portillo moments.

[Nearly Sane]

John Curtice on the Farage effect, also interesting on Lib Dems advances

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd11jpqgzp4o

[Aruntraveller]

Jonathan Pie on Nigel Farage. Spot on as ever:

https://youtu.be/LwIa70EDZjE?si=8lhRfdarFAPlEI_p

[SteveH]

Jonathan Pie on Nigel Farage. Spot on as ever:

https://youtu.be/LwIa70EDZjE?si=8lhRfdarFAPlEI_p

Good as usual, but he wants to be careful: I think the accusation that Fartage was associated with the NF in his youth has been disproved, or at any rate is "not proven", as they say in Scotland.

[Maeght]

Current odds on next Tory leader

What a bunch!

[Nearly Sane]

If Sunak has given up any thought of even getting a decent size opposition, and is worried about Reform making the Tories a rump party then I think he should turn all his attention to destroying Farage. I don't give him a lot of hope but it would be an honourable way to go.

[Nearly Sane]

The complexity here is whether the various candidates retain their seats at the general election. If they lose then they cannot stand for the leadership. In a number of cases the current polling suggests winning/losing is on a knife edge.

Jeremy Hunt is 70/1 in part because of his ten and half thousand majority is seen as completely gone.

ETA - Michael Gove is 66/1 and he's not standing

[Nearly Sane]

Jeremy Hunt is 70/1 in part because of his ten and half thousand majority is seen as completely gone.

ETA - Michael Gove is 66/1 and he's not standing

Hunt isn't even the favourite Jeremy  that's Jeremy Quin

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Quin

[Nearly Sane]

Always remember

[jeremyp]

And still the manifesto has no strategy

Which manifesto are you reading? The Labour manifesto I just looked at definitely has a strategy for the NHS.

[Gordon]

This has just been published to recommend what those looking to vote tactically should do in order to damage the Tories - you can check each constituency for a recommendation.

https://www.bestforbritain.org/journalist_toolkit_getvoting

This is my own constituency (previously East Dunbartonshire in the 2019 GE) and currently held by the SNP, won by a narrow margin in 2019 (getting rid of Jo Swinson, the then leader of the Lib Dems). The advice given is to vote Lib Dem based on current polling, but I suspect it doesn't really matter since the Tories have little chance here anyway - it will most likely be a SNP vs Lib Dem contest.

https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/S14000097




 

[ProfessorDavey]

Which manifesto are you reading? The Labour manifesto I just looked at definitely has a strategy for the NHS.

Absolutely - the Labour manifesto definitely has a strategy on the NHS.

But then we are discussing this with NS - who declared that Labour had no strategy (or rather no cohesive plan) when he hadn't even read the manifesto because he hadn't even realised that the manifesto had been published. When I pointed it out that it had been published 6 minutes after his initial post he claims to have read the manifesto (it is 133 pages long) and declared it had no strategy!

[jeremyp]

This has just been published to recommend what those looking to vote tactically should do in order to damage the Tories - you can check each constituency for a recommendation.

https://www.bestforbritain.org/journalist_toolkit_getvoting

This is my own constituency (previously East Dunbartonshire in the 2019 GE) and currently held by the SNP, won by a narrow margin in 2019 (getting rid of Jo Swinson, the then leader of the Lib Dems). The advice given is to vote Lib Dem based on current polling, but I suspect it doesn't really matter since the Tories have little chance here anyway - it will most likely be a SNP vs Lib Dem contest.

https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/S14000097

Although your page shows the Lib Dems ahead with Labour and the SNP more or less neck and neck in second and third. You could get a Labour MP if all the SNP voters switched to Labour (or an SNP MP if all the Labour voters switched) so your vote could matter.

I'd quite like it if the Conservatives got an absolute kicking but Labour didn't get an overall majority. I think that's the best chance of getting some voting reforms.

[ProfessorDavey]

I'd quite like it if the Conservatives got an absolute kicking but Labour didn't get an overall majority. I think that's the best chance of getting some voting reforms.

I think the chances of that happening are very, very slim.

But on electoral reform - I'm not convinced that a hung parliament necessarily increases its likelihood. It certainly didn't work in 2010 when the LibDems insisted on a referendum, but the tories campaigned for no-change and AV was soundly beaten. One of the problems with having a vote on electoral reform under those circumstances is that it give the easy 'anti' argument of - 'look with electoral reform you'll get small parties with precious little popular support calling the shots'.

Weirdly I think potentially the best chance in this election for electoral reform would be (as some polls are suggesting) for Labour to get about 40% of the vote but roughly 500 seats. I think this might just be a general wake-up call that FPTP risks (and actually) delivers perverse electoral outcomes. There could be a groundswell clamour for change were this to actually happen. And ultimately there will only be change if a winning party accepts that the system that allowed them to win is wrong - i.e. acting on principle rather than self-interest.

[jeremyp]

Weirdly I think potentially the best chance in this election for electoral reform would be (as some polls are suggesting) for Labour to get about 40% of the vote but roughly 500 seats. I think this might just be a general wake-up call that FPTP risks (and actually) delivers perverse electoral outcomes. There could be a groundswell clamour for change were this to actually happen. And ultimately there will only be change if a winning party accepts that the system that allowed them to win is wrong - i.e. acting on principle rather than self-interest.

You mean, if the result is a blatant "travesty" of the popular vote. I think you may have a point. I do remember there was an election (2015?) where the SNP got about 50 seats and UKIP got about one but with a higher share of the vote.

I don't, by the way, think that the argument of "smaller party calling the shots" has any real merit. The Lib Dems had some influence between 2010 and 2015 but not the gun to the head sort of influence evoked by the argument (as witnessed by their failure to get any electoral reform). Also, the "coalition" between May's government and the DUP was not unduly influenced by the DUP, although, for the most part the Tories could manage without them.