UK election 2024

[ProfessorDavey]

You mean, if the result is a blatant "travesty" of the popular vote. I think you may have a point. I do remember there was an election (2015?) where the SNP got about 50 seats and UKIP got about one but with a higher share of the vote.

And this election could plausible produce this kind of non-sense on stilts.

So the latest polling from Redfield & Wilton, published 30 mins ago has the following headline voting intention:

Labour 43% (+1)
Reform UK 18% (+1)
Conservative 18% (–)
Lib Dem 12% (-1)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 3% (–)
Other 1% (–)

Put into a seat predictor (and without tactical voting) you get:

Lab 512
LD 57
Con 31
SNP 21
Ref 4
PC 4
Green 2
Others 19

So the party that:
Gets 43% of the vote ends up with 80% of the seats
The party that is equal second in popular vote gets 4 seats (equal 5th in parliamentary seat terms)
The official opposition is the party that comes 4th in the popular vote
And a party that gets just 3% of the vote ends up with 21 seats

[Nearly Sane]

....

Others 19

So the party that:
Gets 43% of the vote ends up with 80% of the seats
The party that is equal second in popular vote gets 4 seats (equal 5th in parliamentary seat terms)
The official opposition is the party that comes 4th in the popular vote
And a party that gets just 3% of the vote ends up with 21 seats

I suspect that the others is likely to have 8 DUP seats and 7 Sinn Fein seats, or vice versa, so joint 7th in parliamentary seat terms.

Other than that agree.

[Aruntraveller]

It is a shit system. A minority share of the vote producing a majority of seats in the HoC. Profoundly undemocratic

[Nearly Sane]

It is a shit system. A minority share of the vote producing a majority of seats in the HoC. Profoundly undemocratic

And the monstrosity that is the HoL

[Nearly Sane]

The sheep, they do not know him

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-david-cameron-try-33056919

[Nearly Sane]

'Labour suspends candidate over 'pro-Russian' post' - as social media offences go, this one seems not that offensive. Still adds to the drama in the seat.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0vvjzw5ejno

[Nearly Sane]

'Labour suspends candidate over 'pro-Russian' post' - as social media offences go, this one seems not that offensive. Still adds to the drama in the seat.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0vvjzw5ejno

Meanwhile in Reform.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx77lvd6e73o


Tbh, some of these are a bit so what.

[jeremyp]

Tbh, some of these are a bit so what.

Yeah, I'm think Meh. In fact, the Labour one above is also weak sauce.

What is funny though is that Reform UK has apparently squandered £144,000 to vet its candidates. Although, if they have 600 candidates, it's not very much for each one.

[Nearly Sane]

Yeah, I'm think Meh. In fact, the Labour one above is also weak sauce.

What is funny though is that Reform UK has apparently squandered £144,000 to vet its candidates. Although, if they have 600 candidates, it's not very much for each one.

Yeah , 220 quid a candidate seems a bit likely to perhaps miss stuff put but with these ones, I think you could easily have read it and said fine, might not be exactly mainstream but not a major problem

[SteveH]

Damning verdict on the Tories.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jun/19/uk-general-election-2024-live-updates-latest-today-rishi-sunak-tories-labour-reform-ipsos-poll

Tory government from 2010 to 2024 worse than any other in postwar history, says study by leading experts
As John Stevens reports in a story for the Daily Mirror today, Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was complaining at a private Tory dinner earlier this year about the electorate’s “total failure to appreciate our superb record since 2010”.

But just how good is the Conservative party’s record in government over the past 14 years? Thankfully, we now have what is as close as we’re going to get to the authoritative, official verdict. Sir Anthony Seldon, arguably Britain’s leading contemporary political historian, is publishing a collection of essays written by prominent academics and other experts and they have analysed the record of the Conservative government from 2010 to 2024, looking at what it has achieved in every area of policy.

It is called The Conservative Effect 2010-2014: 14 Wasted Years? and it is published by Cambridge University Press.

And its conclusion is damning. It describes this as the worst government in postwar history.

Here is the conclusion of the final chapter, written by Seldon and his co-editor Tom Egerton, which sums up the overall verdict.

In comparison to the earlier four periods of one-party dominance post-1945, it is hard to see the years since 2010 as anything but disappointing. By 2024, Britain’s standing in the world was lower, the union was less strong, the country less equal, the population less well protected, growth more sluggish with the outlook poor, public services underperforming and largely unreformed, while respect for the institutions of the British state, including the civil service, judiciary and the police, was lower, as it was for external bodies, including the universities and the BBC, repeatedly attacked not least by government, ministers and right-wing commentators.

Do the unusually high number of external shocks to some extent let the governments off the hook? One above all – Brexit – was entirely of its own making and will be seen in history as the defining decision of these years. In 2024, the verdict on Brexit is almost entirely negative, with those who are suffering the most from it, as sceptics at the time predicted, the most vulnerable. The nation was certainly difficult to rule in these fourteen years, the Conservative party still more so. Longstanding problems certainly contributed to the difficulties the prime minister faced in providing clear strategic policy, including the 24-hour news cycle, the rise of social media and AI, and the frequency of scandals and crises. But it was the decision of the prime minister to choose to be distracted by the short term, rather than focusing on the strategic and the long term. The prime minister has agency: the incumbents often overlooked it.

Overall, it is hard to find a comparable period in history of the Conservatives which achieved so little, or which left the country at its conclusion in a more troubling state.

In their concluding essay, Seldon and Egerton argue that poor leadership was one of the main problems with the 14-year administration. They say that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were “not up to the job” of being prime minister, and they have a low opinion of most of the other leading figures who have been in government. They say:

Very few cabinet ministers from 2010 to 2024 could hold a candle to the team who served under Clement Attlee – which included Ernest Bevin, Nye Bevan, Stafford Cripps, Hugh Gaitskell and Herbert Morrison. Or the teams who served under Wilson, Thatcher or Blair. Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt and Philip Hammond were rare examples of ministers of quality after 2010 …

A strong and capable prime minister is essential to governmental success in the British system. The earlier four periods saw two historic and landmark prime ministers, ie Churchill and Thatcher, with a succession of others who were capable if not agenda-changing PMs, including Macmillan, Wilson, Major and Blair. Since 2010, only Cameron came close to that level, with Sunak the best of the rest. Policy virtually stopped under May as Brexit consumed almost all the machine’s time, while serious policymaking ground to a halt under Johnson’s inept leadership, the worst in modern premiership, and the hapless Truss. Continuity of policy was not helped by each incoming prime minister despising their predecessor, with Truss’s admiration for Johnson the only exception. Thus they took next no time to understand what it was their predecessors were trying to do, and how to build on it rather than destroy it.

Seldon’s first book, published 40 years ago, was about Churchill’s postwar administration, and he has been editing similar collections of essays studying the record of administrations since Margaret Thatcher’s. He is a fair judge, and not given to making criticisms like this lightly.

The book is officially being published next week, and I’m quoting from a proof copy. In this version, the subtitle still has a question mark after 14 Wasted Years? Judging by the conclusion, that does not seem necessary.

[Nearly Sane]

Damning verdict on the Tories.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jun/19/uk-general-election-2024-live-updates-latest-today-rishi-sunak-tories-labour-reform-ipsos-poll

I don't disagree but do wonder if there is a general decline rather than one specific to the Tories.

[Nearly Sane]

'Sunak protection officer arrested over alleged election date bets' - farcical

[ProfessorDavey]

Well here is a poll for you - from this evening

Labour 35%
Reform UK 24%
Conservative 15%
Lib Dem 12%
Green 8%
SNP 3%

Stick that into Electoral Calculus and you get:

Lab 443
LD 64
Con 45
SNP 21
Ref 51
PC 4
Green 2

So LibDem official opposition and Tories 4th in terms of seats!!

[Maeght]

Whose poll is that?

[ProfessorDavey]

Whose poll is that?

PeoplePolling

[SteveH]

Well here is a poll for you - from this evening

Labour 35%
Reform UK 24%
Conservative 15%
Lib Dem 12%
Green 8%
SNP 3%

Stick that into Electoral Calculus and you get:

Lab 443
LD 64
Con 45
SNP 21
Ref 51
PC 4
Green 2

So LibDem official opposition and Tories 4th in terms of seats!!

Probably a rogue poll - they do happen - but a chap can dream...

[Maeght]

PeoplePolling

Ah, Matthew Goodwin's company. He's known for his right wing views and not sure I'd believe his results. Probably an outlier.

[Nearly Sane]

Probably a rogue poll - they do happen - but a chap can dream...

Bit of a nightmare having Reform do that well.

[Nearly Sane]

Tom Tugendhat moving up in the odds of next Tory Leader.

As an outside bet, I might bung a tenner on Mel Stride. At 150/1.

[jeremyp]

I don't disagree but do wonder if there is a general decline rather than one specific to the Tories.

I don't think you need to wonder: Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn were pretty bad and their teams equally so. I'm reserving judgement on Keri Starmer - I think he represents an improving trend, but he and his team don't inspire me much.

[jeremyp]

Bit of a nightmare having Reform do that well.

It was only one poll. Here's another single poll that predicts they will get no seats.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgrrlj4m5y3o

Also, the Tories will be almost completely wiped out.

[Nearly Sane]

It was only one poll. Here's another single poll that predicts they will get no seats.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgrrlj4m5y3o

Also, the Tories will be almost completely wiped out.

My comment was addressed to Steve's idea that it was a dream.

[Nearly Sane]

I don't think you need to wonder: Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn were pretty bad and their teams equally so. I'm reserving judgement on Keri Starmer = I think he represents an improving trend, but he and his team don't inspire me much.

And the devolved govts aren't a great inspiration either.

[jeremyp]

And the devolved govts aren't a great inspiration either.

That's not surprising to me. If you are a politician of any substance, you are probably looking to be part of the UK government, or at least the UK parliament, the exceptions being those who advocate independence for their region, but independence parties are single issue parties and they have their own problems.

[Nearly Sane]

That's not surprising to me. If you are a politician of any substance, you are probably looking to be part of the UK government, or at least the UK parliament, the exceptions being those who advocate independence for their region, but independence parties are single issue parties and they have their own problems.

Agreed, it's more the question of the performance of other parties in comparison to the Tories that in terms of govt for the 14 wasted years in the article.