Author Topic: UK election 2024  (Read 33389 times)

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #650 on: June 27, 2024, 01:53:56 PM »
Nope - how else would you interpret:

"It seems to me it would be easier to deal with that if the party took a position that allowed members to support independence"

So which is it NS - are you going to retract that comment in which you clearly assert that the Labour party does not currently allow its members to support independence. Alternatively you can provide some evidence to back up your assertion. Choice is yours NS.
Because they aren't allowed to be candidates and campaign for it. It's whipped. The whole point of this is arguing for agnosticism as a policy on independence something which you oppose.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #651 on: June 27, 2024, 01:55:32 PM »
You are correct that there are no other independence campaigns for independence for a place called ... err ... Scotland. No shit Sherlock.

But there are plenty which have features that are pretty well identical (e.g. long-standing and stable union with all parts of that union having democratic rights, without recent history of violent oppression from the central government etc), including Wales and Cornwall in the UK. And Catalonia and the Basque region in Spain/France. In fact there are absolutely loads of them - select those that have the features I describe from this very, very long list.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_separatist_movements_in_Europe
So Labour opposed the split of Czechia and Slovakia? Surely democratic rights include independence?

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #652 on: June 27, 2024, 01:59:15 PM »
Because they aren't allowed to be candidates and campaign for it. It's whipped. The whole point of this is arguing for agnosticism as a policy on independence something which you oppose.
Oh dear - when in a hole, stop digging.

Your assertion is about Labour members, not candidates (one is a very small subset of the other). So again - evidence please that Labour party does not currently allow its members to support independence.

Oh and by the way rebelling against a Labour whip position does not automatically get you expelled from the party - you can remain an elected MP, MSP, candidate and member even if you rebel. I had a very close link with a guy who was a Labour MP from 1997 to 2005 - he was rather proud of his rebellious status - he went against the Labour whip many times - he was never expelled from the party (although he did lose to the tories in 2005).

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #653 on: June 27, 2024, 02:47:39 PM »
Corbyn to win in Islington?

Nearly Sane

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Aruntraveller

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #655 on: June 27, 2024, 08:39:47 PM »
Oh Nigel the mask slips. Of course, none of these thoughts or prejudices have ever crossed your mind:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/27/reform-uk-activist-filmed-making-racist-comments-about-rishi-sunak
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #656 on: June 28, 2024, 08:41:01 AM »
'Postal delays leave Scottish holidaymakers unable to vote' have a friend hoping he gets his today otherwise he'll miss it.


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9x84wg206eo

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #657 on: June 28, 2024, 10:43:42 AM »
'Postal delays leave Scottish holidaymakers unable to vote' have a friend hoping he gets his today otherwise he'll miss it.


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9x84wg206eo
I imagine this is a problem UK-wide, but recognise there may be a particular issue in Scotland as their school holidays start earlier.

I wonder whether there will be a disproportionate effect on certain demographics - certainly in England private schools finish earlier than state schools so those families often head off on holiday before state schools have broken up.

I wonder also whether there will be issues for university students - we are now outside of term time, so plenty will have registered in their university constituency but will need their postal vote to be sent to their home address. And quite likely many will also be away around this time - again to get holiday in before schools break up in England.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #658 on: June 29, 2024, 11:27:52 AM »
Scottish councils actions to deal with the postal vote issue


https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/news/content/ar-BB1p4P2K?ocid=sapphireappshare

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #659 on: June 29, 2024, 03:15:12 PM »

Reform 'drop' 3 candidates. I wouldn't mind a list of all.the suspended candidates who are still on the ballot paper. I'm sure I will have missed a few.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c727xz2kkgjo

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #660 on: June 30, 2024, 08:10:04 AM »
Local Labour members resign to campaign for Corbyn - one of those seats that will add interest the overall results becomes too obvious after exit polls and first results.


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgejv0xxg2o

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #661 on: June 30, 2024, 09:40:10 AM »
Interesting article on history of UK elections, tied into art and literature, by Simon Schama

https://archive.vn/IWrPq

Stranger

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Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #663 on: June 30, 2024, 04:36:13 PM »
Latest Tory next leader odds. Badenoch clear favourite, Farage drifting a bit

SteveH

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #664 on: June 30, 2024, 04:56:01 PM »
Latest Tory next leader odds. Badenoch clear favourite, Farage drifting a bit
Who cares? The Tories will be out of power for the rest of my life, and whoever becomes leader won't become PM, just as Hague, IDS, Howard etc. didn't between 97 and 10.
When conspiracy nuts start spouting their bollocks, the best answer is "That's what they want you to think".

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #665 on: June 30, 2024, 05:20:27 PM »
Who cares? The Tories will be out of power for the rest of my life, and whoever becomes leader won't become PM, just as Hague, IDS, Howard etc. didn't between 97 and 10.
Because the tone of political debate is important. If Farage became the leader of the opposition it has a huge affect on what happens all round.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2024, 05:42:20 PM by Nearly Sane »

SteveH

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When conspiracy nuts start spouting their bollocks, the best answer is "That's what they want you to think".

Stranger

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #667 on: June 30, 2024, 05:41:29 PM »
Who cares? The Tories will be out of power for the rest of my life, and whoever becomes leader won't become PM, just as Hague, IDS, Howard etc. didn't between 97 and 10.

I hope you're right, but it's all too easy to see how it might go terribly wrong. Remember the IFS saying that neither main party was being at all honest about the state the country's finances are in, and that big tax rises or deep cuts will be needed.

Labour will, if it wins, inherit a total mess, and it's hard to see that their 'funding everything with growth' idea is realistic. I can see public disappointment and the far right simplistic nonsense of Nasty Nigel and that the Tories seem set to go even further with ("it's all the immigrants' and the ECHR's fault, tax cuts for everybody, privatise the NHS, screw everybody on benefits,..."), benefitting from a backlash.

Remember, the UK electorate was stupid enough to vote for Brexit, based on nothing but lies and fantasies.

According to the Get Voting tactical voting page, in my constituency, I can "vote with my heart" because Labour is way ahead of every other party, but guess who's in second place... Yep, Reform UK.   :(

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Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #668 on: June 30, 2024, 05:47:04 PM »
I hope you're right, but it's all too easy to see how it might go terribly wrong. Remember the IFS saying that neither main party was being at all honest about the state the country's finances are in, and that big tax rises or deep cuts will be needed.

Labour will, if it wins, inherit a total mess, and it's hard to see that their 'funding everything with growth' idea is realistic. I can see public disappointment and the far right simplistic nonsense of Nasty Nigel and that the Tories seem set to go even further with ("it's all the immigrants' and the ECHR's fault, tax cuts for everybody, privatise the NHS, screw everybody on benefits,..."), benefitting from a backlash.

Remember, the UK electorate was stupid enough to vote for Brexit, based on nothing but lies and fantasies.

According to the Get Voting tactical voting page, in my constituency, I can "vote with my heart" because Labour is way ahead of every other party, but guess who's in second place... Yep, Reform UK.   :(
I mostly agree but the idea that the electorate is just stupid or racist because they vote for things you disagree with is part of the problem. Immigration is fine if you plan for it but it is obvious in lots of ways it wasn't planned for in terms of its impact. And when services are strained then its not stupid for people to feel that the status quo will be part of the problem.

Brexit was in part lost because too many people who opposed told people who were considering voting for it that was because they were stupid and/or racist.

« Last Edit: June 30, 2024, 05:56:35 PM by Nearly Sane »

SteveH

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #669 on: June 30, 2024, 05:57:42 PM »
Hardly anyone, in my neck of the woods, is displaying party-political poster in their windows or gardens. I've only seen one, for the Lib Dems. Does this indicate apathy?
When conspiracy nuts start spouting their bollocks, the best answer is "That's what they want you to think".

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #670 on: June 30, 2024, 06:00:48 PM »
Hardly anyone, in my neck of the woods, is displaying party-political poster in their windows or gardens. I've only seen one, for the Lib Dems. Does this indicate apathy?
Surely it's that even many that care will vote against something rather than for it. And even where they don't I doubt apathy is the only cause. A despair of what is offered?
« Last Edit: June 30, 2024, 06:09:33 PM by Nearly Sane »

ProfessorDavey

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #671 on: June 30, 2024, 07:52:10 PM »
Surely it's that even many that care will vote against something rather than for it. And even where they don't I doubt apathy is the only cause. A despair of what is offered?
I think the world has moved on from the traditional party poster and garden stakes of old. Sure a few people still display them (there are certainly plenty of LidDem posters/stakes around here) but I think nowadays those that want to demonstrate their support for a particular party are more likely to do so via their social media activities.

Nearly Sane

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #672 on: June 30, 2024, 11:26:28 PM »
Reform candidate jumps to Tories


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crgk44k4mzxo

Aruntraveller

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #673 on: July 01, 2024, 08:17:48 AM »
On our street in Worthing we have plenty of posters up - mostly Labour. I've only seen one Tory poster on the next street down.
Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Stranger

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Re: UK election 2024
« Reply #674 on: July 01, 2024, 09:39:26 AM »
I mostly agree but the idea that the electorate is just stupid or racist because they vote for things you disagree with is part of the problem. Immigration is fine if you plan for it but it is obvious in lots of ways it wasn't planned for in terms of its impact. And when services are strained then its not stupid for people to feel that the status quo will be part of the problem.

Brexit was in part lost because too many people who opposed told people who were considering voting for it that was because they were stupid and/or racist.

I wasn't suggesting that it be used as a campaign slogan, and I agree about the Brexit mistake, but it kind of makes my point. It's not rational to vote against your own interests because you feel insulted. Brexit was against the status quo but it was always clear that it would only make things worse for most people.

You're also right about immigration not being planned for, but it's all too easy for those in power to cover up their own planing failures by simply blaming immigration itself. Actually, it's worse than that, they are trying to blame the relatively small number of asylum seekers - the "small boats". The small boats could be stopped immediately by simply providing a safe and legal way for people in France (and preferably more widely) to apply for asylum in the UK. The planning for the relatively small numbers (compared to legal immigration) should be relatively straightforward, given that most successful applicants will work and contribute to the economy.

Collectively, the electorate do behave stupidly, but it's not all about individuals being stupid (although about half of them are below average intelligence) it's partly ignorance, lots of people don't follow politics much at all and only end up with a few sound bites that have filtered through.

I think it was Robert A. Heinlein who said, "There are perhaps 5% of the population that simply can't think. There are another 5% who can, and do. The remaining 90% can think, but don't." I think this is doubly true of engagement with political issues so as to make an informed choice.

Nasty Nigel doesn't have any worked out policies, just some vacuous slogans. He says "zero net migration" but there's no clue how he'd actual achieve that. And yet large numbers of people are turning to Reform UK because of the slogans alone.

There are also the normal cognitive biases that you have to work hard to avoid. A comforting lie can easily appeal more than the hard truth. And since Trump in the US and Johnson here, some politicians seem to think that utterly brazen, barefaced lies are now acceptable. They can easily stick in some people's minds if it's something they find plausible, aligns with what they already think, and they don't pay enough attention to fact-check.
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