Kingswood and Wellingborough by election results

[Nearly Sane]

I'd meant to start a thread on these before they happened but kept forgetting despite the unrelenting news coverage of them 


I went to the loo in the middle of the night and saw the Kingswood result, and thought (a) the Tories had got off lightly, (b) Labour would be slightly disappointed, and (c) Reform must be ecstatic. After Wellingborough just (c).


Obviously if I was a Tory candidate for the GE, I would be on the phone to Head Office telling them they need to do a deal with Reform, and then on the phone to the local Reform candidate to say what deal can I do with you.


I'm not sure there is a viable deal for for the first. Although Reform are a still a bit a immigrants are bad and some other stuff party, they are on the way to being the Stuff Em All party, once suggested by the late David Penhaligon. Their vote is not as Rees- Mogg laid out this morning just a disaffected Tory vote but a wider one. We might have seen that at the Rocjdale by election in 2 weeks but that's such a mess of pottage that it's psepholgically as useful as Liz Truss as PM.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68305798

[ProfessorDavey]

I went to the loo in the middle of the night and saw the Kingswood result, and thought (a) the Tories had got off lightly, (b) Labour would be slightly disappointed, and (c) Reform must be ecstatic. After Wellingborough just (c).

Not sure I agree with those conclusions when put in context.

On (b) - there have been over 500 by-elections since 1945 - in terms of swing from Con to Lab last night's results are the 2nd and 9th best from those over 500 results. So that sounds pretty impressive to me. Wellingborough was the second best result ever for Labour in terms of swing (only bettered by Dudley West in 1994). And given that these two by elections were on the same day, probably safe to say this was the best by-election night for Labour since 1945. So that sounds like a pretty exceptional result for Labour.

On Reform (obviously the UKIP/Brexit renamed) there has been a lot of talk about the surge and also the tories claiming that voters will fold back to the tories at a general election, with there being no chance that Reform would come close to the vote share they received in a general election. BUT ... the last time Reform/Brexit/UKIP stood in both these seats was the 2015 general election and then they got 19.6% in Wellingborough (compared to 13% last night) and 14.8% in Kingswood (compared to 10.4% last night). Make of that what you will, but I don't think it should necessarily reassure the tories that the Reform cote will collapse at a general election in a few months.

[Aruntraveller]

Slightly confused by the spin being applied over the turnout.

Turnout is always lower at byelections but these two compared to other notable byelections are quite respectable turnouts(37 & 38%) See below for some other byelection turnouts.

2012 Manchester Central by-election: Turnout was 18.2%
1999 Leeds Central by-election: Turnout stood at 19.6%
2022 Southend West by-election: The turnout was 24.0%
1958 Shoreditch and Finsbury by-election: The turnout recorded was 24.9%
1999 Wigan by-election: Turnout reached 25.0%
2000 Tottenham by-election: The turnout was 25.4%
2012 Cardiff South and Penarth by-election: Turnout stood at 25.7%
2016 Batley and Spen by-election: The turnout recorded was 25.8%

A large pinch of salt is needed for the Tory claims of "stay at home" syndrome.

[SteveH]

On Reform (obviously the UKIP/Brexit renamed) there has been a lot of talk about the surge and also the tories claiming that voters will fold back to the tories at a general election, with there being no chance that Reform would come close to the vote share they received in a general election. BUT ... the last time Reform/Brexit/UKIP stood in both these seats was the 2015 general election and then they got 19.6% in Wellingborough (compared to 13% last night) and 14.8% in Kingswood (compared to 10.4% last night). Make of that what you will, but I don't think it should necessarily reassure the tories that the Reform cote will collapse at a general election in a few months.

...and even if it does collapse, many of its voters may go to Labour. Many of its supporters are trad-Labour n general.

[Nearly Sane]

Not sure I agree with those conclusions when put in context.

On (b) - there have been over 500 by-elections since 1945 - in terms of swing from Con to Lab last night's results are the 2nd and 9th best from those over 500 results. So that sounds pretty impressive to me. Wellingborough was the second best result ever for Labour in terms of swing (only bettered by Dudley West in 1994). And given that these two by elections were on the same day, probably safe to say this was the best by-election night for Labour since 1945. So that sounds like a pretty exceptional result for Labour.

On Reform (obviously the UKIP/Brexit renamed) there has been a lot of talk about the surge and also the tories claiming that voters will fold back to the tories at a general election, with there being no chance that Reform would come close to the vote share they received in a general election. BUT ... the last time Reform/Brexit/UKIP stood in both these seats was the 2015 general election and then they got 19.6% in Wellingborough (compared to 13% last night) and 14.8% in Kingswood (compared to 10.4% last night). Make of that what you will, but I don't think it should necessarily reassure the tories that the Reform cote will collapse at a general election in a few months.

You are disagreeing with the conclusions I said in thd middle of the night after just Kingswood, so not disagreeing with them after Wellingborough where I removed Aand B 

As to Reform, they are their 2 best by election results. They are goimg to be courted big time by the Tories on this. 2015 is pre the refetendum and when it was effectively a single issue. It isn't any more.

[Nearly Sane]

...

A large pinch of salt is needed for the Tory claims of "stay at home" syndrome.

Full stop after claims works for me.

[jeremyp]

You are disagreeing with the conclusions I said in thd middle of the night after just Kingswood, so not disagreeing with them after Wellingborough where I removed Aand B 

As to Reform, they are their 2 best by election results. They are goimg to be courted big time by the Tories on this. 2015 is pre the refetendum and when it was effectively a single issue. It isn't any more.

Weirdly, I made the same mistake as PD on first reading your post. However, I would not have given the Tories (a) even after just Kingswood.

[Aruntraveller]

Seen elsewhere:

I see the Tories have technically lost a couple of by-elections. Just slipped into defeat.

[Nearly Sane]

Weirdly, I made the same mistake as PD on first reading your post. However, I would not have given the Tories (a) even after just Kingswood.

I suppose that depends on what you think is 'lightly'. They have been such an unmitjgated pile of useless incompetents that I think that they shouldn't be getting anywhere near that amount of votes.

[ProfessorDavey]

You are disagreeing with the conclusions I said in thd middle of the night after just Kingswood, so not disagreeing with them after Wellingborough where I removed Aand B

Fair enough. I think like JP I was a little confused by the wording of your initial post. 

As to Reform, they are their 2 best by election results.

Not true - as Brexit Party (it is the same party just renamed) they achieved nigh on 29% in the Peterborough by election in 2019. And including UKIP (accepting that Brexit/Reform is a split from the prior UKIP, rather than merely a rename) the 13% in Wellingborough would rank 16th best by-election result for UKIP/Brexit/Reform. Remember that as UKIP they actually won two by-elections, one with a vote share touching 60%.

[Nearly Sane]

Fair enough. I think like JP I was a little confused by the wording of your initial post. 
Not true - as Brexit Party (it is the same party just renamed) they achieved nigh on 29% in the Peterborough by election in 2019. And including UKIP (accepting that Brexit/Reform is a split from the prior UKIP, rather than merely a rename) the 13% in Wellingborough would rank 16th best by-election result for UKIP/Brexit/Reform. Remember that as UKIP they actually won two by-elections, one with a vote share touching 60%.

Both by elections before the referendum, and from people who were the sitting MP.

As for the connection between the parties, I'm taking it as John Curtice does here to be effectively a seperate if related party.

[SteveH]

Is Jacob Ree-Smug arguing for PR? https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/jacob-rees-mogg-drops-baffling-take-after-kingswood-by-election-loss/ar-BB1innSB

[Nearly Sane]

Is Jacob Ree-Smug arguing for PR? https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/jacob-rees-mogg-drops-baffling-take-after-kingswood-by-election-loss/ar-BB1innSB

No, just lying by misdirection.

[ProfessorDavey]

Both by elections before the referendum, and from people who were the sitting MP.

But that only relates to the two by-election victories. There are plenty of other examples of by elections where UKIP/Brexit/Reform did better than last night where those caveats don't apply.

As for the connection between the parties, I'm taking it as John Curtice does here to be effectively a seperate if related party.

Even if we accept UKIP to be a separate party last night still wasn't the best by election result for Brexit/Reform (which are undoubtedly the same party). Not even close - they achieved 28.89% in Peterborough, way higher than the best of 13% last night.

You could just have gone 'my bad, my claim that last night was their best by-election results was wrong'. But you're not big on accepting you are wrong are you NS - even when you are wrong as in this case.

[Nearly Sane]

But that only relates to the two by-election victories. There are plenty of other examples of by elections where UKIP/Brexit/Reform did better than last night where those caveats don't apply.
Even if we accept UKIP to be a separate party last night still wasn't the best by election result for Brexit/Reform (which are undoubtedly the same party). Not even close - they achieved 28.89% in Peterborough, way higher than the best of 13% last night.

You could just have gone 'my bad, my claim that last night was their best by-election results was wrong'. But you're not big on accepting you are wrong are you NS - even when you are wrong as in this case.

I take it you are writing to John Curtice to correct him?

[ProfessorDavey]

I take it you are writing to John Curtice to correct him?

Why would I - your claim is still wrong even if restricted to Brexit/Reform, which the esteemed Prof Curtice would no doubt confirm to you are the same party.

So rather than using diversionary tactics, you could simply accept that you were wrong in your claim. Last night wasn't the best by-election for the party - that happened in Peterborough when they got nearly 29% of the vote.

[Nearly Sane]

Why would I - your claim is still wrong even if restricted to Brexit/Reform, which the esteemed Prof Curtice would no doubt confirm to you are the same party.

So rather than using diversionary tactics, you could simply accept that you were wrong in your claim. Last night wasn't the best by-election for the party - that happened in Peterborough when they got nearly 29% of the vote.

To quote from the link in the OP from John Curtice

'Meanwhile, the anti-EU, anti-immigration Reform UK party had its best by-election performances by far - winning 13% in Wellingborough and 10% in Kingswood'

[ProfessorDavey]

To quote from the link in the OP

'Meanwhile, the anti-EU, anti-immigration Reform UK party had its best by-election performances by far - winning 13% in Wellingborough and 10% in Kingswood'

Then they are simply wrong.

Brexit/Reform are the same party, just with a name change. They achieved 28.89% in the Peterborough by-election - last time I looked 28.89% is somewhat better than 13%. Looks like the journo writing that piece didn't do his/her homework.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_Party_election_results
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Peterborough_by-election

So, once again you could just admit that you were wrong. No shame in that NS.

[Nearly Sane]

Then they are simply wrong.

Brexit/Reform are the same party, just with a name change. They achieved 28.89% in the Peterborough by-election - last time I looked 28.89% is somewhat better than 13%. Looks like the journo writing that piece didn't do his/her homework.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_Party_election_results
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Peterborough_by-election

So, once again you could just admit that you were wrong. No shame in that NS.

Then as suggested since it's an article by John Curtice you can write to him and tell him he's wrong.

[ProfessorDavey]

Then as suggested since it's an article by John Curtice you can write to him and tell him he's wrong.

Or you could just take responsibility for your incorrect claim, and accept you are wrong.

To be accurate (not that you seem to be interested in accuracy), the party is formally styled Reform UK: The Brexit Party making it clear that the current party is one and the same as the party that won 28.89% in Peterborough.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/19/reform-uk-goes-back-to-brexit-as-it-looks-to-seize-on-tory-troubles

[Nearly Sane]

Or you could just take responsibility for your incorrect claim, and accept you are wrong.

To be accurate (not that you seem to be interested in accuracy), the party is formally styled Reform UK: The Brexit Party making it clear that the current party is one and the same as the party that won 28.89% in Peterborough.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/nov/19/reform-uk-goes-back-to-brexit-as-it-looks-to-seize-on-tory-troubles

As I said throughout, I was taking the same view as the article from John Curtice.

[ProfessorDavey]

As I said throughout, I was taking the same viee as the article from John Curtice.

Never just trust what you read, without checking ... it could be wrong!!

And when you repeat the claim (that is wrong) and have the wrongness of the claim pointed out to you and evidenced - best to simply accept you were wrong and move on, rather than digging yourself deeper into a hole.

Are you denying that the party that achieved 13% in Wellingborough and the party that achieved 28.89% in Peterborough are the same party - because if you do I suggest you take that up with the Electoral Commission and Companies House who are both clear they are the same party.

https://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP7931
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/11694875

[Nearly Sane]

What a joy Farage is

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68314953

[Nearly Sane]

Never just trust what you read, without checking ... it could be wrong!!

And when you repeat the claim (that is wrong) and have the wrongness of the claim pointed out to you and evidenced - best to simply accept you were wrong and move on, rather than digging yourself deeper into a hole.

Are you denying that the party that achieved 13% in Wellingborough and the party that achieved 28.89% in Peterborough are the same party - because if you do I suggest you take that up with the Electoral Commission and Companies House who are both clear they are the same party.

https://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP7931

I'm going with John Curtice's take on what is the record for Reform. If you disagree with him, please take it up with him.

[ProfessorDavey]

I'm going with John Curtice's take on what is the record for Reform. If you disagree with him, please take it up with him.

I'm disagreeing with you, for the simple reason that you are wrong.

I ask again - is the party that gained 13% last night and the one that gained 28.89% in Paterborough the same?

The Electoral Commission believes they are (which I have clearly demonstrated in my link) and as we are talking about elections then the view of the Electoral Commission trumps the opinion of Prof Curtice or you.

Last night was not the best showing in a by-election for the party - that happened in Peterborough in 2019.