E-mail address to contact Admin direct is admin@religionethics followed by .co.uk.
https://x.com/TomHCalver/status/1815318877963747391?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1815318877963747391%7Ctwgr%5Edd624ab201eac02c36279efa7bb7efac213e06cc%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww1.politicalbetting.com%2Findex.php%2Farchives%2F2024%2F07%2F23%2Fwhy-things-can-get-worse-for-the-tories%2FProjection of the ratio of voters lost becasue they've died vs gained because they've attained voting age by the next election. Horrific for the tories. And this assumes voting age to be 18 rather than 16 as seems likely for the next general election.
I'd be a bit suspicious of how they calculated that.
Why?
Because demographics can be tricky things. If you are seventy, for example, you probably have a better than five in six chance of being alive at the next general election.
But I don't think that's how this is determined - it is looking at the overall age profile of 2024 tory voters and determing (from known life expectancy data) those who are less than 50% likely to be still alive in 5 years time.
Jenrick joins the scuffle.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clmypvr4p49oIn case people have forgottenhttps://news.sky.com/story/the-1bn-development-and-the-tory-donor-the-robert-jenrick-controversy-explained-12014447
And now (or at least when considered appropriate) the task of choosing a new Party leader will go to the Party membership. Remember their choice last time?The kind of people who are prepared to become members of the Conservative Party bear little resemblence to the people in the electorate in general who support Conservative policies.
Given the loss of voters to Reform, I'm not entirely clear who the electorate who support Tory policies are, and I think that's one of the problems for the Tory Party here.
This is Conservative Party members, not voters. I would like to think that all the more rabid ones have defected to Reform UK Party ltd, but, unless their membership has already lapsed they will still be eligible to vote for the new leader.
Tory leadership candidates asked to name their political hero:Badenoch: Airey NeaveCleverly: Ronald ReaganJenrick: Keith Joseph, Margaret Thatcher & Nigel LawsonPatel: ThatcherStride: John F. KennedyTugendhat: Dwight EisenhowerHmm....
All seem pretty reasonable to me, if predictable.
Voters think Tories are a bit weird, and don't have much chance of winning next election.https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/sep/02/voters-beginning-to-think-conservatives-are-weird-research-suggestsI suspect Stride will be out first, then Patel. I had been thinking that it would have been one of Badenoch/Jenrick would face off against one of Cleverly/Tugendhat but perhaps it might be Cleverly v Tugendhat looking at this. Glad to see the opinion of Jenrick matches my own.
Whoever t is, it's worth bearing n mind that the winner will probably not be the next Tory prime minister. The next Tory government is probably at least two general elections away, so there'll probably be at least two more Tory leaders before then, as in '97-'10.