Whither the Tories?

[jeremyp]

https://x.com/TomHCalver/status/1815318877963747391?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1815318877963747391%7Ctwgr%5Edd624ab201eac02c36279efa7bb7efac213e06cc%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww1.politicalbetting.com%2Findex.php%2Farchives%2F2024%2F07%2F23%2Fwhy-things-can-get-worse-for-the-tories%2F

Projection of the ratio of voters lost becasue they've died vs gained because they've attained voting age by the next election. Horrific for the tories. And this assumes voting age to be 18 rather than 16 as seems likely for the next general election.

I'd be a bit suspicious of how they calculated that.

[ProfessorDavey]

I'd be a bit suspicious of how they calculated that.

Why?

[jeremyp]

Why?

Because demographics can be tricky things. If you are seventy, for example, you probably have a better than five in six chance of being alive at the next general election.

[Nearly Sane]

Because demographics can be tricky things. If you are seventy, for example, you probably have a better than five in six chance of being alive at the next general election.

Also 5 years of Labour being the govt will impact what happens to the younger vote split. I am not sure the results from the last election, particularly the Reform vote, is close to being analysed. We may be in a time of more volatility, or the election  may have been an outlier.

[ProfessorDavey]

Because demographics can be tricky things. If you are seventy, for example, you probably have a better than five in six chance of being alive at the next general election.

But I don't think that's how this is determined - it is looking at the overall age profile of 2024 tory voters and determing (from known life expectancy data) those who are less than 50% likely to be still alive in 5 years time. And on that basis they have concluded that one in six of the people who voted tory on 4th July won't still be alive in five years.

[Nearly Sane]

Cleverly to the rescue?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv2g0z1gkzyo

[jeremyp]

But I don't think that's how this is determined - it is looking at the overall age profile of 2024 tory voters and determing (from known life expectancy data) those who are less than 50% likely to be still alive in 5 years time.

Yes we all know that they did something like that. There's no need to restate the bleedin' obvious. But how they did it is pretty important. Until I see the methodology, I will not be trusting the number, and neither should you.

For example. If you are 85 now and male, you have a better than 50% chance to make it to the next general election (see calculator below).

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07

[Nearly Sane]

Tugendhat's hat in ring


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjr4p2jwqkvo

[Nearly Sane]

Jenrick joins the scuffle.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clmypvr4p49o


In case people have forgotten

https://news.sky.com/story/the-1bn-development-and-the-tory-donor-the-robert-jenrick-controversy-explained-12014447

[jeremyp]

Jenrick joins the scuffle.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clmypvr4p49o


In case people have forgotten

https://news.sky.com/story/the-1bn-development-and-the-tory-donor-the-robert-jenrick-controversy-explained-12014447

Thanks for dredging up that story so I didn't have to.

Clearly Jenrick is well qualified.

[Nearly Sane]

Mel Strides into the frame.

I suppose if they need 10 MPs backing them we could in theory have 12 candidates at this stage if those standing signed other nominations, and that wasn't against the rules.




https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd1rp80v76lo

[Nearly Sane]

Patel joins the pretty pageant

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2lky7z7531o

[Nearly Sane]

Now they are six


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw0yr7pyzneo

[Harrowby Hall]

And now (or at least when considered appropriate) the task of choosing a new Party leader will go to the Party membership. Remember their choice last time?

The kind of people who are prepared to become members of the Conservative Party bear little resemblence to the people in the electorate in general who support Conservative policies.

[Nearly Sane]

And now (or at least when considered appropriate) the task of choosing a new Party leader will go to the Party membership. Remember their choice last time?

The kind of people who are prepared to become members of the Conservative Party bear little resemblence to the people in the electorate in general who support Conservative policies.

Given the loss of voters to Reform, I'm not entirely clear who the electorate who support Tory policies are, and I think that's one of the problems for the Tory Party here.

[Nearly Sane]

Surely it should be blue cards?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cne4k2l37rzo

[jeremyp]

Given the loss of voters to Reform, I'm not entirely clear who the electorate who support Tory policies are, and I think that's one of the problems for the Tory Party here.

This is Conservative Party members, not voters. I would like to think that all the more rabid ones have defected to Reform UK Party ltd, but, unless their membership has already lapsed they will still be eligible to vote for the new leader.

[Nearly Sane]

This is Conservative Party members, not voters. I would like to think that all the more rabid ones have defected to Reform UK Party ltd, but, unless their membership has already lapsed they will still be eligible to vote for the new leader.

I was replying to HH raising the idea that the Conservative members are substantially different from their voters, which he based around Truss's election. It may be that applies to those who voted for them this time but that a substantial number of their voters went to Reform, I'm not sure whether the Tory members and Tory voters are far apart or together.

[Nearly Sane]

Tory leadership candidates asked to name their political hero:

Badenoch: Airey Neave
Cleverly: Ronald Reagan
Jenrick: Keith Joseph, Margaret Thatcher & Nigel Lawson
Patel: Thatcher
Stride: John F. Kennedy
Tugendhat: Dwight Eisenhower

Hmm....

[jeremyp]

Tory leadership candidates asked to name their political hero:

Badenoch: Airey Neave
Cleverly: Ronald Reagan
Jenrick: Keith Joseph, Margaret Thatcher & Nigel Lawson
Patel: Thatcher
Stride: John F. Kennedy
Tugendhat: Dwight Eisenhower

Hmm....

All seem pretty reasonable to me, if predictable.

[Nearly Sane]

All seem pretty reasonable to me, if predictable.

Airey Neave is a bit odd, and three go for US Presidents, one of whom was President when Thatcher was in power, and one a Democrat who had little actual achievements. None mentioned Churchill - perhaps because they thought that was too predictable or tainted by Johnson's desperate attempts to associate himself with him. Jenrick's desperation to be interesting leads him to naming 3 people.

[Nearly Sane]

What is the point in saying you'll bring back the Rwandan policy for an election that is over 4 and half years away, rather than look to build a policy responsive to immigration at the time. This isn't policy it's cos play.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9v831dyme8o

[Nearly Sane]

Voters think Tories are a bit weird, and don't have much chance of winning next election.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/sep/02/voters-beginning-to-think-conservatives-are-weird-research-suggests

I suspect Stride will be out first, then Patel. I had been thinking that it would have been one of Badenoch/Jenrick would face off against one of Cleverly/Tugendhat but perhaps it might be Cleverly v Tugendhat looking at this. Glad to see the opinion of Jenrick matches my own.

[SteveH]

Voters think Tories are a bit weird, and don't have much chance of winning next election.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/sep/02/voters-beginning-to-think-conservatives-are-weird-research-suggests

I suspect Stride will be out first, then Patel. I had been thinking that it would have been one of Badenoch/Jenrick would face off against one of Cleverly/Tugendhat but perhaps it might be Cleverly v Tugendhat looking at this. Glad to see the opinion of Jenrick matches my own.

Whoever t is, it's worth bearing n mind that the winner will probably not be the next Tory prime minister. The next Tory government is probably at least two general elections away, so there'll probably be at least two more Tory leaders before then, as in '97-'10.

[Nearly Sane]

Whoever t is, it's worth bearing n mind that the winner will probably not be the next Tory prime minister. The next Tory government is probably at least two general elections away, so there'll probably be at least two more Tory leaders before then, as in '97-'10.

I think winning next time very unlikely but after that the relative low % vote for Labour, and the more fractured nature of voting since then makes the time after thar more murky. If they were to win back say 80 seats next time, then I could see the leader being kept on.