Well, I'll note that on the 4th of September on here I said it would be Jenrick v Cleverly.
Not sure I said said that, but it has certainly been my view since the last round of voting as Stride and likely Tugendhat voters are likely to transfer to a more moderate candidate, rather than either of Jenrick or Badenoch. And those two will split the right wing vote in the final MPs ballot meaning one more moderate candidate would make it to the final two.
The point is your position dismissed all punters, not a section of them, and yet Jenrick was favourite because the punters as a group were more thinking that Badenoch was not going to make it. So as a market they may not have been in line with my thinking but ad a market they were not taking it as likely that she would get through which is what your post implied.
Odds are, of course, a combination of the positions of the population of punters. But a market that was universally taking account of the position from 10th Sept and the voting arithmetic would not end up with Jenrick/Badenoch on a combined 90% likelihood and Cleverly on less than 10%. Sure there will be punters who understood the rules, but in order to skew the odds so much then there will be others who are betting on Badenoch (cos she's the members favourite, not recognising the strong likelihood that the members wont get a chance to vote for her) and betting on Jenrick, not because he is the most likely to get through and then win, but simply because he's in the lead from earlier rounds.
I guess the next most interesting point is whether Cleverly overtakes Badenoch (which is entirely plausible as there are 16 Stride votes to be redistributed and possibly some Tugenghat votes might leak to Cleverly as the most likely moderate). Or whether this happens in the final round - really hard to see where Badenoch picks up any further votes, but Cleverly may well have not just Strides 16 votes, but Tugendhat's 21 and he's only 7 behind Badenoch and 11 behind Jenrick.
I guess an interesting prediction is whether Cleverly actually comes top of the MPs vote in the final round with Jenrick second - quite possible from the numbers.