Whither the Tories?

[jeremyp]

I think winning next time very unlikely but after that the relative low % vote for Labour, and the more fractured nature of voting since then makes the time after thar more murky. If they were to win back say 80 seats next time, then I could see the leader being kept on.

Yes. It's not a given that losing an election ends your career as party leader. In my lifetime, Harold Wilson, Neil Kinnock and, infamously, Jeremy Corbyn all survived an election loss. Also, Michael Howard (net gain 33 seats) probably could have survived if he had not discounted himself on the grounds of age.

[Nearly Sane]

Yes. It's not a given that losing an election ends your career as party leader. In my lifetime, Harold Wilson, Neil Kinnock and, infamously, Jeremy Corbyn all survived an election loss. Also, Michael Howard (net gain 33 seats) probably could have survived if he had not discounted himself on the grounds of age.

I think of the current candidates only Stride is at all questionable on age at the next election and he's just a year older than Starmer

[Nearly Sane]

So Patel out with Jenrick and Badenoch current front runners. I suspect most of the 14 votes she got to go to Jenrick, some to Badenoch. Looks like Stride out next, and would think his votes split between Cleverly and Tugendhat. We then faff about till after the conference but I think the most likely outcome now is something like Jenrick vs Cleverly


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1d7y92n31zo

[jeremyp]

So Patel out with Jenrick and Badenoch current front runners. I suspect most of the 14 votes she got to go to Jenrick, some to Badenoch. Looks like Stride out next, and would think his votes split between Cleverly and Tugendhat. We then faff about till after the conference but I think the most likely outcome now is something like Jenrick vs Cleverly


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1d7y92n31zo

I think Jenrick is corrupt and should be in prison. So he'll probably win.

[Nearly Sane]

I think Jenrick is corrupt and should be in prison. So he'll probably win.

It does appear that that may be part of his appeal. It's been a very disappointing campaign so far, and I did not have high expectations. The continued idiotic maunderings about pulling out of the ECHR seems to come from all candidates. Badenoch's idea that the problem is that the previous govts 'governed left' is just odd. They don't seem to be doing much to avoid looking like a Nigel Farage tribute act.

[jeremyp]

This may be an example of JeremyP's Law of Diminishing Politicians.

The best people tend to rise to the top but they get cancelled by association when the leader fails. We were already pretty close to the bottom of the barrel when Sunk resigned.

We will probably have to wait a generation for a new crop of good Conservative politicians to assert themselves.

[SteveH]

This may be an example of JeremyP's Law of Diminishing Politicians.

The best people tend to rise to the top but they get cancelled by association when the leader fails. We were already pretty close to the bottom of the barrel when Sunk resigned.

We will probably have to wait a generation for a new crop of good Conservative politicians to assert themselves.

"Less bad Conservative politicians", surely?

How has this thread ended up above the stickys without becoming one? [Edit} As you were - it's back below them now.

[Nearly Sane]

This may be an example of JeremyP's Law of Diminishing Politicians.

The best people tend to rise to the top but they get cancelled by association when the leader fails. We were already pretty close to the bottom of the barrel when Sunk resigned.

We will probably have to wait a generation for a new crop of good Conservative politicians to assert themselves.

I think for a variety of reasons politicians are getting generally worse so the best is a lower standard but the Tories are also stuck with no person with much credit at all, and they don't really know what they are for either.

[jeremyp]

"Less bad Conservative politicians", surely?

Being a good politician is orthogonal to being a good person. And I don't think you're automatically a bad person just because you are a Conservative.

[Nearly Sane]

So Patel out with Jenrick and Badenoch current front runners. I suspect most of the 14 votes she got to go to Jenrick, some to Badenoch. Looks like Stride out next, and would think his votes split between Cleverly and Tugendhat. We then faff about till after the conference but I think the most likely outcome now is something like Jenrick vs Cleverly


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1d7y92n31zo

Stride out, bad round for Cleverly who picked up no votes from Patel. Now level with Tugendhat.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg339l7xkr2o

[SteveH]

I don't think you're automatically a bad person just because you are a Conservative.

I can think of a few goodish Tories, such as Edwina Currie and Arthur Gore, 8th Earl of Arron, both of whom played important roles on the way to gay equality, and Arran also campaigned against animal cruelty (I once saw him with his trousers round his ankles, but that's another story), but not many.

[Stranger]

And I don't think you're automatically a bad person just because you are a Conservative.

Reminds me of the line by Ian Banks in The Quarry "I'm not arguing there are no decent people in the Tory party, but they're like bits of sweetcorn in a turd; technically they've kept their integrity, but they're still embedded in shit."

[Nearly Sane]

Kemi Badenoch's batshit theory of class


https://news.sky.com/story/kemi-badenoch-claims-she-became-working-class-after-securing-a-job-at-mcdonalds-as-a-teenager-13217266

[Nearly Sane]

And it's all getting so boring...



https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpqzndjrvwdo

I think they lost a chance in not having one of the very few newcomers go for it
 I doubt they would have won but at least it would have injected something novel into the race.

[Nearly Sane]

Is opposing Israel unBritish?


https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg56zlge8g5o

[Nearly Sane]

Interesting set of speeches from the candidates at the Tory conference, sadly I thought Jenrick made the best speech, even though I hated its content.

[ProfessorDavey]

Interesting set of speeches from the candidates at the Tory conference, sadly I thought Jenrick made the best speech, even though I hated its content.

Didn't see the speeches, but I gather that punters have suddenly woken up to the notion that Cleverly is more likely to make it to the last two than Badenoch. Reason being that assuming Tugendhat goes out in the next round of MP votes then then the Tugendhat centrist vote will split overwhelmingly to Cleverly, while the right wing vote will be split between two remaining candidates, Jenrick and Badenoch.

In fact even if Cleverly goes out next the argument remains but the other way around, in that case the final two would be Tugendhat and one of Jenrick/Badenoch.

So not looking good for Badenoch (unless she can overtake Jenrick), even before her massive own goals on maternity benefits and throwing 10% of civil servants in jail.

[Nearly Sane]

Didn't see the speeches, but I gather that punters have suddenly woken up to the notion that Cleverly is more likely to make it to the last two than Badenoch. Reason being that assuming Tugendhat goes out in the next round of MP votes then then the Tugendhat centrist vote will split overwhelmingly to Cleverly, while the right wing vote will be split between two remaining candidates, Jenrick and Badenoch.

In fact even if Cleverly goes out next the argument remains but the other way around, in that case the final two would be Tugendhat and one of Jenrick/Badenoch.

So not looking good for Badenoch (unless she can overtake Jenrick), even before her massive own goals on maternity benefits and throwing 10% of civil servants in jail.

Yes, I think Tugendhat goes next, most of his votes go to Cleverly. Both Jenrick and Cleverly will want Badenoch out next as she's generally been the best polling amongst the members, and her speech was probably the best received in the hall but I don't think the speech will deal with her mistakes this week with the MPs. If though it is Jenrick v Cleverly, I think that Jenrick is the favourite in that.

To be fair to the 'punters', they have been well aware of that for some time, hence Jenrick has been favourite, despite Badenoch polling better than him amongst members, because the last 2 has been thought to be likely to be Jenrick vs Cleverly with Jenrick being betted on to win.

[ProfessorDavey]

To be fair to the 'punters', they have been well aware of that for some time, hence Jenrick has been favourite, despite Badenoch polling better than him amongst members, because the last 2 has been thought to be likely to be Jenrick vs Cleverly with Jenrick being betted on to win.

Not really sure they have to be honest. Since the last MPs vote some weeks ago it has been pretty likely that only one of Jenrick and Badenock would make it to the final two due to the likely transfers. Yet until the past day or so their combines probability of becoming leader has been about 90%. That makes no sense at all. Only in the past day does it appear that punters have woken up to the voting arithmetic of the contest and we are now seeing much more sensible odds, with Jenrick still favourite (51% likelihood), but Badenock having plummeted down to 12% (from about 30% just about a couple of days ago) with Cleverly now at about 30% (up from less than 10%).

Point being - you cannot become leader unless you are in the final two from the MPs rounds of voting.

[Nearly Sane]

Not really sure they have to be honest. Since the last MPs vote some weeks ago it has been pretty likely that only one of Jenrick and Badenock would make it to the final two due to the likely transfers. Yet until the past day or so their combines probability of becoming leader has been about 90%. That makes no sense at all. Only in the past day does it appear that punters have woken up to the voting arithmetic of the contest and we are now seeing much more sensible odds, with Jenrick still favourite (51% likelihood), but Badenock having plummeted down to 12% (from about 30% just about a couple of days ago) with Cleverly now at about 30% (up from less than 10%).

Point being - you cannot become leader unless you are in the final two from the MPs rounds of voting.

The betting has been on Jenrick winning
 He's mist likely to do that if Badenoch is not in the final two. There is a good chance that Cleverly will not make the final 2, and if he does, he's not favourite against either Jenrick or Badenoch. If Badenoch does make the final 2, then she would be favourite but the belief is that she isn't going to make it. In that place the odds being Jenrick, Badenoch, Cleverly then Tugendhat made sense. The bad performance of Badenoch over the last few days meant that people assumed she was less likely to near Jenrick in the vote, and so the odds of her getting through were less.

This boosts Cleverly's chance hence the change there  they were already aware that she wan't the most likely to get through and that's why Jenrick was the favourite.

Essentially the bet was that whoever of Badenoch or Jenrick got into the final was most likely to win but if that Badenoch got in she was almost certain to win, whereas with Jenrick vs Cleverley that is more up in the air.

[ProfessorDavey]

The betting has been on Jenrick winning
 He's mist likely to do that if Badenoch is not in the final two. There is a good chance that Cleverly will not make the final 2, and if he does, he's not favourite against either Jenrick or Badenoch. If Badenoch does make the final 2, then she would be favourite but the belief is that she isn't going to make it. In that place the odds being Jenrick, Badenoch, Cleverly then Tugendhat made sense. The bad performance of Badenoch over the last few days meant that people assumed she was less likely to near Jenrick in the vote, and so the odds of her getting through were less.

This boosts Cleverly's chance hence the change there  they were already aware that she wan't the most likely to get through and that's why Jenrick was the favourite.

Essentially the bet was that whoever of Badenoch or Jenrick got into the final was most likely to win but if that Badenoch got in she was almost certain to win, whereas with Jenrick vs Cleverley that is more up in the air.

That isn't the view of the UK's leading political betting site (policialbetting.com) who have been saying for some while that Badenoch is overpriced and Cleverly underpriced as many punters simply didn't understand the process and the arithmetic to get into the final two.

If Cleverly has more chance of making the final two than Badenoch, then it has been non-sense that the odds had Badenoch having a 30% chance of becoming leader and Cleverly less than 10%.

The odds seem pretty sensible now - Jenrick favourite (as he is likely to make final two and win), Cleverly second favourite (as he is also likely to make final two and although not currently favourite against Jenrick much can happen) and Badenoch way down in third as she is unlikely to make it to the members vote and if that is the case therefore cannot make it to be leader.

[Nearly Sane]

That isn't the view of the UK's leading political betting site (policialbetting.com) who have been saying for some while that Badenoch is overpriced and Cleverly underpriced as many punters simply didn't understand the process and the arithmetic to get into the final two.

If Cleverly has more chance of making the final two than Badenoch, then it has been non-sense that the odds had Badenoch having a 30% chance of becoming leader and Cleverly less than 10%.

The odds seem pretty sensible now - Jenrick favourite (as he is likely to make final two and win), Cleverly second favourite (as he is also likely to make final two and although not currently favourite against Jenrick much can happen) and Badenoch way down in third as she is unlikely to make it to the members vote and if that is the case therefore cannot make it to be leader.

Well, I'll note that on the 4th of September on here I said it would be Jenrick v Cleverly. The point is your position dismissed all punters, not a section of them, and yet Jenrick was favourite because the punters as a group were more thinking that Badenoch was not going to make it. So as a market they may not have been in line with my thinking but ad a market they were not taking it as likely that she would get through which is what your post implied.

[Nearly Sane]

I'd also point out that part of the reason for the Badenoch odds was the money that had gone on her early in the market, before there was even a race, and long before any of the votes. Most of the money since the first vote has been on Jenrick.

[ProfessorDavey]

Well, I'll note that on the 4th of September on here I said it would be Jenrick v Cleverly.

Not sure I said said that, but it has certainly been my view since the last round of voting as Stride and likely Tugendhat voters are likely to transfer to a more moderate candidate, rather than either of Jenrick or Badenoch. And those two will split the right wing vote in the final MPs ballot meaning one more moderate candidate would make it to the final two.

The point is your position dismissed all punters, not a section of them, and yet Jenrick was favourite because the punters as a group were more thinking that Badenoch was not going to make it. So as a market they may not have been in line with my thinking but ad a market they were not taking it as likely that she would get through which is what your post implied.

Odds are, of course, a combination of the positions of the population of punters. But a market that was universally taking account of the position from 10th Sept and the voting arithmetic would not end up with Jenrick/Badenoch on a combined 90% likelihood and Cleverly on less than 10%. Sure there will be punters who understood the rules, but in order to skew the odds so much then there will be others who are betting on Badenoch (cos she's the members favourite, not recognising the strong likelihood that the members wont get a chance to vote for her) and betting on Jenrick, not because he is the most likely to get through and then win, but simply because he's in the lead from earlier rounds.

I guess the next most interesting point is whether Cleverly overtakes Badenoch (which is entirely plausible as there are 16 Stride votes to be redistributed and possibly some Tugenghat votes might leak to Cleverly as the most likely moderate). Or whether this happens in the final round - really hard to see where Badenoch picks up any further votes, but Cleverly may well have not just Strides 16 votes, but Tugendhat's 21 and he's only 7 behind Badenoch and 11 behind Jenrick.

I guess an interesting prediction is whether Cleverly actually comes top of the MPs vote in the final round with Jenrick second - quite possible from the numbers.

[Nearly Sane]

Not sure I said said that...

Well you didn't say

'Well, I'll note that on the 4th of September on here I said it would be Jenrick v Cleverly.' - because that was me saying that I had said that. Have you got your quoting mixed up?