Badenoch wins Tory leadership contest.

[Steve H]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c2e7xgx11mgt
Jenrick was too generic, but Badenoch was bad enough.

[Steve H]

How is it that the Tory party, which is full of racists and misogynists, has now had four female leaders and one black one, while the much more liberal Labour and Lib Dem parties have had none of either, except as acting leader until a permanent leader was elected (Margaret Beckett)?

[Nearly Sane]

How is it that the Tory party, which is full of racists and misogynists, has now had four female leaders and one black one, while the much more liberal Labour and Lib Dem parties have had none of either, except as acting leader until a permanent leader was elected (Margaret Beckett)?

Lib Dems had Jo Swinson

[Steve H]

Five facts about KB. I was surprised by no.1: for some reason, I thought she was a barrister.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/nov/02/engineer-hacker-and-ron-desantis-fan-five-things-about-kemi-badenoch

[Nearly Sane]

Apparently Badenoch is a WEF puppet and all that conspiracy etc etc.


https://x.com/ABridgen/status/1852706468266381666

[Steve H]

I give her two years.

[Nearly Sane]

I give her two years.

What do you think might cause the Tories to change leader in two years?

[Steve H]

What do you think might cause the Tories to change leader in two years?

They've got through six since 2010, and they changed leaders quicker than I change underpants after '97.

[Nearly Sane]

They've got through six since 2010, and they changed leaders quicker than I change underpants after '97.

Not really an answer to the question.

[Maeght]

Not really an answer to the question.

Internal factions and infighting is normally the cause isn't it?

[Nearly Sane]

Internal factions and infighting is normally the cause isn't it?

Yes, but in opposition having just gone through the worst election in their history, there just seems less chance of that. In the parade of Tory leaders, the only one who was in anything like a similar situation to be kicked out was IDS. Hague lasted from after the election to losing the next one, Cameron from after the election to winning two elections.

That the final 2 was between Jenrick and Badenoch puts the Toriy MPs on the right, and the very fact that there are so few of them makes it difficult to see that splintering in such a way that they'll get rid of her. Add to.that that the loss was so catastrophic that expectations are easier managed, and I think that it's would need something like a scandal, or a huge personal error for her position to be under threat before the next election.

[jeremyp]

What do you think might cause the Tories to change leader in two years?

Bad polls and local elections is the only thing that will shift her before the next general election.

[ProfessorDavey]

Bad polls and local elections is the only thing that will shift her before the next general election.

The next election is a long time away and she only has the support of about one third of Tory MPs from the final round of the MP's vote. And actually her membership vote was far from overwhelming.

So all that might make you think she's in a pretty precarious position. What may save her is that (apparently) very quietly the 1922 committee has increased the threshold for triggering a vote of no confidence from 15% to one third. Under the old rules it would have taken only 19 MPs to trigger VONC. Now that is 40.

[Nearly Sane]

Patel as Shadow Foreign Secretary.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9n304z0x7o

[jeremyp]

The next election is a long time away and she only has the support of about one third of Tory MPs from the final round of the MP's vote. And actually her membership vote was far from overwhelming.

So all that might make you think she's in a pretty precarious position. What may save her is that (apparently) very quietly the 1922 committee has increased the threshold for triggering a vote of no confidence from 15% to one third. Under the old rules it would have taken only 19 MPs to trigger VONC. Now that is 40.

We'll see. I do understand why the 1922 Committee has changed the rules. If you only needed 19 people to trigger a vote of no confidence, Jenrick could probably muster that number pretty easily if he wanted to cause trouble.

[Nearly Sane]

Interesting about the list of jobs that might have been offered to Jenrick
 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy1vg400k5o

[ProfessorDavey]

Interesting about the list of jobs that might have been offered to Jenrick
 


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy1vg400k5o

(Shadow) Cabinet of all the (lack of) talents.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_Cabinet_of_Kemi_Badenoch

Blimey, what a list of non-entities and busted flushes.

[Nearly Sane]

(Shadow) Cabinet of all the (lack of) talents.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_Cabinet_of_Kemi_Badenoch

Blimey, what a list of non-entities and busted flushes.

Not really surprising given the number of Tories, and those who have chosen to go onto the back benches.


Just heard a very good line from IDS of all people was that one of his problems was not just that his MPs could start a fight in an empty room but that most of the time the empty room was winning.

[ProfessorDavey]

Not really surprising given the number of Tories, and those who have chosen to go onto the back benches.

True, but it really is very noticeable that the only 'big beast' in her shadow cabinet is Priti Patel (and yes I include Jenrick in that comment). There really does seem to be a paucity of talent as most of the cabinet seem to be the kind of lightweight non-entities that get rolled out for Question Time and are embarrassingly bad.

I think there is also an issue that there doesn't seem to be a hierarchy in terms of position held and prior experience etc (Patel aside). I suspect there will be plenty of the Coutinho's, Trott's and Whateley's thinking:

'why on earth are Stride and Philps in top positions when I'm in a lower ranking role. Oh, and how the hell has Badenoch ended up in the top position'. 

Doesn't bode well for shadow cabinet colleagiality and collective responsibility.

[Nearly Sane]

True, but it really is very noticeable that the only 'big beast' in her shadow cabinet is Priti Patel (and yes I include Jenrick in that comment). There really does seem to be a paucity of talent as most of the cabinet seem to be the kind of lightweight non-entities that get rolled out for Question Time and are embarrassingly bad.

I think there is also an issue that there doesn't seem to be a hierarchy in terms of position held and prior experience etc (Patel aside). I suspect there will be plenty of the Coutinho's, Trott's and Whateley's thinking:

'why on earth are Stride and Philps in top positions when I'm in a lower ranking role. Oh, and how the hell has Badenoch ended up in the top position'. 

Doesn't bode well for shadow cabinet colleagiality and collective responsibility.

I'd give Stride a pass given his performance in the election as the one Tory who was always on, and was far from an embrassament but given those who have decided to go to the back benches including Sunak, Hunt and Cleverley, to a lesser extent Tugendhat who would have had credibility in Defence, and that they have 121 MPs, I can't see any surprise.

And the weakness, is I suspect more of a motivation to collegiality than against since if they are doing well it will be a great chance of being on the front bench if they win, and if they are doing badly do you want to take over and get gubbed and kicked out, especially as any challenge then is going to see things worse.

[ProfessorDavey]

I'd give Stride a pass given his performance in the election as the one Tory who was always on, and was far from an embrassament but given those who have decided to go to the back benches including Sunak, Hunt and Cleverley, to a lesser extent Tugendhat who would have had credibility in Defence, and that they have 121 MPs, I can't see any surprise.

She's also missing Barclay, Dowden, Hinds and Mitchell. Now I'm not commenting on their competence, but they certainly seem to be in a category above all but Patel in terms of expertise and experience.

[jeremyp]

True, but it really is very noticeable that the only 'big beast' in her shadow cabinet is Priti Patel (and yes I include Jenrick in that comment). There really does seem to be a paucity of talent as most of the cabinet seem to be the kind of lightweight non-entities that get rolled out for Question Time and are embarrassingly bad.

I think there is also an issue that there doesn't seem to be a hierarchy in terms of position held and prior experience etc (Patel aside). I suspect there will be plenty of the Coutinho's, Trott's and Whateley's thinking:

'why on earth are Stride and Philps in top positions when I'm in a lower ranking role. Oh, and how the hell has Badenoch ended up in the top position'. 

Doesn't bode well for shadow cabinet colleagiality and collective responsibility.

This is an example of JeremyP's Law of Diminishing Talent. The previous administration naturally had all the best people (no don't laugh) available in it. These people are now "unavailable" due to either being associated with the previous administration and therefore being tainted or were supporters of one of KB's opponents. The situation is worsened by the disastrous election which resulted in many capable MPs being unemployed.

It won't improve until there is an influx of new, younger and more talented MPs.

[Nearly Sane]

I can't help.but think thar Johnson will.have watched what happened in the US, and thought 'Come back? Hmm....'

[ProfessorDavey]

This is an example of JeremyP's Law of Diminishing Talent. The previous administration naturally had all the best people (no don't laugh) available in it. These people are now "unavailable" due to either being associated with the previous administration and therefore being tainted or were supporters of one of KB's opponents. The situation is worsened by the disastrous election which resulted in many capable MPs being unemployed.

It won't improve until there is an influx of new, younger and more talented MPs.

But actually most of the current shadow cabinet were associated with the previous administration, albeit often in more junior jobs. In fact the only member of Badenoch's shadow cabinet who didn't serve on the front bench under Sunak is Patel.

But your point about Badenoch only appointing her supporters is somewhat telling. It suggests a lack of confidence in her abilities to lead - if you are confident you will bring in people with experience and talent even if they weren't fans of yours in the leadership election. Not to do so spells trouble as not only are these people not your fans they are also not tied into to the collective responsibility that comes with being on the front bench.

[jeremyp]

But actually most of the current shadow cabinet were associated with the previous administration, albeit often in more junior jobs. In fact the only member of Badenoch's shadow cabinet who didn't serve on the front bench under Sunak is Patel.

Yes, in more junior jobs. i.e. not the best people. There has been a steady attrition of "the best people" since the Brexit vote.

The same, incidentally, happened to Labour. We got Ed Miliband instead of David Milliband because David was part of the "discredited" New Labour government. When then got Jeremy Corbyn because Ed Miliband and all associated with him were considered to be losers.