SNP. Why Are They Thriving?

[Jack Knave]

Following current affairs I keep hearing the endless talk about the SNP getting a substantial number of seats in May, and being possible king makers. What keeps coming to mind is the talk and chatter that took place after the Scottish referendum that the SNP were now dead in the water. Why do people think that this is not what happened, and specially could our Scottish friends shed some light on what is going on with the growing support of the SNP even though the Scottish people voted to stay in the Union?

[BashfulAnthony]

Following current affairs I keep hearing the endless talk about the SNP getting a substantial number of seats in May, and being possible king makers. What keeps coming to mind is the talk and chatter that took place after the Scottish referendum that the SNP were now dead in the water. Why do people think that this is not what happened, and specially could our Scottish friends shed some light on what is going on with the growing support of the SNP even though the Scottish people voted to stay in the Union?

Maybe they've just realised there is an alternative to the unctuous Cameron or Miliband.

[Gordon]

There are a variety of reasons.

1. If you are outside Scotland it is perhaps easy to forget that the SNP are not just a fringe party - they are the government in Scotland for all the devolved powers, which are increasing following the referendum result, and I'd have to say they have done a reasonable job of it.

2. The SNP here in Scotland (and I haven't ever voted for them as yet) are clearly more competent than Scottish Labour of late, who are the only serious opposition to the SNP here, but they have imploded in recent years due to poor leadership and links with the main UK Labour party. I doubt that parachuting in Jim Murphy will be enough to save them.

3. The result of the referendum last year, and the frantic last minute interventions by Gordon Brown etc, might have achieved a No result but not by a decisive margin given that 45% of Scots wanted out of the UK. Independence is still an aim for many Scots, as the post-referendum rise in support for the SNP since then suggests, and it seems that those Labour supporters who voted Yes last September (as I did) will now switch their vote to the SNP in May (as I will).

4. The situation as regards Scottish MP's in Westminster is that should the SNP gain substantially from Labour here in Scotland the shift in numbers could be sufficient to deny Labour either an outright majority or enough seats to go into a coalition: the Tories are not a factor here, and the Lib-Dems are likely to be routed as punishment for getting into bed with the Tories, and depending on the number of SNP seats won then the SNP could have a greater influence in Westminster.

5. We are being told here that a vote for the SNP in May will keep the Tories in UK power but, and speaking for myself I think it is a risk that I'll take since I couldn't bring myself to support Labour any more. A friend of mine has a theory (his not mine!) that should the SNP weaken Labour here in Scotland, and should Labour do badly in England, that a Tory government might well encourage Scottish independence as a means of retaining power in England, Wales and NI - in that they know they have no prospect of being a major force here in Scotland so that removing Scottish seats from Westminster might give the Tories a long-term in-built majority elsewhere in the current UK.

Whatever happens it should be interesting!

     

[Anchorman]

     All three main pro indy parties showed a large increase in membership following the referendum, the largest increase being in SNP ranks, where, according to stats in December 100,000 people are now paid up members, making it the largest party in Scotland by a country mile, and one of the largest in the 'UK'.
At my local branch last month, 18 new members were listed...two of them ex-Labour councillors.

Not only did the positivity of the SNP versus the negativity of the once great Labour party contribute to the change, but the sight of Labour agreeing with Tory austerity plans after joining them in a coalition of the NO campaign has left an impression of a bankrupt movement, whether that impression is justified or not.
Couple that with the leaving shot of Johan Lamont, the former Scottish Labour leader, when she compared the Scottish Labour Party to a 'local branch office', and Labour in Scotland have a few mountains to climb if they want to recover their prestige.

As Gordon stated, up here the Tories don't figure in the equation (though if the system was PR they would), and disillusionment with the Lib Dems means they have a tough fight as well.

[Udayana]

Maybe as there is now little chance of a fully independent Scotland in the near future, Scots are happier to vote SNP and gain more autonomy and benefits within the union?

[jeremyp]

45% of the electorate is a pretty sizeable proportion.  The Tories and Labour both got enormous numbers of seats in 2010 with less than 45% of the vote.

[Follower of Jesus]

Politics of hate always thrive

[Follower of Jesus]

45% of the electorate is a pretty sizeable proportion.  The Tories and Labour both got enormous numbers of seats in 2010 with less than 45% of the vote.

It wasn't 45% of the electorate thoguh

[Anchorman]

Politics of hate always thrive

Which parties promulgate such policies in Scotland, Dolores?

[jakswan]

5. We are being told here that a vote for the SNP in May will keep the Tories in UK power but, and speaking for myself I think it is a risk that I'll take since I couldn't bring myself to support Labour any more. A friend of mine has a theory (his not mine!) that should the SNP weaken Labour here in Scotland, and should Labour do badly in England, that a Tory government might well encourage Scottish independence as a means of retaining power in England, Wales and NI - in that they know they have no prospect of being a major force here in Scotland so that removing Scottish seats from Westminster might give the Tories a long-term in-built majority elsewhere in the current UK.

I think that is interesting, I get the vague sense that prior to the vote then the majority of English people would have been in favour of Scotland staying in but this is changing!

Actually playing strategy it would make sense for the Tories to have a no in a EU referendum, if that happens Scotland would be in a tricky situation.

[Gordon]

5. We are being told here that a vote for the SNP in May will keep the Tories in UK power but, and speaking for myself I think it is a risk that I'll take since I couldn't bring myself to support Labour any more. A friend of mine has a theory (his not mine!) that should the SNP weaken Labour here in Scotland, and should Labour do badly in England, that a Tory government might well encourage Scottish independence as a means of retaining power in England, Wales and NI - in that they know they have no prospect of being a major force here in Scotland so that removing Scottish seats from Westminster might give the Tories a long-term in-built majority elsewhere in the current UK.

I think that is interesting, I get the vague sense that prior to the vote then the majority of English people would have been in favour of Scotland staying in but this is changing!

Actually playing strategy it would make sense for the Tories to have a no in a EU referendum, if that happens Scotland would be in a tricky situation.

There are probably more 'what ifs' around this election than previously because of the potential impact on Labour here in Scotland, and elsewhere too, combined with the probable implosion of the Lib-Dems. My view is that UKIP are clowns full of noise and bluster who receive far more coverage that they merit, and even if they do gain a few seats in England it will be a lot less than the potential gain in seats that the SNP might achieve here in Scotland. It looks to me like we are in for a game of political musical chairs.

When it comes to a EU referendum if the Tories do retain power after May then, and I'm sure I read this somewhere recently, the results would be available separately for each of the UK countries and if Scotland, along with its increased SNP representation, voted to stay in the EU and England didn't it seems possible that the UK simply couldn't continue.

[jeremyp]

45% of the electorate is a pretty sizeable proportion.  The Tories and Labour both got enormous numbers of seats in 2010 with less than 45% of the vote.

It wasn't 45% of the electorate thoguh

If I substitute "people who voted" for "electorate" the point still stands.

[dadvokat]

The price of oil is expected to go down to 40 dollars a Barrel. How will Scotland sustain itself without UK subsidising their students, free prescriptions and other welfare handouts?

[jakswan]

There are probably more 'what ifs' around this election than previously because of the potential impact on Labour here in Scotland, and elsewhere too, combined with the probable implosion of the Lib-Dems. My view is that UKIP are clowns full of noise and bluster who receive far more coverage that they merit, and even if they do gain a few seats in England it will be a lot less than the potential gain in seats that the SNP might achieve here in Scotland. It looks to me like we are in for a game of political musical chairs.

I was shocked UKIP got 10% of the vote in Scotland last EU election!

When it comes to a EU referendum if the Tories do retain power after May then, and I'm sure I read this somewhere recently, the results would be available separately for each of the UK countries and if Scotland, along with its increased SNP representation, voted to stay in the EU and England didn't it seems possible that the UK simply couldn't continue.

Yes I think a yes vote and its inevitable that Scotland will leave the Union and become independent, free to reapply or remain in the EU as they see fit.

[Hope]

Actually playing strategy it would make sense for the Tories to have a no in a EU referendum, if that happens Scotland would be in a tricky situation.

Yes, I think that is what the majority of Tory MPs want from a EU referendum - a vote to stay in Europe.  That would help silence the Tory MPs who would like to see us out of it, UKIP and the SNP since any push for independence could be countered by saying that the majority of Scots want to stay in the EU, something that independence couldn't guarantee.

[jeremyp]

Actually playing strategy it would make sense for the Tories to have a no in a EU referendum, if that happens Scotland would be in a tricky situation.

Yes, I think that is what the majority of Tory MPs want from a EU referendum - a vote to stay in Europe.  That would help silence UKIP and the SNP since any push for independence could be countered by saying that the majority of Scots want to stay in the EU, something that independence couldn't guarantee.

But if the UK in general voted for leaving the EU and Scotland voted to stay, there might be a problem. 

[Rhiannon]

The price of oil is expected to go down to 40 dollars a Barrel. How will Scotland sustain itself without UK subsidising their students, free prescriptions and other welfare handouts?

The oil price will recover. But it's boom and bust on steroids.

[ProfessorDavey]

There are a variety of reasons.

1. If you are outside Scotland it is perhaps easy to forget that the SNP are not just a fringe party - they are the government in Scotland for all the devolved powers, which are increasing following the referendum result, and I'd have to say they have done a reasonable job of it.

2. The SNP here in Scotland (and I haven't ever voted for them as yet) are clearly more competent than Scottish Labour of late, who are the only serious opposition to the SNP here, but they have imploded in recent years due to poor leadership and links with the main UK Labour party. I doubt that parachuting in Jim Murphy will be enough to save them.

3. The result of the referendum last year, and the frantic last minute interventions by Gordon Brown etc, might have achieved a No result but not by a decisive margin given that 45% of Scots wanted out of the UK. Independence is still an aim for many Scots, as the post-referendum rise in support for the SNP since then suggests, and it seems that those Labour supporters who voted Yes last September (as I did) will now switch their vote to the SNP in May (as I will).

4. The situation as regards Scottish MP's in Westminster is that should the SNP gain substantially from Labour here in Scotland the shift in numbers could be sufficient to deny Labour either an outright majority or enough seats to go into a coalition: the Tories are not a factor here, and the Lib-Dems are likely to be routed as punishment for getting into bed with the Tories, and depending on the number of SNP seats won then the SNP could have a greater influence in Westminster.

5. We are being told here that a vote for the SNP in May will keep the Tories in UK power but, and speaking for myself I think it is a risk that I'll take since I couldn't bring myself to support Labour any more. A friend of mine has a theory (his not mine!) that should the SNP weaken Labour here in Scotland, and should Labour do badly in England, that a Tory government might well encourage Scottish independence as a means of retaining power in England, Wales and NI - in that they know they have no prospect of being a major force here in Scotland so that removing Scottish seats from Westminster might give the Tories a long-term in-built majority elsewhere in the current UK.

Whatever happens it should be interesting!

   

Interesting observations and I'd mostly agree.

But on 4 - be careful what you wish for. Sure the Tories aren't in the game in Scotland, but all this means is that redistributing seats in Scotland merely moves around the non Tory seats between other parties. Given that pretty well all political observers think we will be in hung parliament territory again after May the issue will be whether we end up with a Tory lead coalition (or minority) government or a Labour lead coalition (or minority) government. Nothing else is really likely given the polls.

Who is in government will likely depend on which of Labour or the Tories have most seats. So every seat the SNP takes off Labour is one seat nearer to ensuring a Tory lead government after the election.

So ask yourself which would be better for the UK and for Scotland:

1. A 2010 GE election result where the SNP end up with 40 seats and that means the Tories are the largest party and the government is Tory lead with UKIP support (perhaps).

or

2. A 2010 GE election result where the SNP end up with 20 seats and that means Labour are the largest party and the government is Labour lead with SNP support (perhaps).

[Hope]

But if the UK in general voted for leaving the EU and Scotland voted to stay, there might be a problem.

Having discussed this with friends and family across England Wales, I get the impression that the UK (or at least England and Wales) will vote to stay in.  Don't know about N. Ireland.  As for Scotland, there seems to have been a dichotomy; vote for independence and, at least for a time, an exit from Europe or vote to remain as part of the UK and give a bigger majority for the UK to stay in Europe.

[Hope]

So ask yourself which would be better for the UK and for Scotland:

1. A 2010 GE election result where the SNP end up with 40 seats and that means the Tories are the largest party and the government is Tory lead with UKIP support (perhaps).

or

2. A 2010 GE election result where the SNP end up with 20 seats and that means Labour are the largest party and the government is Labour lead with SNP support (perhaps).

Neither, PD, but I'd rather see a Tory-led coalition that made sure that UKIP, the SNP and Labour were all out of the picture.  Highly unlikely to occur, but at least that would provide for a constructive tension within Government, rather than having a coalition of the left that wouldn't question some basic attitudes.  The irony is that, of the 9 or 10 'biggish' parties (Tory, Labour, Lib-Dem, Green, UKIP, SNP, Plaid, DUP, Sinn Fein and the SDLP) only 3 are clearly right of centre.  The SNP were traditionally just about right of centre, but moved towards the other side of the centre in recent years.

[ProfessorDavey]

So ask yourself which would be better for the UK and for Scotland:

1. A 2010 GE election result where the SNP end up with 40 seats and that means the Tories are the largest party and the government is Tory lead with UKIP support (perhaps).

or

2. A 2010 GE election result where the SNP end up with 20 seats and that means Labour are the largest party and the government is Labour lead with SNP support (perhaps).

Neither, PD, but I'd rather see a Tory-led coalition that made sure that UKIP, the SNP and Labour were all out of the picture.  Highly unlikely to occur, but at least that would provide for a constructive tension within Government, rather than having a coalition of the left that wouldn't question some basic attitudes.  The irony is that, of the 9 or 10 'biggish' parties (Tory, Labour, Lib-Dem, Green, UKIP, SNP, Plaid, DUP, Sinn Fein and the SDLP) only 3 are clearly right of centre.  The SNP were traditionally just about right of centre, but moved towards the other side of the centre in recent years.

This wasn't aimed at you, because obviously you aren't a voter in Scotland so not faced with this dilemma.

The point I was making is that there is a lot of discussion about the best way to ensure the greatest influence for Scotland and for the SNP following the general election in terms of voting strategy for people (like Gordon) who are traditionally Labor but considering the SNP in May.

Of those 2 scenarios the one with the most influence for Scotland and potentially the SNP would be where there is a Labour lead government supported (perhaps even in coalition) with the SNP.

[OH MY WORLD!]

Europe is rediscovering nationalism

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/europe-rediscovers-nationalism

[Nearly Sane]

Europe is rediscovering nationalism

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/europe-rediscovers-nationalism

Which is in terms of the SNP irrelevant given that its policies are the polar opposite of what is being covered in the article.

[OH MY WORLD!]

Really Mr. Nearly, didn't that SNP just try to end it's union with the rest of the UK? Sounds a bit nationalistic to me. You now the far left and the far right have much in common. Just as communism and fascism do.

[Nearly Sane]

Really Mr. Nearly, didn't that SNP just try to end it's union with the rest of the UK? Sounds a bit nationalistic to me. You now the far left and the far right have much in common. Just as communism and fascism do.

Yes, it tried to end the union but it was also supporting staying in Europe, increasing immigration and indeed one of the charges from the Unionist parties was that it would enter the Schengen agreement - so in terms of the article you linked to and how it classified nationalism, essentially ethnic, rather than civic the complete opposite.

Are you saying that when the Baltic states broke away from the Soviet Union they were being communist? Or Fascist?