Margaret Ferrier: Covid train trip MP loses appeal over Commons ban

[Nearly Sane]

So possibility of a recall by election. It's worth noting that the people on the committee who originally voted for a suspension of less than 10 days which would not have allowed a recall were the SNP member, and the Tories. The self interest of the SNP is obvious but the Tories were of course trying to set a precedent on such an issue which would mean that Johnson might get less than 10 days for any similar charge.

One other thing to note is the length of time taken here os absurd.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65671806

[Nearly Sane]

Absurder and absurder


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65702313

[Nearly Sane]

And Starmer happy to lie about the situation


https://twitter.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1662041145738706944?t=p2sUTjbLTJNUD53amITxQA&s=19

[Nearly Sane]

So the 30 day suspension approved. Not quite as sure as the report is that a by election is almost certain now. Likely, I think, but a recall petition is something that needs a fair bit of work to achieve.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65702252

[ProfessorDavey]

So the 30 day suspension approved. Not quite as sure as the report is that a by election is almost certain now. Likely, I think, but a recall petition is something that needs a fair bit of work to achieve.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65702252

In 2019 about 29,000 people voted for a party other than the SNP - a recall petition only needs about 8000 to trigger a by-election. I think it is pretty well locked on. There have been three similar recall petitions since the act was passed - two were successful with roughly double the number of signatures needed at least.

The Antrim one is the anomaly - but NI politics is weird and doesn't easily map onto the rest of the UK.

I suspect she may simply jump before she is pushed, by resigning as an MP, but if she does hold out for a recall petition she will find the recall petition is comfortably passed.

[Nearly Sane]

In 2019 about 29,000 people voted for a party other than the SNP - a recall petition only needs about 8000 to trigger a by-election. I think it is pretty well locked on. There have been three similar recall petitions since the act was passed - two were successful with roughly double the number of signatures needed at least.

The Antrim one is the anomaly - but NI politics is weird and doesn't easily map onto the rest of the UK.

I suspect she may simply jump before she is pushed, by resigning as an MP, but if she does hold out for a recall petition she will find the recall petition is comfortably passed.

Voting isn't the equivalent of signing up for a recall petition. And you seem to have missed that my qualification isn't saying that it isn't likely to happen, rather that I think 'pretty certain' is an overstatement.


And none of that addresses Starmer lying about the constituents being unrepresented since Ferrier was suspended, or do you think that he thinks, and that it is true that those in Islington haven't been represented since Corbyn's suspension?

[ProfessorDavey]

Voting isn't the equivalent of signing up for a recall petition.

Which is why I compared the situation with previous recall petitions.

In Peterborough in the previous general election approx. 24,000 people voted for parties other than Labour (whose MP was then subject to the recall) - in the petition 19,000 signed the petition for recall. So the petition got nigh on 80% of those voter numbers.

In Brecon in the previous general election approx. 20,000 people voted for parties other than Labour (whose MP was then subject to the recall) - in the petition 10,000 signed the petition for recall. So the petition got 50% of those voter numbers.

Even in North Antrim - in the previous general election approx. 17,000 people voted for parties other than Labour (whose MP was then subject to the recall) - in the petition 7,000 signed the petition for recall. So the petition got over 40% of those voter numbers.

In Rutherglen the petition only needs to get about 27% of those voter numbers to be successful.

[Nearly Sane]

Which is why I compared the situation with previous recall petitions.

In Peterborough in the previous general election approx. 24,000 people voted for parties other than Labour (whose MP was then subject to the recall) - in the petition 19,000 signed the petition for recall. So the petition got nigh on 80% of those voter numbers.

In Brecon in the previous general election approx. 20,000 people voted for parties other than Labour (whose MP was then subject to the recall) - in the petition 10,000 signed the petition for recall. So the petition got 50% of those voter numbers.

Even in North Antrim - in the previous general election approx. 17,000 people voted for parties other than Labour (whose MP was then subject to the recall) - in the petition 7,000 signed the petition for recall. So the petition got over 40% of those voter numbers.

In Rutherglen the petition only needs to get about 27% of those voter numbers to be successful.

Which for a lot of words ignores what I wrote, again

[ProfessorDavey]

Which for a lot of words ignores what I wrote, again

No it doesn't ignore what you wrote.

In the spectrum of probabilities you imply a successful recall petition is 'likely' but not 'almost certain'. I think you are wrong and the BBC is correct that it is 'almost certain' - and I have given the evidence to back this up based on the three previous ones. This one needs to get a far smaller proportion of the non incumbent parties supporters, just 27% to be successful, while previous ones have attained 40%, 50% and 80%.

To me the only way there isn't a successful recall petition is if Ferrier stands down as an MP.

The interesting question isn't if she will be able to continue as an MP, but whether the incumbent party, the SNP are able to hold onto the seat with a new candidate in a by-election. This was the case in Peterborough, but not in Brecon where the Tories put up Davies again, but he lost. Surely the SNP would be mad to allow Ferrier to stand in a by-election.

[Nearly Sane]

No it doesn't ignore what you wrote.

In the spectrum of probabilities you imply a successful recall petition is 'likely' but not 'almost certain'. I think you are wrong and the BBC is correct that it is 'almost certain' - and I have given the evidence to back this up based on the three previous ones. This one needs to get a far smaller proportion of the non incumbent parties supporters, just 27% to be successful, while previous ones have attained 40%, 50% and 80%.

To me the only way there isn't a successful recall petition is if Ferrier stands down as an MP.

The interesting question isn't if she will be able to continue as an MP, but whether the incumbent party, the SNP are able to hold onto the seat with a new candidate in a by-election. This was the case in Peterborough, but not in Brecon where the Tories put up Davies again, but he lost. Surely the SNP would be mad to allow Ferrier to stand in a by-election.

Well apart from still ignoring the comment on Starmer lying, you never mentioned definition of what 'pretty certain' as opposed to likely even meant till now. So yes, you did, and do ignore what is being written   

BtW if you think the SNP are supporting Ferrier here, you are just showing your ignorance of Scottish politics.

[ProfessorDavey]

Well apart from still ignoring the comment on Starmer lying,

Other opinions are available.

But actually you never mentioned Starmer at all in the post (reply3) which I was replying to. So if you want to move the goalposts that's up to you, but if it is all the same to you I'll play according to the goalpost position on the post I was replying to.

... you never mentioned definition of what 'pretty certain' as opposed to likely even meant till now.

Nor did you - but the difference is that I actually provided some evidence on how previous recall petitions have played out to support a view that a petition will be successful. You on the other hand seem to base your just 'likely' but not 'pretty certain' on absolutely nothing.

BtW if you think the SNP are supporting Ferrier here, you are just showing your ignorance of Scottish politics.

Oh - here we go again. Firstly where did I ever claim that the SNP would back her as a candidate if she loses a recall petition. Oh, I didn't - what I said was that they'd be mad to do so, just as the Tories were mad to do so in Brecon. But to be fair to the Tories they were breaking new ground - the SNP would have the history of what happened in Brecon. And of course the SNP aren't supporting Ferrier as they've kicked her out (as Labour did in Peterborough, but the Tories didn't in Brecon).

However none of this has anything to do with specific knowledge of Scottish politics, rather than westminster politics and the experiences of recall petitions (which we have experience in England, Wales and NI so far).

[Nearly Sane]

Other opinions are available.

But actually you never mentioned Starmer at all in the post (reply3) which I was replying to. So if you want to move the goalposts that's up to you, but if it is all the same to you I'll play according to the goalpost position on the post I was replying to.
Nor did you - but the difference is that I actually provided some evidence on how previous recall petitions have played out to support a view that a petition will be successful. You on the other hand seem to base your just 'likely' but not 'pretty certain' on absolutely nothing.
Oh - here we go again. Firstly where did I ever claim that the SNP would back her as a candidate if she loses a recall petition. Oh, I didn't - what I said was that they'd be mad to do so, just as the Tories were mad to do so in Brecon. But to be fair to the Tories they were breaking new ground - the SNP would have the history of what happened in Brecon.

However none of this has anything to do with specific knowledge of Scottish politics, rather than westminster politics and the experiences of recall petitions (which we have experience in England, Wales and NI so far).

So your ignoring what I said about Starmer didn't happen till I said something about Starmer???

And you missed reply no2?

[ProfessorDavey]

So your ignoring what I said about Starmer didn't happen till I said something about Starmer???

And you missed reply no2?

Did I reply to reply 2 - hmm. Nope my comment was about the likelihood of a successful recall petition in response to reply 3.

But onto other matters - you compared Ferrier to Corbyn - poor comparison - Ferrier has been suspended from parliament as well as from the SNP, as far as I'm aware Corbyn has never been suspended from parliament, only from the Labour party. So there isn't equivalence.

[Nearly Sane]

Did I reply to reply 2 - hmm. Nope my comment was about the likelihood of a successful recall petition in response to reply 3.

But onto other matters - you compared Ferrier to Corbyn - poor comparison - Ferrier has been suspended from parliament as well as from the SNP, as far as I'm aware Corbyn has never been suspended from parliament, only from the Labour party. So there isn't equivalence.

So you said I didn't mention something, because when I did a later reply wasn't about that?

And then you ignore the point of the comment? So to help ypu out. Was Rutherglen represented while Ferrier wlis an MP,

Is Islington represented while Corbyn is an MP?

[ProfessorDavey]

So you said I didn't mention sonething, because when I did a later reply wasn't about that?

You didn't mention it in the post I replied to - that you might have mentioned it in another post is irrelevant - if I'd wanted to discuss that matter I'd have replied to that post, but I didn't.

And then you ignore the point of the comment? So to help ypu out. Was Rutherglen represented while Ferrier wlis an MP,

Is Islington represented while Corbyn is an MP?

Is Corbyn suspended from parliament or just from the Labour party. Has he had the likelihood of being suspended from parliament hanging over his political career for months/years. Answer no:yes:no

Is Ferrier suspended from parliament or just from the SNP. Has she had the likelihood of being suspended from parliament hanging over her political career for months/years. Answer yes:yes:yes

It really isn't hard to see the difference.

And also while I am no fan of Corbyn (I resigned from the party because of him), he has represented Islington through thick and thin for 40 years. Ferrier had a brief spell as Rutherglen MP for less than 2 years from 2015 to 2017. Since her re-election in late 2019 she has been mired in this controversy (with its pretty obvious conclusion hanging over her) for all but the first few months.

I imagine the people of Rutherglen will be glad to see the back of her, either through the recall petition or if she does the honourable thing and just resigns as an MP.

As I said earlier the interesting thing here is whether the SNP can hold the seat at a by-election. I think that is pretty unlikely given the recent turmoil in the SNP although not impossible if they were to select the right candidate.

[Nearly Sane]

You didn't mention it in the post I replied to -

I did. Try reading the posts again, and stop lying

[ProfessorDavey]

I did. Try reading the posts again, and stop lying

Reply 3 in full:

'So the 30 day suspension approved. Not quite as sure as the report is that a by election is almost certain now. Likely, I think, but a recall petition is something that needs a fair bit of work to achieve.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65702252'

Hmm - no mention of Starmer. Oh and just for completeness the BBC link doesn't mention Starmer beyond the analysis mentioning a by-election being a significant test for him and Sarwar. Certainly no quote from Starmer.

I replied to this comment as I did not agree with your view on the likelihood of the recall being successful, which I did in reply 4. When you replied to my comment on reply3 you then mention Starmer - I ignored this as it was completely irrelevant to the point I was making - namely the likelihood of a recall petition being successful.

NS - perhaps you hadn't realised that when someone comments on another poster's post they aren't obliged to also comment on any previous post on the same thread. Nor if a poster goes off on an irrelevant tangent to the point the two were discussing is that person obliged to comment on, or even quote, that irrelevant part.

Oh and you do love accusing others of lying when they aren't, don't you Chip. Just for reference a lie is deliberately/knowingly telling a demonstrable falsehood (such as implying that reply 3 mentioned Starmer) - it isn't an opinion you disagree with, such as disagreeing with Starmer's opinion on whether the people of Rutherglen had been represented well.

[ProfessorDavey]

So let's move back on to matters more interesting than your ability to start a fight in an empty room.

What do you think the SNP's chances are of holding the seat in the by-election which is almost certain to happen.

This really is high stakes for both SNP and Labour - for the SNP to lose, particularly if they lose badly, would embed the chaos of the last few months with the voters.

If Labour fail to regain the seat (remember they held it as recently as 2017-19) would suggest that any resurgence in Scotland had stalled before it started. Labour clearly have pretty well all the trump cards to play, including a candidate in place, so a defeat would be all the worse.

My view is that Labour should win, and they should win comfortably. You can see how this provides an easy opportunity for voters to give the SNP a good kicking for what they've put everyone through, but safe in the knowledge that a by-election victory for Labour doesn't change all that much. The SNP could, however upset the apple-cart but they key issue will be whether they have a really exciting candidate - ideally local and a bit of a star. But somehow this seems unlikely or that person would already be the MP, given that Ferrier is hardly a long-standing MP.

[Nearly Sane]

Reply 3 in full:

'So the 30 day suspension approved. Not quite as sure as the report is that a by election is almost certain now. Likely, I think, but a recall petition is something that needs a fair bit of work to achieve.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65702252'

Hmm - no mention of Starmer. Oh and just for completeness the BBC link doesn't mention Starmer beyond the analysis mentioning a by-election being a significant test for him and Sarwar. Certainly no quote from Starmer.

I replied to this comment as I did not agree with your view on the likelihood of the recall being successful, which I did in reply 4. When you replied to my comment on reply3 you then mention Starmer - I ignored this as it was completely irrelevant to the point I was making - namely the likelihood of a recall petition being successful.

NS - perhaps you hadn't realised that when someone comments on another poster's post they aren't obliged to also comment on any previous post on the same thread. Nor if a poster goes off on an irrelevant tangent to the point the two were discussing is that person obliged to comment on, or even quote, that irrelevant part.

Oh and you do love accusing others of lying when they aren't, don't you Chip. Just for reference a lie is deliberately/knowingly telling a demonstrable falsehood (such as implying that reply 3 mentioned Starmer) - it isn't an opinion you disagree with, such as disagreeing with Starmer's opinion on whether the people of Rutherglen had been represented well.

Yep really sorry, I meant reply 3 in the sense of 3rd post on the thread. Would say knock yourself out but I see you already have.

[ProfessorDavey]

Yep really sorry,

Apology accepted.

I meant reply 3 in the sense of 3rd post on the thread.

Then I think you need to read what others actually write and what comments of yours they are replying to before you start making unfounded accusations of lying - and you do that far too often NS. And not just against me, but others - see my next comment.

[ProfessorDavey]

And none of that addresses Starmer lying about the constituents being unrepresented since Ferrier was suspended ...

You need to base your accusations on what Starmer actually said - not your misrepresentation.

Look at the link and watch the video:

https://twitter.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1662041145738706944?t=p2sUTjbLTJNUD53amITxQA&s=19

Starmer did not say that the constituents of Rutherglen were unrepresented, he did not say they had no representation (a claim you imply in reply13). No - what he said was that they 'had no effective representation'. There is a world of difference between saying they were unrepresented than having no effective representation. The latter is clearly a opinion expressed about the quality of the representation. Now others might disagree but it is a perfectly legitimate opinion to consider that Ferrier is unable to effectively represent her constituents.

The point being that firstly you misrepresented what Starmer actually said and then used that misrepresentation to accuse him of lying which isn't appropriate when discussing someones opinion, which is, err, just an opinion and not something that can be definitively determined to be true or false, which is clearly the precursor for an accusation of lying.

Bottom line - Starmer did not lie - be expressed an opinion - you might disagree with him but that doesn't mean he lied.

Second bottom line - you misrepresented what Starmer actually said - and we can all see that misrepresentation as we can all watch the video and compare his actual words to your misrepresentation.

[jeremyp]

Voting isn't the equivalent of signing up for a recall petition. And you seem to have missed that my qualification isn't saying that it isn't likely to happen, rather that I think 'pretty certain' is an overstatement.


And none of that addresses Starmer lying about the constituents being unrepresented since Ferrier was suspended, or do you think that he thinks, and that it is true that those in Islington haven't been represented since Corbyn's suspension?

If a constituency MP is suspended then that constituency is unrepresented. It's not a lie but it's also not uncommon for constituencies to be unrepresented. If an MP dies, they don't hold the by-election the next day. If an MP goes to Australia to take part in IACGMOOH, they don't necessarily hold a by-election because the constituency is unrepresented. If the MP is a lazy fucker or a senior government member or some combination of the two, they don't hold a by-election.

[Nearly Sane]

If a constituency MP is suspended then that constituency is unrepresented. It's not a lie but it's also not uncommon for constituencies to be unrepresented. If an MP dies, they don't hold the by-election the next day. If an MP goes to Australia to take part in IACGMOOH, they don't necessarily hold a by-election because the constituency is unrepresented. If the MP is a lazy fucker or a senior government member or some combination of the two, they don't hold a by-election.

No, they are represented by the MP. They elect an MP not a party. If an MP changes party the electorate are not unrepresented. 

[jeremyp]

I am going to partially walk back on some of the previous post.

Starmer said that Ferrier's constituents have had no effective representation for three years. This can only be referring to her suspension from the SNP in 2020. He called it a fact but I would argue that being an effective MP is not contingent on being a member of a political party. In fact, I could make an argument that not being a member of a political party could make you more effective in representing the interests of your constituents.

Jeremy Corbyn has also been suspended from his political party for three years and so Starmer should be equally concerned for the effective representation of Corbyn's constituents. Corbyn's and Ferrier's positions are very similar but with the difference that Ferrier will be subject to a recall petition and so may lose her job before the next general election. There can be no recall of Corbyn because he doesn't meet any of the triggering conditions for a recall petition. Starmer and the Labour NEC have already done as much as they can to get rid of him.

[jeremyp]

No, they are represented by the MP. They elect an MP not a party. If an MP changes party the electorate are not unrepresented.

Our posts crossed, but just to clarify: Ferrier is suspended from parliament. She is also suspended from the SNP. It was the former suspension to which I refer.